Houston vs Kansas City Prediction
Houston vs Kansas City Game Information
Story: | Houston vs Kansas City Prediction 1/18/2025 NFL Picks |
What: | AFC Divisional Playoffs |
When: | Saturday, January 18, 2025 at 4:30 EST/1:30 PST |
Where: | Arrowhead Stadium (Northbridge Bermudagrass), Kansas City, Missouri |
Houston vs KC Line: | Chiefs -8.5 |
Total: | 41.5 |
TV: | ESPN, ABC, ESPN+ |
Houston vs Kansas City Preview
The 2025 NFL Playoffs resume on Saturday with two games, followed by two more on Sunday in the Divisional Round. The first game of NFL Divisional Playoffs Weekend sees the Houston Texans (10-7, 5-4 on Road) in Kansas City to face the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs (15-2, 8-0 at Home) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The Texans won the AFC South and headed in as the No. 4-seeded team and defeated the Chargers in the Wild Card Round in Houston last Saturday. The Chiefs are the No. 1 seed in the AFC and enjoyed a Bye and a well-earned Rest last week. DraftKings has the Chiefs priced at +350 to win the Super Bowl with the Texans the biggest longshots at 55/1. Super Bowl LIX is scheduled to be played on Sunday, February 9 at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, (FOX, 6:30 EST/3:30 PST).
In their last 5 games, the Texans are 3-2, beating the Dolphins by 8 (20-12), losing back-to-back games at these Chiefs by 8 (27-19) and the Ravens by 29 (31-2), and then beating the worst team in the NFL, the Titans by 9 in their last Regular Season game (23-14) before eliminating the Chargers by 20 last week (32-12). In their last 5, the Chiefs went 4-1, beating the Chargers by 2 (19-17), the Browns by 14 (21-7), the Texans by 8 (27-19), and the Steelers by 19 (29-10) before losing at Denver by 38 (38-0) where Andy Reid had all of his Starters resting and not caring about the Win/Loss with the No. 1 seed already clinched.
Houston Back in the AFC Divisional Round Again
The Texans (8-8-2 ATS, 7-10-1 O/U) regressed this season, losing to the miserable Titans (3-14) and the Jets (5-12) and playing some weaker opposition and beating the Patriots, Bears, Jaguars, and Colts for 4 of their last 5 Wins. But Houston (+375 Moneyline) did have 5 of its Losses to NFL Playoff teams (Lions, Vikings, Packers, Chiefs, Ravens). On Offense (21.9 PPG, #19), the Texans are led by QB CJ Stroud (3,727 Passing yards, 20 TD, 50.0 QBR in Regular Season), RB Joe Mixon (1,016 Rushing yards, 11 TD), and star WR Nico Collins (68 Receptions, 1,006 Receiving yards, 7 TD). After having a breakout season in 2023, Stroud has devolved this season and his 50.1 QBR has him ranked No. 24 behind even the Panthers Bryce Young (54.0, No. 20).
The Texans ranked No. 21 in Passing (207.4 YPG) and No. 15 in Rushing (112.3 YPG), so it has been up to the Defense (21.9 PPG, #14) to keep Houston in games. The Texans have a number of Injured guys including WRs Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell (both on Injured Reserve) and now TE Cale Stover (Collarbone) who hurt himself in the Wild Card Round victory over the Chargers, meaning Teagan Quitoriano (Calf) needs to come off the IR (he practiced Tuesday) and Dalton Schultz (Shoulder, Questionable) needs to also be ready. G Shaq Mason (Knee) will not be playing on Saturday.
Houston Texans Betting Trends
- Houston is just 5-5-0 in its last 10 games overall
- The Texans are 2-0-0 ATS in their last 2 games
- Houston went just 5-6-0 SU out of the AFC South
- The Over is 2-0-0 in the last 2 Texans games
- Houston had a 0 Regular Season Point Differential (372 PF-372 PA)
Chiefs Path to a 3rd Straight Title Starts Right Here
Kansas City (8-9-0 ATS, O/U 7-10-0) has been planning for this game for weeks and everyone knows how dangerous Kansas City Head Coach Andy Reid is when given the Time to prepare and his elite players an additional week of Rest. With no Starters involved in Week 18, the Chiefs are as well-rested as a team can be and head in here unbeaten at Home. The Chiefs (-500 Moneyline) are led by QB Patrick Mahomes (3,928 Passing yards, 26 TD, QBR 69.0). RB Kareem Hunt (728 Rushing yards, 7 TD) and TE Travis Kelce (823 Receiving yards, 3 TD), and should KC win here, it will get the winner of the Ravens-Bills AFC Divisional Game next week. In the Props market, Kelce is +750 to be the First TD Scorer with the TE priced at +170 Anytime Scorer and 11/1 for 2+ TDs.
The Chiefs average 22.6 PPG (#15) and allow 19.2 PPG (#4) and average 222.4 Passing Yards (#14) and 105.3 Rushing Yards (#22). WRs Rashee Rice (Out) and Mecole Hardman (IR) are hurt and DT Marion Tuipulotu and CB Jaylen Watson (Lower Leg) are on IR but Watson and Hardman both practiced on Tuesday. Kansas City is No. 10 in Turnover Differential (+6) with Houston at No. 6 (+10). The Texans had 3 Turnovers vs the Chargers but 4 takeaways. Mahomes won’t be giving the ball away on Saturday afternoon.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends
- The Chiefs had a +59 Point Differential; LAC was +101, DEN +114
- Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 in the Divisional Round
- Kansas City was 1-0-0 SU/ATS against the AFC South this season (TEX)
- Patrick Mahomes has 0 TOs in the Divisional Round
- Patrick Mahomes is 15-3 SU lifetime in the NFL Playoffs
Houston vs Kansas City Prediction
These two teams played earlier this season and the Chiefs won 27-19 at Arrowhead, scoring in every Quarter (7-10-7-3) and committing 0 TOs with 375 Total Yards and 25 First Downs. This Point Spread opened up at (Chiefs minus) 8, and has now ticked up to 8.5 in most online sportsbooks (Wednesday) and may eventually reach 9 closer to kickoff. The hosts have a lot going for them here, Expectations, Rest, the better O, the better D, and the legendary Postseason QB with even better Receivers at his disposal this year (Rookie WR Xavier Worthy 59/638/6/10.8, WR DeAndre Hopkins 41/437/4/10.7, WR Hollywood Brown).
This Houston vs Kansas City NFL pick will look for guys like Pachecho, Hunt, Kelce, and Hopkins to step up and one guy who can never be stopped is Chiefs RDT Chris Jones who is a huge reason this team has won the last two Lombardi Trophies. The Texans will be lucky to get 2 TDs here and will likely be limited to more FG Attempts and score around 16-18 with the Chiefs likely to get (at least) 4 TDs and 2 FGs (34 points) en route to any easy advancement to the AFC Championship Game where the natives will be very restless. With Reid having so much time to game plan and no Kansas City Starters playing since Christmas Day, this team has an awful lot going for them including the crowd and the perfect Home Record. The Chiefs last Loss at Home was to the Raiders on Christmas Day 2023.