LA Chargers vs Houston Prediction
LA Chargers vs Houston Game Information
| Story: | LA Chargers vs Houston Prediction 1/11/2025 NFL Picks |
| What: | AFC Wild Card Playoffs |
| When: | Saturday, January 11, 2025 at 1:30 EST/10:30 PST |
| Where: | NRG Stadium (Hellas Matrix Helix), Houston, Texas |
| LA Chargers vs Houston Line: | Chargers -3 |
| Total: | 42.5 |
| TV: | CBS, Paramount+ |
LA Chargers vs Houston Preview
The 2025 NFL Playoffs kick off on Saturday with two games, followed by three on Sunday and one on Monday night. The first game of Wild Card Weekend sees the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6, 6-3 on Road) in Houston to face the Texans (10-7, 5-3 at Home) at NRG Stadium. The AFC West’s Chargers qualified as the No. 5 Wild Card seed while the Texans won the AFC South and head in as the No. 4-seeded team in the AFC. The winner will face the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs next weekend (Jan. 18 or 19) at Arrowhead Stadium in the Divisional Round. DraftKings has the Chargers priced at 28/1 to win the Super Bowl with the host Texans big longshots at 80/1. Super Bowl LX is scheduled to be played on Sunday, February 9 at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, (FOX, 6:30 EST/3:30 PST).
In their last 5 games, the Chargers have gone 3-2, losing back-to-back games to two other NFL playoffs teams, the Chiefs by 2 (19-17) and the Buccaneers by 23 (40-17), and then winning their last three against the Broncos by 7 (34-27), at the Patriots by 33 (40-7), and at the Raiders by 14 (34-20), so LA has played two of the league’s worst teams heading into the Wild Card game in the Lone Star State. In their last 5, the Texans are also 3-2, beating the Jaguars by 3 (23-20) and the Dolphins by 8 (20-12), losing back-to-back games at the Chiefs by 8 (27-19) and the Ravens by 29 (31-2), and then beating the worst team in the NFL, the Titans by 9 in their last game of the 2024-25 NFL Regular Season (23-14). So whoever plays the Chiefs—Chargers 0-2 vs KC, Texans 0-1 vs KC—they will have already lost to them at least one time this season.
Chargers Head into Wild Card Tied For Best ATS Record
The Chargers (12-5-0 ATS, 8-9-0 O/U) made a smart move hiring Head Coach Jim Harbaugh from the college ranks (Michigan), as Los Angeles made the NFL Playoffs this season after missing out in 2023 with a 5-12-0 Record and a last-place finish in the AFC West. The Chargers (-155 Moneyline) are also tied with their divisional counterparts, the Broncos for having the best Against The Spread (ATS) mark in the NFL and this team also has the best Scoring Defense at 17.7 PPG. But when looking at the Chargers schedule, it’s hard not to notice that this team only beat one Playoff team (Denver) and feasted on some of the worst teams in the NFL, beating the Raiders twice, the Titans, Panthers, Browns, and Patriots. But Los Angeles’s Losses did mostly come to Playoff teams (Chiefs twice, Broncos, Steelers, Ravens and Buccaneers). This is all less than inspiring for making it far.
On offense (23.6 PPG, #11), the Chargers are led by star QB Justin Herbert (3,870 Passing yards, 23 TD, 67.5 QBR), RB JK Dobbins (905 Rushing yards, 9 TD), and Rookie WR Ladd McConkey (82 Receptions, 1,149 Receiving yards, 7 TD). The Bolts average 213.5 Passing Yards (#19) and 110.7 Rushing Yards (#17) per game. Dobbins is listed as Questionable (but should be playing) and has been less than impressive in the second half of the season after starting out the season with two straight 100+ yard games. LA is a bit banged up with RB Gus Edwards (Ankle), WR Quentin Johnson (Thigh), LB Denzel Perryman (Groin), and CB Ja’Sir Taylor all listed as Questionable with WR Simi Fehoko (Elbow) on Injured Reserve. All but Taylor were limited participants at the Chargers practice on Tuesday.
