Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction 1/5/25 NFL

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction 01/05/25 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Jacksonville Jaguars Line: 5.0
Indianapolis Colts Line: -5.0
Total: 44.0
TV: FOX

 

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction. On Sunday 01/05 the Jacksonville Jaguars will take on the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.  This game features a match-up of two AFC South teams.  The AFC South is the #8 ranked conference in the NFL with a 36% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 4-12 Jaguars are ranked #3 in the AFC South and the 7-9 Colts are ranked #2. 

 

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Jaguars defeated the Titans 20 to 13 in which they allowed the Titans to gain a total of 337 yards of offense. The Jaguars picked up the win by 7 while being out gained by the Titans by 42 yards with 1 fewer turnovers.  The Titans are not in the playoff picture but are looking to gather more info in evaluating their younger talent such as Brian Thomas Jr.  

Last week the Colts lost against the Giants 33 to 45 while allowing the Giants to gain 389 yards of total offense. The Colts were outscored by 12 outgaining the Giants by 57 yards but had 3 more turnovers than the Giants. The Colts are not in the playoff picture, but they are looking to gather more info and evaluate their roster as they look to make improvements in the offseason.  

What is the Jaguars plan for this week against the Colts?

Skill Position Impact 

The Jaguars will go with Mac Jones who has a record of 2-4 as starting quarterback this season.  Jones is ranked #36 for QB’s this week and he has completed 151 passes on 230 attempts and has averaged 160.8 yards per game with a completion percentage of 65.7% with 7 TDs and 7 INTs. His QBR is 34.2% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comeback and game winning drive this season.

The Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. is the #34 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 37.6 yards per game and 3.8 yards per rush attempt while scoring 2 TDs and having 1 fumble. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 45.3% which is 11.1% less than the league average.

The Jaguars tight end 1 Brenton Strange is the #122 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 2.3 receptions per game while averaging 9.8 yards per reception to go along with 2 TDs and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 73.5% which is 1.1% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 63.3% is 9.6% more than the league average.

Wide receiver 1 for the Jaguars is Brian Thomas Jr. who is ranked #15 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 5 receptions per game with a 14.7 yards per catch average to go along with 10.  When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 65.6% which is 5.1% above league average and a receiving success rate of 56.6% which is 9.2% more than the league average for wide receivers.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Jaguars

The Jaguars offense has scored 297 points this season which is 18.8% less than the NFL average and have 23 turnovers which is an average of 1.4 turnovers per game. The Jaguars offensive per drive statistics show that 32.9% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 13.4% of drives end with a turnover. The Jaguars average 10.3 offensive drives per game and they average 5.8 plays, 29.8 yards, starting field position on their Own 27.5 yard line, and result in 1.72 points per drive. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Jaguars have scored 27 red zone TDs on 47 red zone opportunities which is 10% lower and 9.8% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Jaguars

The defense for Jaguars has allowed 409 points in 2024 which is 11.9% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 9 turnovers which is an average of 0.6 turnovers per game which is 50% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Jaguars is allowing 129.8 rush yards per game and 18 rushing TDs which is 8.5% higher and 19.2% higher than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Jaguars pass defense is allowing 257.7 passing yards per game, 28 TDs, and 6 INTs. 

A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Jaguars defense blitzes at 13.7% with a QB hurry rate of 6.8%, a QB knockdown rate of 5.9% and a QB pressure rate of 17.1%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Jaguars 

  • Jaguars LB Ventrell Miller is listed as questionable for this week’s game as of 5 days ago.  The latest update is Miller (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Colts, Demetrius Harvey of The Florida Times-Union reports.

There are 10 players on the Jaguars injury report for this week which is 39.3% less than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries and is 6.1% less than the Colts.

Player Prop:

  • Not sure there will be much for props in this game with the Jags not having much to play for.

Fantasy Forecast:

  • Mac Jones (QB) is the #19 ranked QB for fantasy this week and is facing the Colts defense who are the #24 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. (RB) is the #23 ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Colts defense who are the #21 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to running backs.

What are the Colts looking to get out of their starters against the Jaguars this week?

Skill Position Impact 

The Colts will go with Joe Flacco who has a record of 1-4 as starting quarterback this season.  

Joe Flacco is ranked #34 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 139 passes on 208 attempts and has averaged 213.9 yards per game with a completion percentage of 66.8% with 11 TDs and 7 INTs. His QBR is 6.4% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comebacks and 1 game winning drives this season.

The Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is the #6 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 96.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per rush attempt to go along with 10 TDs and 4 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 42.4% which is 16.8% less than the league average.

The Colts tight end 1 Kylen Granson is the #235 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 0.8 receptions per game while averaging 13.5 yards per reception to go along with 0 TDs and 0 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 48.1% which is 33.9% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 40.7% is 29.5% less than the league average.

For the Colts at wide receiver 1 is Michael Pittman Jr. who is ranked #42 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 4.2 catches per game and 11.7 yards per reception to go with 3 TDs and 1 fumble on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 62.4% which is 0.1% below league average combined with a receiving success rate of 51.5% which is 0.6% less than the wide receiver league averages.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Colts

The offense for the Colts has scored 351 points so far this year which is 4% less than the NFL average and they have 29 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.8 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Colts show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 35.7% of their drives whereas 15.9% of drives end with a fumble or interception. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Colts have scored 27 red zone TDs on 49 attempts which is 10% lower and 5.9% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Colts

The Colts defense has allowed 404 points so far this year which is 10.5% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 24 turnovers for an average of 1.5 turnovers per game which is 25% more than the rest of the league. The Colts rush defense is giving up 133 rush yards per game to go along with 17 rushing TDs. The pass defense for the Colts is allowing 230.8 pass yards per game, 26 passing TDs, and 15 INTs. 

The Colts advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 17.7%, QB hurry rate of 8%, QB knockdown rate of 8% and QB pressure rate of 21%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Colts

  • Colts CB JuJu Brents is on Injured Reserve and the latest update is Brents (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Jaguars after logging a full practice Friday.
  • Colts QB Anthony Richardson is listed as Out for this week’s game and the latest update is Richardson (back) remained sidelined at practice Friday, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.

The Colts have 11 players on their injury report which is 33.2% less than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries for this week and is 6.1% more than the Jaguars.

Player Prop:

  • There is not going to be much in this game for props due to the match-up between a playoff team that might rest starters and a bad Jags team who is not sure how much any of their players will play this week.

Fantasy Highlights:

  • Joe Flacco (QB) is the #14 ranked QB for fantasy this week and is facing the Jaguars defense who are the #32 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • Jonathan Taylor (RB) is the #5 ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Jaguars defense who are the #31 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to running backs.

Mindy’s Pick: Jaguars +5 @ -110

Overall team efficiency stats have the Jaguars ranked #26 while the Colts come in ranked #21 in this week’s list.  The Jaguars are 8-7-1 ATS this season overall and cover at 53.3% with a MOV of -7 points.  The pick for this match-up is the Jaguars on the Spread at +5 with a variance of 2.64 points.  

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out this Bills Patriots Prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2025/01/04/buffalo-bills-vs-new-england-patriots-prediction-01-05-25-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 38-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!