Dayton vs Massachusetts Prediction

Dayton vs Massachusetts Prediction

Dayton (11-4, 1-1 in A-10) heads to Amherst, Massachusetts to play Massachusetts (5-10, 0-2 in A-10) in an Atlantic 10 Conference battle from the Mullins Center on Wednesday. In their last 5 games, the Flyers are 3-2, beating Marquette by 8 (71-63), UNLV by 1 (66-65), losing to Cincinnati by 7 (66-59), beating La Salle by 14 (84-70), and then losing to George Washington by 20 (82-62). In their last 5, the Minutemen went 2-3, beating Massachusetts-Beacon by 34 (86-52) and Northeastern by 5 (77-72), and then lost three straight to Arizona State by 16 (78-62), Saint Joseph’s by 9 (81-72), and Richmond by 8 (72-64). Online sportsbook DraftKings currently has Dayton priced at 130/1 to capture the 2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament.

Dayton Looking For 9th Straight Win vs UMass

Dayton (8-6-0 ATS, 9-4-1 O/U) has been a strong Over team this season and the Flyers are led by F Nate Santos ( 14.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG), G Enoch Cheeks (12.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.8 SPG), G Malachi Smith (11.6 PPG, 5.8 APG), F Zed Key (11.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG), G Javon Bennett (8.7 PPG), G Posh Alexander (6.5 PPG, 2.9 APG), F Amael L’Etang (5.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG), and F Jacob Conner (3.9 PPG). The Flyers average 76.6 PPG (Tied-#157) and allow 67.9 PPG, 16.5 APG (#67), and 3,5.8 RPG (Tied-#238). Last year Dayton finished No. 24 in the Top 25 rankings, went 14-4 in the A-10 and 25-8 overall. The Flyers beat Nevada in the First Round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament (63-60) and then lost to Arizona in the Round of 32 by 9 (78-69) in the West Regional.

Dayton Betting Trends

• Dayton is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games (Losses to CIN, GW)
• The Flyers are 5-5-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall
• Dayton was 16-16-1 ATS in the 2023-24 NCAAB season (50%)
• The Over is 7-3-0 in the Flyers’ last 10 games
• The Over is 2-0-0 in Dayton’s last 2 games
• Dayton is 0-4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall

Massachusetts Scuffling Now, Both SU and ATS

Massachusetts (5-9-0 ATS, 8-5-1 O/U) heads in here losers of 3 straight games, and the Minutemen haven’t been very good against the betting number. UMass is led by G Rahsool Diggins (13.6 PPG, 2.9 APG), G Jaylen Curry (12.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.5 APG), F Daniel Rivera (11.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG), F Daniel Hankins-Sanford (9.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG), F Malek Abdelgowad (6,4 PPG, 5.2 RPG), and G Jayden Ndjigue (4.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG). The Minutemen average 73.5 PPG (#241) and give up 75.0 PPG and average 38.7 PPG (Tied-#73) and 13.5 APG (Tied-#241). Last year, Massachusetts went 11-7 (20-11 overall) in A-10 play and 13-3 at Home.

Massachusetts Betting Trends

• Massachusetts is 3-6-0 ATS in the last 9 lined games 
• The Over is 5-2-0 in the Minutemen’s last 7 games
• UMass is 4-4 at Home this 2024-25 NCAAB season
• The Minutemen are 1-6-0 ATS in their last 7 games at Home
• UMass-Dayton has alternated ATS wins in the last 6 meetings 

Dayton vs Massachusetts Prediction

This series has been all Dayton of late, with the Flyers winning the last 8 straight with Massachusetts’ (+360 Moneyline) last win coming all on February 3, 2018. The Minutemen are 6-4-0 ATS over that span, but those were better squads than this one it is just 4-4 at Home and has a -1.5 ppg Point Differential. In the 8 Wins, Dayton (-470 Moneyline) has prevailed by 5, 24, 28, 8, 21, 3, 18, and 4 points. This Dayton team has already beaten two-time defending national champs Connecticut (in the 7th place game of the Maui Invitational last month), and coming in on a 3-game slide seems like bad timing for the hosts. This Dayton vs Massachusetts NCAAB pick will back the Flyers to make it 9 straight and in a prediction to win by 11 or more here in the commonwealth on Wednesday night. My Prediction is…

Kevin’s Prediction: Dayton -9.5

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