Indiana vs Penn State Prediction

Indiana vs Penn State Prediction

Penn State (12-2, 2-1 in Big Ten) faces Indiana (11-3, 2-1 in Big Ten) on Sunday morning in a Big Ten Conference showdown from The Palestra in the City of Brotherly Love and Three Seconds in the Lane. In their last 5 games, the Hoosiers are 4-1, beating Minnesota by 15 (82-67), losing at Nebraska by 17 (85-68), beating UT Chattanooga by 9 (74-65), Winthrop by 9 (77-68), and Rutgers by 10 (84-74). In their last 5 games the Nittany Lions are also 4-1, losing to Rutgers by 4 (80-76), and then winning their last 4 vs Coppin State by 48 (99-51), Drexel by 11 (75-64), Penn by 20 (86-66), and Northwestern by 4 at Home (84-80). Online sportsbook DraftKings has Indiana at 150/1 to win the 2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament with Penn State at 200/1.

IU Looks for First Win vs PSU in Pennsylvania Since 2018

Indiana (7-7-0 ATS, 6-8-0 O/U) has two 4-game Win Streaks and its 3 Losses are to Louisville, Gonzaga, and Nebraska, so this will be a good test for head Coach Mike Woodson and the Hoosiers who played the vast majority of its games in November and December at Assembly Hall in Bloomington. Indiana is led by F Malik Reneau (14.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.3 apg), F Mackenzie Mgbako (13.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg), C Oumar Ballo (12.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg), G Myles Rice (12.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.1 apg), G Trey Galloway (7.2 ppg, 3.8 apg), F Bryson Tucker (6.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg), F Luke Goode (6.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg), and G Kanaan Carlyle (4.9 ppg). Indiana was 12-5 at Home and this season the Hoosiers average 79.1 ppg (Tied-#104) and allow 70.3 ppg. The Crimson and Cream lost Trayce Jackson-Davis (Warriors) and Jalen-Hood Schifino (Lakers) to the NBA, had 4 players leave in the Transfer Portal and saw 3 others graduate. With 4 talented Pac-12 teams with good Hoops programs joining the conference, IU (+220 Moneyline) may have more trouble making the Big Dance.

Indiana Betting Trends

• Indiana is 7-3 SU over its last 10 games overall 
• The Hoosiers have played 3 Unders in their last 4 games
• Indiana is 1-3-0 ATS in its last 4 games after a 4-0-0 ATS streak
• The Hoosiers were 15-16-2 ATS in the 2023-24 NCAAB season (48.4%)
• Indiana is just 3-7-0 SU/ATS the last 10 games vs Penn State
• The Hoosiers are a perfect 9-0 this season at Home at Assembly Hall

Penn State Now Seeking its 5th Consecutive Victory

Penn State (6-8-0 ATS, 7-7-0 O/U) has been a pretty good SU but just as disappointing ATS, so this is one of those teams where you have to pick your spots when to bet on them. The Nittany Lions are led by G Ace Baldwin Jr. (15.0 ppg, 2.9 RPG, 8.5 APG), F Yanic Konan Niederhauser (13.1 ppg, 6.8 RPG), F Zach Hicks (12.6 ppg, 4.5 RPG), G Nick Kern Jr. (11.6 ppg, 4.8 RPG), G Puff Johnson (10.6 ppg, 4.6 RPG), and G Freddie Dillone V (9.9 ppg, 3.0 RPG) and Penn State (-260 Moneyline) is averaging a healthy 87.9 ppg a game (#7) while allowing just 67.9, a nice 20.0 Point Margin and with so many guys who can dish the ball, this team also averages 18.4 Assists Per Game (#13). This team won its first 6 games of the season and the 2 losses were to Clemson and Rutgers.

Penn State Betting Trends

• Penn State hasn’t lost to IU at Home since December 4, 2018
• The Nittany Lions are 17-43 lifetime vs Indiana
• Penn State is 5-1 in its last 6 games at The Palestra
• The Over is 4-0-0 in the Nittany Lion’s last 4 Home games
• Penn State was 13-19-0 ATS last season (40.6%) 
• The Nittany Lions are 3-7-0 ATS in their last 10 games
• The Over was 19-13-1 in Penn State games last season

Indiana vs Penn State Prediction

Like so many in the Big Ten, these two teams seem to win at Home and struggle on the Road in conference play. In the last 10 series meetings, the Home team has gone 7-1 with the Nittany Lions winning in Bloomington last season and 2 of the meetings at a Neutral Site in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. And even though the Nittany Lions are unbeaten at Home and having won 4 of the last 5 series meetings—this game is technically at a Neutral Site at The Palestra in Philadelphia. But the crowd and Site should still favor Penn State with the Nittany Lions 14-8 SU in its last 22 in this building (25-37 overall). This Indiana vs Penn State NCAAB pick will look for the semi-Home team to prevail in Pennsylvania. The Over is 6-4-0 over that span with 5 Overs in the last 6 meetings and 2-0-0 the last 2 in the commonwealth going Over. Note the early start (12 pm EST/11 am CST/9 am PST) as this is the first NCAAB game on the betting board on Sunday.

Kevin’s Prediction: Penn State -6

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