Providence vs Connecticut Prediction

Providence vs Connecticut Prediction

Providence (7-7, 1-2 in Big East) collides with No. 11 Connecticut (11-3, 3-0 in Big East) on Sunday afternoon in a Big East Conference date from Gampel Pavilion in Storrs. In their last 5 games, the Friars are a disappointing 1-4, losing to Rhode Island by 6 (69-63), beating DePaul by 7 in OT in their Big East opener (70-63), and then losing to St. Bonaventure by 4 (74-70), Saint John’s by 2 (72-70) and vs Marquette by 28 (78-50). In their last 5 games, the Huskies have gone a perfect 5-0, beating Texas by 11 (76-65), Gonzaga by 6 (77-71), Xavier by 5 in OT (94-89), Butler by 4 (78-74), and DePaul by 13 in their last game (81-68). Online sportsbook DraftKings currently has two-time defending national champions Connecticut at 20/1 to three-peat and win the 2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament with Providence huge longshots at 400/1. Alright, let us get to my Prediction. 

Providence Looking to Shake Off Milktoast Start

Providence (6-8-0 ATS, 4-9-0 O/U) has been a strong Under team so far and the Friars (+600 Moneyline) are led by F Bryce Hopkins (17.9 ppg, 7.7 RPG, 3RPGapg), G Jayden Pierre (12.6 ppg, 2.9 RPG, 2RPGapg), G Bensley Joseph (11.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg), GRPGsley Cardet Jr. (9.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg), aRPGG Corey Floyd Jr. (7.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg). WRPG has two 3-game Losing Streaks already and losses to some pretty average teams, Head Coach Kim English has his work cut out for him in Little Rhoddy. Providence averages 39.0 ppg (Tied-#331) while giving up 66.1 ppg and averages 40.0 rpg (Tied-#40) and 12.3 apg (#342). The Friars went 10-10 in the Big East last season (21-14 overall) and 4-7 on the Road.

Providence Betting Trends

• Providence is 3-7 SU over its last 10 games overall 
• The Friars have played 3 Unders, 1 Over, and 1 Push in their last 5 games
• Providence 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
• The Friars were 19-15-1 ATS in the 2023-24 NCAAB season (55.9%)
• Providence is 0-4 SU its last 4 vs Connecticut

Connecticut Heads in Here on 7-Game Win Streak

No. 11 Connecticut (8-6-0 ATS, 8-5-1 O/U) lost 3 straight games in the Maui Invitational—including the 7th place game to Dayton—but Head Coach Danny Hurley and the Huskies (-900 Moneyline) put that in the rearview mirror and have won 7 straight heading in here, including victories against Baylor, Texas, Gonzaga, Xavier, and Butler. Not bad. UConn is led by talented F Alex Karaban (16.6 ppg, 5.3 RPG, 2.RPGpg), F Liam McNeeley (13.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg), GRPGlo Ball (13.2 ppg), C Tarris Reed Jr. (10.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg), G RPGaan Diarra (8.2, 2.9 rpg, 6.4RPGg), C Samson Johnson (7.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg), F RPGlin Stewart (5.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F RPGden Ross (4.2 ppg, 2.6 rpg), anRPGnd G Aidan Mahaney (4.6 ppg), a Transfer from Saint Mary’s. The Huskies have been one of the best ATS bets in College Basketball over the last 3 seasons (68.5%) and went 18-2 in the Big East (37-3 overall) and a spotless 17-0 at Home last season.

Connecticut Betting Trends

• The Over is 8-1-1 in the HuskieHuskies’10 games
• The Huskies are 63-29-1 ATS over their last 93 games (68.5%)
• UConn is 37-4 SU in its last 41 games overall (90.2%)
• The Huskies are 12-0 SU/ATS in their last 12 games in March Madness
• Connecticut has played just 3 Road games this season (TEXAS, BUT, DEP)
• The Huskies are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall

Providence vs Connecticut Prediction

In the last 10 series meetings, Connecticut is 7-3 SU but just 4-5-1 ATS over that span. The Huskies have won 4 straight SU vs Providence (2-1-1 ATS), but lost ATS in the last Home meeting, winning by just 9 last year (74-65) while laying 13 Points in a game that went Over the closing Total of 136 by just 3. In their last game vs DePaul, the Huskies were 11.5-Point Road Favorites and won by 13 in a game they led by 21 at Halftime (43-22) and where neither side scored in the last minute of the game. Providence lost by 28 on New Year’s Eve vs Marquette in Milwaukee as 6.5-Point Road Underdogs, in a game the Friars trailed by 27 at Halftime (47-20), so looking at this Point Spread of 14.5, it just doesn’t seem high enough for a UConn team on a roll since Hawai’i, who doesn’t lose in Storrs, and facing a team who lost by 16 to Indiana (89-73). So this Providence vs Connecticut NCAAB pick will look for a 20-point-plus blowout at Home where backing Connecticut in the First Half ATS might also be a good idea. 

Kevin’s Prediction: Connecticut -14.5