Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction 1/5/25

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction 01/05/25 NFL Pick

by

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Washington Commanders Line: -6.0
Dallas Cowboys Line: 6.0
Total: 44.0
TV: FOX

 

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction. On Sunday 01/05 the Washington Commanders will take on the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.  This game features a match-up of two NFC East teams.  The NFC East is the #3 ranked conference in the NFL with a 53.2% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 11-5 Commanders are ranked #2 in the NFC East and the 7-9 Cowboys are ranked #3.

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Commanders defeated the Falcons 30 to 24 in which they allowed the Falcons to gain a total of 337 yards of offense. The Commanders picked up the win by 6 while outgaining the Falcons by 75 yards.  The Commanders have clinched a playoff spot but a win or loss could impact seeding as they currently have the same record as the Packers.

Last week the Cowboys lost against the Eagles 7 to 41 while allowing the Eagles to gain 376 yards of total offense. The Cowboys were outscored by 34 while being outgained by the Eagles by 108 yards and the Cowboys had 4 more turnovers than the Eagles.  The Cowboys are not in the playoff picture and are playing for bonuses and to try to help HC Mike McCarthy keep his job.

What is the Commanders plan for this week against the Cowboys?

Skill Position Impact 

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is ranked #14 for QBs this week and he has completed 325 passes on 468 attempts and has averaged 220.6 yards per game with a completion percentage of 69.4% with 25 TDs and 9 INTs. His QBR is 21.3% above the league average and he has 4 fourth quarter comebacks this season.

The Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. is the #25 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 60.7 yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush attempt while scoring 8 TDs and having 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 49.5% which is 2.9% less than the league average.

The Commanders tight end 1 Zach Ertz is the #45 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.8 receptions per game while averaging 10 yards per reception to go along with 6 TDs and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 70.9% which is 2.5% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 61.6% is 6.7% more than the league average.

Wide receiver 1 for the Commanders is Terry McLaurin who is ranked #26 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 4.6 receptions per game with a 14 yards per catch average to go along with 12 TDs and 1 fumble on the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 70.5% which is 12.9% above league average and a receiving success rate of 59% which is 13.8% more than the league average for wide receivers.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Commanders

The Commanders offense has scored 462 points this season which is 26.4% more than the NFL average and have 15 turnovers which is an average of 0.9 turnovers per game. The Commanders offensive per drive statistics show that 50.6% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 8.4% of drives end with a turnover. The Commanders average 10.4 offensive drives per game and they average 6.5 plays.

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Commanders have scored 42 red zone TDs on 68 red zone opportunities which is 40% higher and 30.5% higher than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Commanders

The defense for Commanders has allowed 372 points in 2024 which is 1.8% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 17 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Commanders is allowing 136.7 rush yards per game and 17 rushing TDs. The Commanders pass defense is allowing 187.1 passing yards per game, 25 TDs, and 7 INTs.

A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Commanders defense blitzes at 31.3% with a QB hurry rate of 7.1%, a QB knockdown rate of 8.9% and a QB pressure rate of 22.5%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Commanders 

  • Commanders S Tyler Owens (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against Dallas, Todd Archer of ESPN.com reports.
  • Commanders LB Jordan Magee (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Cowboys, Todd Archer of ESPN.com reports.
  • Commanders WR K.J. Osborn (illness) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Cowboys, Todd Archer of ESPN.com reports.
  • Commanders RB Austin Ekeler is still on Injured Reserve and would have to be activated by Saturday afternoon to play in this week’s game.  The latest update is Ekeler (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game at Dallas, Todd Archer of ESPN.com reports.
  • Tyler Ott is listed as Questionable for this week’s game.
  • Cornelius Lucas – Doubtful.
  • Tyler Biadasz – Doubtful.
  • Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Cowboys, Ben Standig of The Athletic reports.

There are 13 players on the Commanders injury report for this week which is 21.1% less than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries and is 36.4% less than the Cowboys.

“Jayden Daniels” Player Props:

  • J. Daniels (QB) has gone over 1.5 TDs in his last 5 games.
  • J. Daniels (QB) has gone over 212.5 passing yards in his last 3 games.
  • J. Daniels (QB) has gone over 46.5 rushing yards in his last 3 games.
  • J. Daniels (QB) has gone over 0.5 INTs in both of his last 2 games.

