Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos prediction 1-5-25

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Prediction 01/05/25 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Prediction

Game Time: 4:25 PM EST
Kansas City Chiefs Line: 10.5
Denver Broncos Line: -10.5
Total: 40.0
TV: CBS

 

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Prediction. On Sunday 01/05 the Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 35 °F with 5.8 mph wind and 4% chance of rain. This game features a match-up of two AFC West teams.  

The AFC West is the #2 ranked conference in the NFL with a 59.4% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 15-1 Chiefs are ranked #1 in the AFC West and the 9-7 Broncos are ranked #3. 

 

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Chiefs defeated the Steelers 29 to 10 in which they allowed the Steelers to gain a total of 364 yards of offense. The Chiefs picked up the win by 19 while outgaining the Steelers by 25 yards with 2 fewer turnovers.  The Chiefs have clinched the #1 seed in the AFC and are going to rest most of the starters this week.

Last week the Broncos lost against the Bengals 24 to 30 while allowing the Bengals to gain 499 yards of total offense. The Broncos were outscored by 6 while being outgained by the Bengals by 170 yards.  The Broncos need to win to make sure they get into the playoffs.

Who are the Chiefs starting this week against the Broncos?

Skill Position Impact 

Carson Wentz is ranked #73 for QB’s this week and he has completed 2 passes on 2 attempts and has averaged 10 yards per game with a completion percentage of 100% with 0 TDs and 0 INTs. His QBR is 41% below the league average and he has 0 fourth quarter comebacks and 0 game winning drives this season.

The Chiefs running back Carson Steele is the #86 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 9.9 yards per game and 3.3 yards per rush attempt while scoring 0 TDs and having 3 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 60.4% which is 18.5% more than the league average.

The Chiefs tight end 1 Noah Gray is the #107 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 2.4 receptions per game while averaging 11.2 yards per reception to go along with 5 TDs and 0 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 81.3% which is 11.8% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 68.8% is 19.2% more than the league average.

Wide receiver 1 for the Chiefs is DeAndre Hopkins who is ranked #57 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3.5 receptions per game with a 10.9 yards per catch average to go along with 5 TDs and 1 fumble on the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 70% which is 12.1% above league average and a receiving success rate of 60% which is 15.8% more than the league average for wide receivers.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Chiefs

The Chiefs offense has scored 385 points this season which is 5.3% more than the NFL average and have 14 turnovers which is an average of 0.9 turnovers per game. The Chiefs offensive per drive statistics show that 45.3% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 8.7% of drives end with a turnover. The Chiefs average 10.1 offensive drives per game and they average 6.8 plays, 34 yards, starting field position on their Own 30.2 yard line, and result in 2.38 points per drive. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Chiefs have scored 35 red zone TDs on 65 red zone opportunities which is 16.7% higher and 24.8% higher than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Chiefs

The defense for Chiefs has allowed 288 points in 2024 which is 21.2% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 20 turnovers which is an average of 1.3 turnovers per game which is 8.3% more than the league average. The rush defense for the Chiefs is allowing 98.3 rush yards per game and 12 rushing TDs which is 17.8% lower and 20.5% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Chiefs pass defense is allowing 212.4 passing yards per game, 20 TDs, and 13 INTs. 

A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Chiefs defense blitzes at 32.9% with a QB hurry rate of 9.3%, a QB knockdown rate of 13.5% and a QB pressure rate of 27.2%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Chiefs 

  • Chiefs OT Jawaan Taylor (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Broncos.
  • Chiefs LB Drue Tranquill (coach’s decision) is listed as doubtful ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Broncos.
  • Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie(knee) is listed as doubtful ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Broncos.
  • Chiefs S Justin Reid (coach’s decision) is listed as doubtful ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Broncos.
  • Chiefs DE George Karlaftis (coach’s decision) is listed as doubtful ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Broncos.
  • Chiefs LB Nick Bolton (coach’s decision) is listed as doubtful ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Broncos.
  • Chiefs DT Chris Jones (calf) is listed as doubtful ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Broncos.
  • Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman is on Injured Reserve and the latest update is Hardman (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Broncos.
  • Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco (ribs) has been ruled out for Sunday’s regular-season finale against the Broncos.
  • Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (coach’s decision) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s contest in Denver.
  • Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt (coach’s decision) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Broncos.
  • Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is (ankle) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s contest at Denver.
  • Chiefs CB Jaylen Watson is on Injured Reserve and the latest update is The Chiefs designated Watson (leg) for return from injured reserve Friday, Jordan Schultz of Fox Sports reports.

