New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction 1/5/25 NFL

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction 01/05/25 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
New Orleans Saints Line: 13.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Line: -13.0
Total: 43.5
TV: FOX

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction. On Sunday 01/05 the New Orleans Saints will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 70.1 °F with 6.9 mph wind and 0% chance of rain. This game features a match-up of two NFC South teams.  

The NFC South is the #7 ranked conference in the NFL with a 40.7% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 5-11 Saints are ranked #3 in the NFC South and the 9-7 Buccaneers are ranked #1. 

 

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Saints lost against the Raiders 10 to 25 in which they allowed the Raiders to gain a total of 388 yards of offense. The Saints were outscored by 15 while being out gained by the Raiders by 119 yards even while having 2 more turnovers. The Saints are not in the playoff picture but are looking to gather more info in evaluating their roster.

Last week the Buccaneers came out with the victory against the Panthers 48 to 14 while allowing the Panthers to gain 204 yards of total offense. The Buccaneers won by 34 out gaining the Panthers by 347 yards and having 0 turnovers against the Panthers. 

Last week the Giants defeated the Colts 45 to 33 in which they allowed the Colts to gain a total of 446 yards of offense. The Giants picked up the win by 12 while being out gained by the Colts by 57 yards with 3 fewer turnovers.  The Buccaneers need to win to make sure they get into the playoffs.

Who are the Saints starting this week against the Buccaneers?

Skill Position Impact 

The Saints will go with Spencer Rattler who has a record of 0-5 as starting quarterback this season and he is ranked #40 for QB’s this week.  Rattler has completed 104 passes on 186 attempts and has averaged 179.5 yards per game with a completion percentage of 55.9% with 3 TDs and 5 INTs. His QBR is 38.2% below the league average.

The Saints running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the #199 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 20 yards per game and 4 yards per rush attempt.  He was recently let go by the Chiefs and the Saints who have had bad luck with injuries picked him up.

The Saints tight end 1 Foster Moreau is the #157 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 1.8 receptions per game while averaging 13.6 yards per reception to go along with 5 TDs. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 71.8% which is 1.3% below league average for tight ends.

Wide receiver 1 for the Saints is Marquez Valdes-Scantling who is ranked #223 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 1.2 receptions per game with a 23.6 yards per catch average to go along with 4 TDs. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 44.4% which is 28.9% below league average and a receiving success rate of 38.9% which is 24.9% less than the league average for wide receivers.

The Saints have Kevin Austin Jr. listed as wide receiver 2 for this game this week and this will be his first significant playing time this season.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Saints

The Saints offense has scored 319 points this season which is 12.7% less than the NFL average and have 19 turnovers which is an average of 1.2 turnovers per game. The Saints offensive per drive statistics show that 33.7% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 9.9% of drives end with a turnover. The Saints average 10.8 offensive drives per game and they average 5.8 plays, 29.9 yards, starting field position on their Own 30.9 yard line, and result in 1.83 points per drive. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Saints have scored 24 red zone TDs on 41 red zone opportunities which is 20% lower and 21.3% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Saints

The defense for Saints has allowed 371 points in 2024 which is 1.5% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 16 turnovers which is an average of 1 turnover per game which is 16.7% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Saints is allowing 139.1 rush yards per game and 19 rushing TDs which is 16.3% higher and 25.8% higher than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Saints pass defense is allowing 239.9 passing yards per game, 17 TDs, and 13 INTs. 

A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Saints defense blitzes at 19.9% with a QB hurry rate of 9.3%, a QB knockdown rate of 7.7% and a QB pressure rate of 22.1%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Saints 

  • Saints DE Payton Turner (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bucs, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers’ official site reports.
  • Saints LB Willie Gay (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bucs, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers’ official site reports.
  • Saints LB Pete Werner (concussion) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bucs, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers’ official site reports.
  • Saints TE Juwan Johnson (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game at Tampa Bay, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers’ official site reports.
  • Saints WR Chris Olave is on Injured Reserve and the latest update is Olave (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game at Tampa Bay, per Jeff Nowak of WWL Louisiana.

