Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland

UFC 312: Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland Prediction

Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland Prediction 2/8/2025

Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland Prediction – The middleweight strap is on the line, and we’ve got a certified banger on our hands at UFC 312 as Dricus du Plessis takes on Sean Strickland. This isn’t just another title fight; it’s a clash of styles, attitudes, and a whole lot of bad blood. Du Plessis, the relentless pressure fighter with a 91% finishing rate, squares off against the methodical, trash-talking Strickland, who thrives on volume striking and durability. If you’re looking for a sharp betting angle, you’re in the right place.

Let’s break this one down and find the best value on the board.

 

 

Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland Prediction: Recent Performance & Trends

Dricus du Plessis (22-2) is riding a wave of momentum. The South African standout claimed the middleweight title in a grueling war against Strickland at UFC 297, winning by split decision. That fight showed his toughness, but it also revealed some defensive holes. Before that, he steamrolled Robert Whittaker with a TKO and brutally stopped Darren Till. The guy doesn’t just win—he finishes fights.

Meanwhile, Sean Strickland (29-6) has been one of the most active fighters in the division. He lost his belt to du Plessis, but before that, he dominated Israel Adesanya in a shocking upset. He’s also secured solid wins over Jack Hermansson and Uriah Hall, proving that his volume striking and defensive shell can frustrate elite strikers.

Matchup Breakdown: Offense vs. Defense

Striking

  • Du Plessis: Heavy-handed, aggressive, unpredictable. He lands 6.73 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 4.84, meaning he’s willing to eat shots to land his own.
  • Strickland: A volume striker who lands 6.10 per minute while absorbing just 4.10. His Philly Shell defense is tough to crack, and he rarely gets hit clean.

Grappling & Cardio

  • Du Plessis: A strong wrestler with underrated submission skills. He averages 2.35 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a solid gas tank, though his explosive style can lead to fatigue in later rounds.
  • Strickland: A defensive wrestler who stuffs 84% of takedowns. He doesn’t initiate grappling much but has solid cardio and maintains a steady pace for five rounds.

Key Factor: Leg Kicks

Du Plessis has a 2-inch leg reach advantage and throws powerful kicks. Strickland’s narrow stance has made him vulnerable to leg attacks in the past. If du Plessis targets the legs early, he could limit Strickland’s movement and set up big shots upstairs.

Betting Trends & Market Analysis

  • Du Plessis is 5-0 in his last five fights, all inside the distance except his last win over Strickland.
  • Strickland has gone to decision in 6 of his last 8 fights.
  • The over 3.5 rounds has hit in 7 of Strickland’s last 10 fights.
  • Strickland is 8-2 in his last 10 fights as a favorite.
  • Du Plessis has a 91% finish rate, while Strickland’s is only 52%.

The books have Strickland as a -135 favorite, with du Plessis sitting at +115. This line suggests the oddsmakers are favoring Strickland’s durability and volume over du Plessis’ power and aggression.

X-Factors & Situational Angles

  • Rematch Factor: Strickland has proven he can adjust in rematches, but du Plessis’ unique, unorthodox style is hard to prepare for.
  • Octagon Control: Strickland thrives when he can dictate the pace. If du Plessis starts fast and forces him into a firefight, Strickland could struggle.
  • Judging: UFC judging often favors volume over damage. If du Plessis doesn’t get a finish, Strickland’s high output could win rounds.

Final Prediction & Betting Pick

This fight is closer than the odds suggest, and du Plessis’ power, pressure, and leg kicks give him real paths to victory. However, Strickland’s durability, cardio, and volume make him a tough puzzle to solve over five rounds.

Best Bets:

Fight to Go the Distance: NO (-120) – Du Plessis’ kill-or-be-killed style makes a finish likely. 

Du Plessis via KO/TKO (+250) – Strickland’s defense is solid, but if he gets caught, du Plessis can swarm him for a stoppage. 

Over 2.5 Rounds (-150) – Strickland is notoriously tough to finish, and du Plessis’ recent fights have seen longer exchanges.

Final Verdict: Live Dog Alert

This is a classic clash of styles, and if you’re looking for value, du Plessis at plus money is the play. Strickland’s style makes him a tough out, but at +115, the South African’s finishing ability is worth a shot.

Official Pick: Dricus du Plessis (+115) – Small sprinkle on Du Plessis by TKO.