There are 21 players on the Chiefs injury report for this week which is 27.5% more than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries and is 97.1% more than the Broncos.

Player Prop:

  • Not sure there will be much for props in this game with the Chiefs not having much to play for.

Fantasy Forecast:

  • Carson Wentz (QB) is the #28 ranked QB for fantasy this week and is facing the Broncos defense who are the #15 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • Carson Steele (RB) is the #36 ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Broncos defense who are the #15 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to running backs.

Who are the Broncos playing this week against the Chiefs?

Skill Position Impact 

Bo Nix is ranked #17 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 350 passes on 538 attempts and has averaged 215.9 yards per game with a completion percentage of 65.1% with 25 TDs and 12 INTs. His QBR is 9.4% below the league average and he has 3 fourth quarter comebacks and 3 game winning drives this season.

The Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin is the #49 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 30.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per rush attempt to go along with 1 TDs and 1 fumble. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 50.5% which is 0.9% less than the league average.

The Broncos tight end 1 Adam Trautman is the #236 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 0.8 receptions per game while averaging 14.5 yards per reception to go along with 2 TDs. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 59.1% which is 18.7% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 40.9% is 29.2% less than the league average.

For the Broncos at wide receiver 1 is Courtland Sutton who is ranked #25 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 4.8 catches per game and 12.9 yards per reception to go with 7 TDs and 1 fumble on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 59.4% which is 4.9% below league average combined with a receiving success rate of 53.1% which is 2.5% more than the wide receiver league averages.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Broncos

The offense for the Broncos has scored 387 points so far this year which is 5.9% more than the NFL average and they have 19 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.2 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Broncos show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 36.8% of their drives whereas 10.4% of drives end with a fumble or interception. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Broncos have scored 31 red zone TDs on 51 attempts which is 3.3% higher and 2.1% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Broncos

The Broncos defense has allowed 311 points so far this year which is 14.9% less than the league average for points allowed while creating 25 turnovers for an average of 1.6 turnovers per game which is 33.3% more than the rest of the league. The Broncos rush defense is giving up 100.8 rush yards per game to go along with 10 rushing TDs. The pass defense for the Broncos is allowing 230.1 pass yards per game, 22 passing TDs, and 15 INTs. 

The Broncos advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 30.2%, QB hurry rate of 8.7%, QB knockdown rate of 11.5% and QB pressure rate of 27.2%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Broncos

  • Broncos OT Frank Crum (illness) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Chiefs, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.
  • Broncos RB Tyler Badie is on Injured Reserve and the latest update is Badie (back) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Chiefs, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.

The Broncos have 5 players on their injury report which is 69.6% less than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries for this week and is 97.1% less than the Chiefs.

Player Prop:

  • Cortland Sutton needs 82 yards for $500K Bonus

Fantasy Highlight:

  • Bo Nix (QB) is the #8 ranked QB for fantasy this week and is facing the Chiefs defense who are the #13 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • Jaleel McLaughlin (RB) is the #31 ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Chiefs defense who are the #14 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to running backs.

Mindy’s Pick: Chiefs 10.5 @ -110

Overall team efficiency stats have the Chiefs ranked #6 while the Broncos come in ranked #12 in this week’s ranking list.  The pick for this match-up is the Chiefs on the Spread at +10.5 with a variance of 7.9 points.  The Chiefs are resting starters, but they are still good enough to keep it close!

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out this Chargers vs Raiders Prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/?p=248824&preview=true

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 38-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!