Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction 1/5/25

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction 01/05/25 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

Game Time: 4:25 PM EST
Los Angeles Chargers Line: -4.5
Las Vegas Raiders Line: 4.5
Total: 41.5
TV: CBS

 

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction. On Sunday 01/05 the Los Angeles Chargers will take on the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.  This game features a match-up of two AFC West teams.  

The AFC West is the #2 ranked conference in the NFL with a 59.4% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 10-6 Chargers are ranked #2 in the AFC West and the 4-12 Raiders are ranked #4. 

 

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Chargers defeated the Patriots 40 to 7 in which they allowed the Patriots to gain a total of 181 yards of offense. The Chargers picked up the win by 33 while out gaining the Patriots by 247 yards with 1 fewer turnover. The Broncos need to win to make sure they get into the playoffs.

Last week the Raiders came out with the victory against the Saints 25 to 10 while allowing the Saints to gain 269 yards of total offense. The Raiders won by 15 out gaining the Saints by 119 yards with 2 fewer turnovers against the Saints.

Who are the Chargers starting this week against the Raiders?

Skill Position Impact 

The Chargers will go with Justin Herbert who has a record of 10-6 as starting quarterback this season.  

Justin Herbert is ranked #15 for QB’s this week and he has completed 304 passes on 468 attempts and has averaged 220.3 yards per game with a completion percentage of 65% with 21 TDs and 3 INTs. His QBR is 3.5% above the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comebacks and 2 game winning drives this season.

The Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins is the #27 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 70.2 yards per game and 4.8 yards per rush attempt while scoring 9 TDs and having 0 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 41.2% which is 19.1% less than the league average.

The Chargers tight end 1 Will Dissly is the #85 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.2 receptions per game while averaging 9.8 yards per reception to go along with 1 TDs and 0 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 77.6% which is 6.7% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 53.4% is 7.5% less than the league average.

Wide receiver 1 for the Chargers is Ladd McConkey who is ranked #22 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 5.1 receptions per game with a 13.7 yards per catch average to go along with 7 TDs and 2 fumbles on the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 74% which is 18.5% above league average and a receiving success rate of 58.7% which is 13.3% more than the league average for wide receivers.

The Chargers have Quentin Johnston listed as wide receiver 2 for this game this week.  He is ranked as the #100 WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3 receptions per game with a 12.5 yards per catch average with 8 TDs and 0 fumbles for the year. Advanced receiving stats show him as having a catch success rate of 54.5% which is 4.4% below league average along with a receiving success rate of 44.2% which is 5.5% less than the league average for WR2’s.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Chargers

The Chargers offense has scored 368 points this season which is 0.7% more than the NFL average and have 9 turnovers which is an average of 0.6 turnovers per game.  The Chargers have already clinched but with Harbaugh it’s still gonna be business as usual.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Chargers

The defense for Chargers has only allowed 281 points in 2024 which is 23.1% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 20 turnovers which is an average of 1.3 turnovers per game which is 8.3% more than the league average.  The Chargers pass defense is allowing 205.8 passing yards per game, 22 TDs, and 14 INTs which compared to league averages are 5.5% above, 7.2% above, 20.7% above league averages respectively for passing defense.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Chargers

  • Chargers S Alohi Gilman is on Injured Reserve and will not play in this week’s game as of 5 days ago.  The latest update is Gilman (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Raiders, Eric Smith of the Chargers’ official site reports.
  • Chargers WR Joshua Palmer is listed as Out for this week’s game as of 5 days ago.  The latest update is Palmer (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday’s regular season finale against the Raiders.
  • Chargers LB Denzel Perryman is listed as doubtful for this weeks game as of 5 days ago.  The latest update is Perryman (groin) is doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Raiders.
  • Chargers RB Gus Edwards is listed as Out for this week’s game as of 5 days ago.  The latest update is Edwards (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday’s regular season finale against the Raiders.
  • Elijah Molden – Injured Reserve.

