Buffalo vs Kansas City Prediction
Buffalo vs Kansas City Game Information
Story: | Buffalo vs Kansas City Prediction 1/26/2025 NFL Picks |
What: | AFC Championship Game |
When: | Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 6:30 EST/3:30 PST |
Where: | Arrowhead Stadium (Northbridge Bermudagrass), Kansas City, Missouri |
Buffalo vs KC Line: | Chiefs -2 |
Total: | 47.5 |
TV: | CBS, Paramount+ |
Buffalo vs Kansas City Preview
Championship Sunday concludes with the AFC Championship Game on Sunday from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium with the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs (15-2, 8-0 at Home in Regular Season) hosting the Bills (13-4, 5-4 on Road). The Bills won the AFC East and headed in as the No. 2-seeded team and defeated the Broncos in the Wild Card Round and the AFC North champion Ravens in the Divisional Round while the No. 1-seeded and AFC West champion Chiefs enjoyed a Bye in the opening Round and then ousted the Texans in the Divisional Round last weekend. DraftKings has the Chiefs at +220 to win the Super Bowl with the Bills at +260. Super Bowl LIX will be played on Sunday, February 9 at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana (FOX, 6:30 EST/3:30 PST).
In their last 6 games, the Bills are 5-1, beating the Lions by 6 (48-42), the Patriots by 3 (24-21), the Jets by 26 (40-14), losing at New England by 7 in the Regular Season finale (23-16), eliminating Denver in the AFC Wild Card Round by 24 (31-7), and then holding on by 2 vs the Ravens (27-25) last weekend. In their last 6 games, the Chiefs are 5-1, beating the Chargers by 2 (19-17), the Browns by 14 (21-7), the Texans by 8 (27-19), and the Steelers by 19 (29-10) before losing at Denver by 38 (38-0) with HC Andy Reid resting all of his Starters and not caring about the Win/Loss with the No. 1 seed already clinched, and then disposing of Houston by 9 in the Divisional Round (23-14) last weekend.
Bills Find a Familiar Foe in AFC Championship Game
The Bills (12-7-0 ATS, 11-6-2 O/U) survived a Mark Andrews drop on a 2-Point Conversion Attempt to oust Baltimore, so now Buffalo (+110 Moneyline) will have to beat the two-time defending NFL champion Chiefs and then the Eagles vs Redskins NFC Championship Game winner to finally get that elusive Super Bowl win. Buffalo is 0-4 in its 4 Super Bowl appearances. But the Bills have beaten some pretty good teams this year, including this AFC top-seeded Chiefs team, the defending NFC champion 49ers, and the NFC’s top-seeded Lions, now watching the NFC Championship game at home after losing.
The Buffalo Offense (30.9 PPG, #2) is led by superstar QB Josh Allen (3,731 Passing Yards, 28 TD, 76.6 QBR in Regular Season; +280 to be Super Bowl MVP, DraftKings), RB James Cook (1,009 Rushing Yards, 16 TD), and WR Khalil Shakir (76 Receptions, 821 Receiving Yards, 4 TD). The Bills are very balanced with the No. 9 Rushing attack (131.2 YPG) and the No. 9, Passing attack (227.9 YPG), and the No. 11 (tied) Scoring Defense (21.6 PPG). Buffalo ranks No. 1 in the NFL in Turnover Differential (+24) and had 471 Yards of Total Offense vs the Broncos (3 TD, 3 FG) but just 273 vs Baltimore (416 Total Yards), with the Ravens 3 TOs being the big reason that they lost.