There are 21 players on the Saints injury report for this week which is 27.5% more than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries and is 36.4% less than the Buccaneers.

Player Prop:

  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling needs 1 Touchdown for $250K Bonus

Fantasy Forecast:

  • Spencer Rattler (QB) is the #27 ranked QB for fantasy this week and is facing the Buccaneers defense who are the #30 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) is the #42 ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Buccaneers defense who are the #9 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to running backs.

Who are the Buccaneers playing this week against the Saints?

Skill Position Impact 

Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield is ranked #3 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 386 passes on 538 attempts and has averaged 267.4 yards per game with a completion percentage of 71.7% with 39 TDs and 15 INTs. His QBR is 0.5% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comeback and 1 game winning drive this season.

The Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving is the #23 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 64.6 yards per game and 5.5 yards per rush attempt to go along with 7 TDs and 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 55.3% which is 8.5% more than the league average.

The Buccaneers tight end 1 Payne Durham is the #277 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 0.6 receptions per game while averaging 11 yards per reception to go along with 1 TD and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 75% which is 3.1% above league average for tight ends.

For the Buccaneers at wide receiver 1 is Mike Evans who is ranked #36 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 5 catches per game and 14.1 yards per reception to go with 11 TDs. The advanced receiving stats show he has a receiving success rate of 63.5% which is 22.5% more than the wide receiver league averages.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Buccaneers

The offense for the Buccaneers has scored 475 points so far this year which is 29.9% more than the NFL average and they have 22 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.4 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Buccaneers show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 48% of their drives whereas 12.9% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Buccaneers offensive per drive averages are 10.7 drives per game with an average of 6.2 play. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Buccaneers have scored 44 red zone TDs on 66 attempts which is 46.7% higher and 26.7% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Buccaneers

The Buccaneers defense has allowed 366 points so far this year which is 0.1% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 18 turnovers for an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the rest of the league. The Buccaneers rush defense is giving up 99.9 rush yards per game to go along with 13 rushing TDs. The pass defense for the Buccaneers is allowing 244.9 pass yards per game, 26 passing TDs, and 7 INTs. 

The Buccaneers advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 33.5%, QB hurry rate of 9%, QB knockdown rate of 10.7% and QB pressure rate of 25%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Buccaneers

  • Buccaneers WR Sterling Shepard (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Saints.
  • Buccaneers TE Cade Otton (knee) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Saints.
  • Antoine Winfield Jr. – Out.
  • Buccaneers CB Jamel Dean (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Saints, Jenna Laine of ESPN.com reports.
  • William Gholston is listed as Questionable for this week’s game
  • Christian Izien – Injured Reserve.
  • Markees Watts – Injured Reserve.
  • Troy Hill – Injured Reserve.
  • Chris Godwin – Injured Reserve.
  • SirVocea Dennis – Injured Reserve.
  • Cody Thompson – Out.
  • Bryce Hall – Injured Reserve.
  • Chase Edmonds – Injured Reserve.
  • Silas Dzansi – Injured Reserve.
  • Sua Opeta – Injured Reserve.

The Buccaneers have 15 players on their injury report which is 8.9% less than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries for this week and is 36.4% more than the Saints.

Player Props:

  • Mike Evans needs 5 catches and 85 yards for $3 Million
  • Baker Mayfield needs to finish in top 10 of yards per attempt for 500K.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • Baker Mayfield (QB) is the #6 ranked QB for fantasy this week and is facing the Saints defense who are the #9 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • Bucky Irving (RB) is the #5 ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Saints defense who are the #10 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to running backs.

Mindy’s Pick: Over 43.5 @ -110

Overall team efficiency stats have the Saints ranked #22 while the Buccaneers come in ranked #10 in this week’s ranking list.  The Over in the Buccaneers games is 11-5 and has come in 68.8% of the time with a +/- of 6.9 points.  The best bet for this match-up is on the total and is the Over 43.5 points.  My score projections for the total of this game is 44.68 so this pick has a variance of 1.18 points.  

 

If you enjoyed this article you will love this Chiefs vs Broncos prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2025/01/04/kansas-city-chiefs-vs-denver-broncos-prediction-01-05-25-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 38-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!