There are 15 players on the Chargers injury report for this week which is 8.9% less than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries and is 6.1% more than the Raiders.

Player Props:

  • JK Dobbins needs 58 rush yards for $150K Bonus

Fantasy Forecast:

  • Justin Herbert (QB) is the #10 ranked QB for fantasy this week and is facing the Raiders defense who are the #21 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • J.K. Dobbins (RB) is the # ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Raiders defense who are the #16 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to running backs.

Who are the Raiders playing this week against the Chargers?

Skill Position Impact 

The Raiders will go with Aidan O’Connell who has a record of 2-4 as starting quarterback this season.  

Aidan O’Connell is ranked #37 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 130 passes on 209 attempts and has averaged 174.8 yards per game with a completion percentage of 62.2% with 6 TDs and 3 INTs. His QBR is 15.3% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comeback.

The Raiders running back Alexander Mattison is the #38 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 30.8 yards per game and 3.2 yards per rush attempt to go along with 4 TDs and 1 fumble. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 34.9% which is 31.5% less than the league average.

The Raiders tight end 1 Brock Bowers is the #3 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 6.8 receptions per game while averaging 10.6 yards per reception to go along with 4 TDs and 0 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 75% which is 3.1% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 62.5% is 8.3% more than the league average.

For the Raiders at wide receiver 1 is Jakobi Meyers who is ranked #21 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 5.6 catches per game and 11.6 yards per reception to go with 3 TDs and 0 fumbles on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 65.5% which is 4.9% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 54.6% which is 5.4% more than the wide receiver league averages.

At wide receiver 2 the Raiders have Tre Tucker.  He is ranked at #92 on the WR\TE’s ranks this week and averages 2.8 receptions per game and 11.7 yards per reception with season totals of 3 TDs and 0 fumbles. He has a catch success rate of 57.1% which is 0.2% above league average and a receiving success rate of 42.9% which is 8.3% less than the WR league averages in the advanced receiving metrics.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Raiders

The offense for the Raiders has scored 289 points so far this year, which is 21% less than the NFL average and they have 28 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.8 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Raiders show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 32.6% of their drives whereas 15.5% of drives end with a fumble or interception. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Raiders have scored 21 red zone TDs on 43 attempts which is 30% lower and 17.5% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Raiders

The Raiders defense has allowed 400 points so far this year which is 9.4% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 13 turnovers for an average of 0.8 turnovers per game which is 33.3% less than the rest of the league. The Raiders rush defense is giving up 115.6 rush yards per game to go along with 13 rushing TDs which is respectively 3.4% lower and 13.9% lower than rush defense averages across the league.

The Raiders advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 26.7%, QB hurry rate of 9%, QB knockdown rate of 7.4% and QB pressure rate of 21.9%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Raiders

  • Raiders G Jordan Meredith is listed as questionable for this week’s game as of 5 days ago.  The latest update is Meredith (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Chargers.
  • Raiders CB Nate Hobbs is listed as questionable for this week’s game as of 5 days ago.  The latest update is Hobbs (illness) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Chargers.
  • Raiders RB Ameer Abdullah is listed as Out for this week’s game as of 5 days ago.  The latest update is Abdullah (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday’s season finale against the Chargers.
  • The Raiders have 14 players on their injury report which is 15% less than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries for this week and is 6.1% less than the Chargers.

Player Props:

  • There is not going to be much in this game for props.  Not much to play for today.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • Alexander Mattison (RB) is the # ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Chargers defense who are the #14 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to running backs.

Mindy’s Pick: Chargers 4.5 @ -110

The Chargers are 11-5-0 ATS as away favorites this season overall and cover at 68.8% with a MOV of 5.4 points. The pick for this match-up is the Chargers on the Spread at -4.5 with a variance of 3.29 points.  Should be an easy one!

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out this prediction between the Seahawks and Rams here:  https://www.tonyspicks.com/2025/01/04/seattle-seahawks-vs-los-angeles-rams-prediction-01-05-25-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 38-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!