Buffalo Bills Betting Trends
- Buffalo is 9-2-0 SU in its last 11 games overall
- The Bills lost to the Chiefs in 2020 AFC Championship Game (38-24)
- Buffalo went a perfect 10-0-0 SU at Home at Highmark Stadium
- The Bills went 1-0-0 vs the AFC West (beat Chiefs 30-21)
- The Over is 6-2-2 in the last 10 Bills games overall
- Buffalo is 11-3-0 vs the AFC in the 2024-25 NFL season
Chiefs Still Counting on Their Legendary Clutch QB
Kansas City (8-10-0 ATS, O/U 7-11-0) always gets criticized every season for how they get to this point. One season it’s the Offense saving the Defense, the next it’s the Defense saving the Offense, and this season it’s the stigma that the Chiefs (-130 Moneyline) have gotten lucky to win many of their games and that the Referees actually have a different set if Rules for Patrick Mahomes and the champions. This is literally heard on the Radio and at the Grocery store (today). However the Chiefs (15-2 SU overall) are doing it, they have prioritized just winning as the be-all and end-all. Unbeaten at Home (9-0), Kansas City is led by the usual suspects, QB Mahomes (3,928 Passing Yards, 26 TD, QBR 69.0), RB Kareem Hunt (728 Rushing Yards, 7 TD) and TE Travis Kelce (823 Receiving Yards, 3 TD), with veteran Kelce rising to the occasion last week vs the Texans, catching 7 Passes for 117 yards and a TD, his TD early in the 4th Quarter extending the hosts lead to 20-12. ESPN announced that this game had 32,7 million viewers—the most-watched game on the popular network in NFL history. That’s big.
In the Regular Season, Kansas City averaged 22.6 PPG (#15) and allowed 19.2 PPG (#4) and averaged 222.4 Passing Yards (#14) and 105.3 Rushing Yards (#22). Head Coach Andy Reid has said that WRs Mecole Hardman (IR) and Skyy Moore (IR) will remain on the IR List, as may WR Rashee Rice (IR), so the Chiefs will need to get some help from guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, and Isaiah Pacheco who had 0 Receptions in the Win over the Texans. Only Kelce, fellow TE Noah Gray, WR Xavier Worthy and RB Kareem Hunt had Receptions in the AFC Divisional Round. Kansas City was No. 10 in Turnover Differential (+6), so not letting the Bills win the TO battle on Sunday will be massive.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends
- The Chiefs had a +59 Point Differential; BUF was +157
- Patrick Mahomes is now 7-0 in the AFC Divisional Round
- Kansas City is 3-7-0 ATS in its last 10 games overall
- Patrick Mahomes still has 0 TOs in the Divisional Round
- The Under is 7-3-0 in the last 10 Chiefs games
- Patrick Mahomes is 16-3 SU lifetime in the NFL Playoffs
- Patrick Mahomes is 4-4 SU lifetime vs Josh Allen
Buffalo vs Kansas City Prediction
These two teams are about as even as you can be, with both 5-5 SU and 5-5-0 ATS and the Bills 3-1-0 ATS in the last 4 with the Over 6-4, clicking in the last 2 meetings (51, 51), although by less than one TD both times (5.5, 3.5). When these two met in Buffalo on November 17 this season, the Bills won 30-21 and covered as 2.5-Point Home Favorites. Last season, Kansas City eliminated Buffalo at Highmark Stadium in the AFC Divisional Round, 27-24, winning outright as 2.5-Point Road Underdogs. The Bills have won 3 of the last 4 series meetings but just can’t seem to beat Mahomes and the Chiefs in the Playoffs.
And every time that Buffalo beats Kansas City in the Regular Season, it ends up losing to them in the Playoffs, so this Buffalo vs Kansas City NFL pick will look for more Mahomes Magic, with guys like Hopkins, Brown, Pacheco, Hunt, Gray, and of course Kelce all doing what they can to help outscore a very potent Buffalo side. Nick Bolton (106 Tackles), Chris Jones (37 tackles) and the Chiefs Defense and the Arrowhead Home Site—Kansas City’s last Loss at Home was to the Raiders on Christmas Day 2023—will provide too much for this Bills side with Mahomes (+280 to be Super Bowl MVP) and his determined teammates keeping everything simple. For those who like the weird stuff, the Chiefs are a remarkable 17-3 when Taylor Swift attends their games and the musical icon is expected to be there again on Sunday.