Los Angeles Chargers Betting Trends
- The Chargers have the best ATS Record in the NFL (12-5-0)
- Los Angeles is 3-0 SU/ATS in its last 3 games (DEN, NE, LV)
- The Chargers are 5-2-0 their last 7 meetings vs the Texans
- The Over is 4-0-0 in the Chargers last 4 games
- Los Angeles is 5-2-0 ATS in its last games overall
- The Chargers are 6-3-0 SU on the Road this season
Houston in Rare Home Underdog Role in AFC WC Round
The Texans (7-8-2 ATS, 6-10-1 O/U) just weren’t the same dominating team we saw last year with the 5-1 Record vs the weak AFC South the main reason this team won the division (again). And like the Chargers, Houston (+130 Moneyline) played some very weak opposition, beating the Patriots, Bears, Jaguars, and Colts for 4 of its last 5 Wins to get to 10 Wins. Five of the Texans (+130 Moneyline) Losses were to NFL Playoff teams (Lions, Vikings, Packers, Chiefs, Ravens) though, but Houston also lost to the miserable Titans (3-14) and the Jets (5-12).
On offense (21.9 PPG, #19), the Texans are led by QB CJ Stroud (3,727 Passing yards, 20 TD, QBR, RB Joe Mixon (1,016 Rushing yards, 11 TD), and star WR Nico Collins (68 Receptions, 1,006 Receiving yards, 7 TD). After having a breakout season in 2023, Stroud has regressed this campaign and his 50.2 QBR has him ranked No. 24 behind the Panthers Bryce Young (54.5, No. 20). That is not good. This team ranks No. 21 in Passing (207.4 YPG) and No. 15 in Rushing (112.3 YPG), so it has been up to the Defense (21.9 PPG, #14) to keep them in games. The Texans also have a number of Injured guys including DE Denico Autry (Knee), DT Folorunso Fatukasi (Ankle), LB Christian Harris (Ankle) CB Jeff Okudah (Concussion), and CB D’Angelo Ross on Defense and WR John Metchie III (Shoulder) on Offense. WRs Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are both on the Injured Reserve.
Houston Texans Betting Trends
- Houston is just 5-5-0 in its last 10 games overall
- The Texans are 1-2-0 ATS in their last 3 games
- Houston went just 5-6-0 SU out of conference
- The Texans are 1-3-0 SU/ATS vs the Chargers the last 4 in Houston
- The Under is 3-1-1 in Houston’s last 5 Home games
- Houston has a 0 Point Differential (372 PF-372 PA)
LA Chargers vs Houston Prediction
It seems strange to win your division, be at Home, yet be an Underdog in an NFL Playoffs game, but that’s exactly the position the Texans find themselves in against a Chargers team who are reborn under new HC Harbaugh and playing in now one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, the AFC West, who like the NFC North have three teams playing in this Postseason (Lions, Vikings, Packers). Six of the 14 teams in these NFL Playoffs are either from the AFC West (Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers) or the NFC West. Here, the big question will be can the Texans score against the NFL’s stingiest defense, and with Mixon and Collins, Stroud has two pretty good weapons. Both teams were very good in Turnover Differential with the Chargers at +12 and the Texans at +10. LA’s 9 Giveaways was the second-best in the NFL behind the Bills (8), so Harbaugh has made sure this team takes care of the football. Hebert has only thrown 3 Interceptions while Stroud has an ugly 12.
In the last 7 series meetings, the Chargers have gone 4-3 and 5-2-0 ATS, winning the last meeting in 2022 here in Houston, 34-24 and covering ATS as 5.5-Road Favorites in a game that went way Over the closing Total of 44.5 at open-air, retractable NRG Stadium. Points may be few and far-between in this first game of the Playoffs but the last 2 meetings have gone Over. But those games weren’t half as important as this one. This LA Chargers vs Houston NFL pick will lean to the visitors and suggest shopping around for a (Chargers minus) 2.5 with 2.5’s and 3’s now in the market (Wednesday) and the line likely to tick up to 3 by kickoff. The Texans will run Mixon heavily and the Chargers will look for McConkey a lot, but in the end it should be the team with more Confidence, the better Defense and the better QB who moves on to play the resting champion Chiefs.