Fantasy Forecast:

  • J. Daniels (QB) is the #2 ranked QB for fantasy this week against the Cowboys who are the #32 ranked defense in allowing fantast points to QBs.  The only risk here is if the Cowboys can’t stay in the game then the Commanders will pull Daniels to make sure he stays healthy for the playoffs.
  • B.  Robinson Jr. (RB) is the #16 ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Cowboys defense that is the ranked #23 against allowing fantasy points to RBs. 

We know the Cowboys don’t have a lot to play for, so who are their key players in this week’s game against the Commanders?

Skill Position Impact 

The Cowboys are starting Cooper Rush at QB this week and he is ranked #32 on the QB statistical rankings for this week.  He has completed 187 passes on 308 attempts and has averaged 153.7 yards per game with a completion percentage of 60.7% with 12 TDs and 5 INTs. His QBR is 32.3% below the league average.  The Cowboys also expect to get Trey Lance some “significant” playing time this week. 

The Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle is the #17 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 67.1 yards per game and 4.7 yards per rush attempt to go along with 1 TD and 3 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 54.5% which is 7% more than the league average.

The Cowboys tight end 1 Jake Ferguson is the #53 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 4.4 receptions per game while averaging 8.5 yards per reception to go along with 0 TDs and 4 fumbles. The advanced receiving stats put his receiving success rate of 40.2% is 30.4% less than the league average.

For the Cowboys at wide receiver 1 is Brandin Cooks who is ranked #175 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 2.6 catches per game and 10.6 yards per reception to go with 3 TDs. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 51.1% which is 18.2% below league average combined with a receiving success rate of 48.9% which is 5.6% less than the wide receiver league averages.  

The most concerning issue for the Cowboys is the absence of the name their biggest playmaker this year in CeeDee Lamb.  

Overall Offense Analysis for the Cowboys

The offense for the Cowboys has scored 331 points so far this year which is 9.5% less than the NFL average and they have 28 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.8 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Cowboys show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 35.8% of their drives whereas 15.1% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Cowboys offensive per drive averages are 11.2 drives per game with an average of 6 plays, 28.8 yards.

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical and the Cowboys have scored 22 red zone TDs on 44 attempts which is 26.7% lower and 15.5% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Cowboys

The Cowboys defense has allowed 445 points so far this year which is 21.7% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 21 turnovers for an average of 1.3 turnovers per game which is 8.3% more than the rest of the league. The Cowboys rush defense is giving up 138.6 rush yards per game to go along with 24 rushing TDs. The pass defense for the Cowboys is allowing 222 pass yards per game, 26 passing TDs, and 13. 

The Cowboys advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 29.6%, QB hurry rate of 11.5%, QB knockdown rate of 11% and QB pressure rate of 29.2%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Cowboys

  • Cowboys CB Kemon (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against Washington, Todd Archer of ESPN.com reports.
  • Cowboys S Donovan Wilson (knee) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Commanders, Todd Archer of ESPN.com reports.
  • Mazi Smith is listed as Questionable for this week’s game
  • Nick Vigil is listed as Questionable for this week’s game
  • Chuma Edoga is listed as Questionable for this week’s game.

The Cowboys have 19 players on their injury report which is 15.4% more than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries for this week and is 36.4% more than the Commanders.

Player Prop:

  • Really!?!  Remember when the Cowboys were “America’s Team”?  At this point, the question is who is playing that done enough to warrant Vegas putting up any Prop options!!

Fantasy Highlight:

  • See player prop note above…and hopefully if you are still playing fantasy you don’t have many Cowboy players!

Mindy’s Pick: Commanders -6 @ -110

The Commanders are 10-5-1 ATS this season overall and cover at 66.7% with a MOV of 5.6 points.  The Cowboys are 6-10-0 ATS overall on the season and cover at only 37.5% with a MOV of -7.1 points.  Overall team efficiency stats have the Commanders ranked #9 while the Cowboys come in ranked #24 in this week’s ranking list.  The pick for this match-up is the Commanders on the Spread at -6 with a variance of 2.53 points. 

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out this Bears vs Packers Prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2025/01/04/chicago-bears-vs-green-bay-packers-prediction-01-05-25-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 38-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!