Ohio State vs Notre Dame Prediction
Ohio State vs Notre Dame Game Information
What: | College Football Playoff National Championship Game |
When: | Monday, January 20, 2025 at 7:30 EST/4:30 PST |
Where: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium (FieldTurf CORE), Atlanta, Georgia |
Ohio State vs Notre Dame Line: | Ohio State -8.5 |
Total: | 45.5 |
TV: | ESPN |
Radio: | SiriusXM—OSU (Channel 81), ND (Channel 84), National (ESPN Radio, Channel 80) |
Ohio State vs Notre Dame Preview
The first-ever College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championship Game Presented by AT&T will see No. 8-seed Ohio State (13-2, 7-2 in Big Ten) playing No. 7-seed Notre Dame (14-1) from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Monday night for all of the marbles. This is the first season of the 12-team CFP field and none of the top four seeded teams who earned Byes even survived it to the Semifinals. The Buckeyes 2 Losses were both in the Big Ten Conference and were to then-No. 1 Oregon and their fierce rivals, Michigan, while the Fighting Irish’s lone loss was to the Mid-American Conference’s Northern Illinois in one of the biggest upsets of the FBS season.
In their last 5 games, the Ohio State is 4-1, beating Indiana by 23 (38-15), losing to Michigan by 3 at Home at The Shoe (13-10), and then beating Tennessee by 25 in the CFP First Round (42-17), Oregon by 20 in the CFP Quarterfinals (41-21), and Texas by 14 in the CFP Semifinals (28-14). In their last 5, the Fighting Irish are a perfect 5-0, beating Army by 35 (49-14), USC by 14 (49-35), Indiana by 10 in the CFP First Round (27-17), Georgia by 13 in the CFP Quarterfinals (23-10), and Penn State by 3 in the CFP Semifinals (27-24). Sportsbook DraftKings has Ohio State at -360 to the Favorites to win the CFP with Notre Dame priced at +280. In next year’s 2025-26 CFP Championship game winner Futures market, Ohio State is at +450 and the Favorites with Notre Dame priced at 16/1.
Ohio State May Be Own Worst Enemy in CFP Final
Ohio State (9-6-0 ATS, 7-8-0 O/U) has allowed over 17 points only two times—in a 32-31 thriller to No. 1 Oregon in one of the best games of the year and in the Semifinals rematch with the Ducks. The Buckeyes shut out Western Michigan and Purdue and allowed just 7 points to Michigan State, Iowa, and Northwestern and have been the top Defense in FBS almost all season, allowing just 12.2 PPG. The Buckeyes (-380 Moneyline) not only have a stout D, but the O is pretty effective as well, averaging 37.4 PPG (#8) with skill guys like QB Will Howard, RBs Trevon Henderson and RB Quinshon Judkins, WRs Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate. This team is loaded and healthy.
Head Coach Ryan Day has Ohio State playing as well as they have all season but this team can go invisible at the worst times in some games. The Buckeyes eliminated Texas in the Semifinals (28-14), ousted Oregon (41-21) in the Quarterfinals and vaporized Tennessee at Home in the First Round (42-17). The big question here is how focused the Buckeyes will be and this has been the best team this season so expect them to come in strong on both sides of the ball and take a lead they may ultimately never give up.
Ohio State Betting Trends
- Ohio State is 46-8 SU in its last 54 games overall
- Of those 8 Losses, 4 were to Michigan, 2 to Oregon (+ GA, MIZ in Bowls)
- The Buckeyes have scored 111 points in their last 3 games (37.0 PPG)
- The Under is 8-4-0 in the last 12 Ohio State games
- Ohio State is 6-2-0 ATS in its last 8 games overall
Notre Dame Holds an 11-Game ATS Winning Streak
Notre Dame (13-2-0 ATS, 8-7-0 O/U) has a chance to be the team with both the CFP trophy and the FBS ATS trophy should the Fighting Irish (+300 Moneyline) somehow win and cover this game. Notre Dame ousted Penn State, Georgia, and Indiana in this CFP, holding them to a combined 51 points as the Fighting Irish Defense (14.3 PPG, #2) continued to hold it down. ND has now covered ATS 10 consecutive times and passed Arizona State (12-2) for the best ATS mark in FBS. The last ATS Loss came vs Miami Ohio on September 21 so the Fighting Irish went all Fall (and all Winter so far) without losing a game to the betting number but do have issues playing teams from the MAC.
Notre Dame prefers to run the football (210.8 YPG, #8) and is led QB Riley Leonard (2,383 Passing yards, 18 TD, 6 Interceptions; 831 Rushing yards, 15 TD, 5.6 ypc) and RBs Jeremiyah Love (1,076 Rushing yards, 16 TD, 7.3 ypc) and Jadarian Price (720 Rushing yards, 7 TD, 6.5 ypc). When the Fighting Irish do Pass (194.3 YPG, #102), WR Beaux Collins (458 Receiving yards, 3 TD, 12.4 YPC) is the top target. Head Coach Marcus Freeman and ND have been dealing with an Injury to Love (11 Rushes, 46 Yards, TD vs PSU)—he will be wearing a heavy Knee Brace again—and the Independent Underdogs will need Love at his best to have any chance in this game.
Notre Dame Betting Trends
- Notre Dame has now covered 11 straight games ATS
- The Fighting Irish are 0-2-0 ATS vs the MAC in the 2024-25 NCAAB season
- ND has won its last 10 games by 3, 13, 10, 14, 35, 21, 49, 37, 18, and 42
- The Under is 2-1-0 in Notre Dame’s 3 CFP games
- The Fighting Irish are a perfect 7-0 vs Ranked Teams
- ND is 4-1-0 ATS in their last 5 in the First Half (+2.95 Units, 50% ROI)
- The Fighting Irish are 13-0 SU in their last 13 games
Ohio State vs Notre Dame Prediction
The last 3 times these two College Football icons played, Ohio State has gone 3-0, although Notre Dame has covered ATS as the Underdog the last 2. The last meeting came on September 23, 2023 at South Bend, and it was a low-scoring grinder won by the Buckeyes 17-14 (Total 56) in a game where the hosts closed as 3.5-Point Underdogs, so they covered ATS by just 0.5 point and that hair on their chinny-chin-chin. When the two met a year earlier at The Horseshoe, Ohio State won by 11 (21-10), but the Fighting Irish got the butter again, covering ATS as big 15-Point Road Underdogs in a game that went Under the closing Total of 58.5 by 37.5 points. Mercy. The Buckeyes outgained Notre Dame in all 3 meetings but this version of the Fighting Irish is the best in decades but then again that could be said about this Ohio State squad.
This Ohio State vs Notre Dame NCAAF pick is a tough one, with the two best Defenses in the country colliding and the Point Spread so high. The thought for this CFP National Championship Game is that the Buckeyes have the better Defense, ND’s Love is likely less than 100%, Ohio State has more weapons and a big chip on its shoulders, especially much-maligned HC Day, who has done nothing to deserve the kind of wrath he received from some delusional and rabid Buckeyes fans. (Fans is short for fanatics.) Here Ohio State should score 24 to 32 points with Notre Dame struggling to put 17 on the scoreboard. It will probably be close to the Point Spread, but I like the Buckeyes winning by 10 (27-17).