Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans prediction 1/5/25

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans Prediction 01/05/25 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Houston Texans Line: 1.5
Tennessee Titans Line: -1.5
Total: 37.0
TV: CBS

 

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans Prediction. On Sunday 01/05 the Houston Texans will take on the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 43.1 °F with 12.8 mph wind and 96% chance of rain. This game features a match-up of two AFC South teams.  The AFC South is the #8 ranked conference in the NFL with a 36% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 9-7 Texans are ranked #1 in the AFC South and the 3-13 Titans are ranked #4. 

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Texans lost against the Ravens 2 to 31 in which they allowed the Ravens to gain a total of 432 yards of offense. The Texans were outscored by 29 and outgained by 221 yards and had 1 more turnover than the Ravens.  The Texans have clinched a playoff spot but are looking to regain momentum for a playoff run.

Last week the Titans lost against the Jaguars 13 to 20 while allowing the Jaguars to gain 295 yards of total offense. The Titans were outscored by 7 out gaining the Jaguars by 42 yards and having 1 more turnover against the Jaguars. The Titans are not in the playoff picture but are looking to gather more info in evaluating their younger talent such as Will Levis.  

What is the Texans plan for this week against the Titans?

Skill Position Impact 

Texans QB C.J. Stroud is ranked #11 for QB’s this week and he has completed 330 passes on 526 attempts and has averaged 229.8 yards per game with a completion percentage of 62.7% with 19 TDs and 12 INTs. His QBR is 17.9% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comeback and 2 game winning drives this season.

The Texans running back Joe Mixon is the #10 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 76.4 yards per game and 4.1 yards per rush attempt while scoring 11 TDs. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 41.7% which is 18.2% less than the league average.

The Texans tight end 1 Dalton Schultz is the #71 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.1 receptions per game while averaging 10.1 yards per reception to go along with 2 TDs. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 61% which is 16.1% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 47.6% is 17.6% less than the league average.

Wide receiver 1 for the Texans is Nico Collins who is ranked #39 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 5.7 receptions per game with a 15.4 yards per catch average to go along with 6TDs.  When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 67% which is 7.3% above league average and a receiving success rate of 55.3% which is 6.7% more than the league average for wide receivers.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Texans

The Texans offense has scored 349 points this season which is 4.5% less than the NFL average and have 18 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game. The Texans offensive per drive statistics show that 37.2% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 9.3% of drives end with a turnover. The Texans average 11.4 offensive drives per game and they average 5.7 plays, 27.6 yards, starting field position on their Own 31.9 yard line, and result in 1.84 points per drive. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Texans have scored 27 red zone TDs on 53 red zone opportunities which is 10% lower and 1.7% higher than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Texans

The defense for Texans has allowed 358 points in 2024 which is 2.1% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 28 turnovers which is an average of 1.8 turnovers per game which is 50% more than the league average. The rush defense for the Texans is allowing 115.8 rush yards per game and 11 rushing TDs which is 3.2% lower and 27.2% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Texans pass defense is allowing 199.3 passing yards per game, 30 TDs, and 19 INTs. 

A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Texans defense blitzes at 24.1% with a QB hurry rate of 7.6%, a QB knockdown rate of 8.9% and a QB pressure rate of 23.1%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Texans 

  • Texans G Shaq Mason (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Titans.
  • Texans DE Denico Autry (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Titans.
  • Texans LB Christian Harris (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Titans.
  • Texans DT Folorunso Fatukasi (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Titans.
  • Texans CB Jeff Okudah (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Titans.
  • Jamal Hill is listed as Questionable for this week’s game.

There are 20 players on the Texans injury report for this week which is 21.4% more than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries and is 12.1% more than the Titans.

Player Prop:

  • Not sure there will be much for props in this game with the Texans not having much to play for.

Fantasy Forecast:

  • C.J. Stroud (QB) is the #23 ranked QB for fantasy this week and is facing the Titans defense who are the #20 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks.  But there is no guarantee how much the Packers starters will play in this game.
  • Joe Mixon (RB) is the #21 ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Titans defense who are the #23 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to running backs.  But there is no guarantee how much the Packers starters will play in this game.

What are the Titans looking to get out of their starters against the Texans?

Skill Position Impact 

The Titans are going back to QB Will Levis again as starter, but they have also said Mason Rudolph will see some snaps at QB as well.  Levis is ranked #31 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 181 passes on 284 attempts and has averaged 174.2 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.7% with 12 TDs and 12 INTs. His QBR is 49.4% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comeback and 1 game winning drive this season.

The Titans running back Tony Pollard is the #11 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 67.8 yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush attempt to go along with 5 TDs and 2 fumbles. Pollard is listed as questionable for this week’s game against the Texans and will be a game-time decision, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.

The Titans tight end 1 Chig Okonkwo is the #64 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.3 receptions per game while averaging 9.2 yards per reception to go along with 2 TDs and 2 fumbles for the season.  Okonkwo is listed as questionable for this week’s for Sunday’s season finale against the Texans after not practicing Friday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.

For the Titans at wide receiver 1 is Calvin Ridley who is ranked #46 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 3.8 catches per game and 15.4 yards per reception to go with 4 TDs and 1 fumble on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 53% which is 15.1% below league average combined with a receiving success rate of 44.3% which is 14.5% less than the wide receiver league averages.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Titans

The offense for the Titans has scored 297 points so far this year which is 18.8% less than the NFL average and they have 33 turnovers on offense for an average of 2.1 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Titans show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 30.4% of their drives whereas 17.1% of drives end with a fumble or interception. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical and the Titans have scored 24 red zone TDs on 43 attempts which is 20% lower and 17.5% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Titans

The Titans defense has allowed 437 points so far this year which is 19.5% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 17 turnovers for an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the rest of the league. The Titans rush defense is giving up 129.4 rush yards per game to go along with 20 rushing TDs which is respectively 8.2% higher and 32.5% higher than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Titans is allowing 177.9 pass yards per game, 26 passing TDs, and 11 INTs.

The Titans advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 20%, QB hurry rate of 5%, QB knockdown rate of 7% and QB pressure rate of 17.1%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Titans

  • Titans WR Colton Dowell (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.
  • Titans TE Chig Okonkwo (abdomen) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s season finale against the Texans after not practicing Friday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.
  • Titans RB Tony Pollard (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Texans and will be a game-time decision, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.
  • Titans LB Otis Reese IV (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.
  • Titans OT Jaelyn Duncan (shoulder) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.
  • Titans LB Arden Key (hand) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.
  • Titans S Amani Hooker (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.
  • Titans WR Tyler Boyd (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.
  • Titans PK Nick Folk (abdomen) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.
  • Titans RB Tyjae Spears (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday’s season finale against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.
  • Titans CB L’Jarius Sneed is on Injured Reserve and will not play in this week’s game.

The Titans have 22 players on their injury report which is 33.6% more than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries for this week and is 12.1% less than the Texans.

Player Prop:

  • Tony Pollard needs 83 rushing yards for $250K Bonus
  • Tony Pollard Needs 2 Rushing TDs for $250K Bonus

Fantasy Highlights:

  • Will Levis (QB) is the #25 ranked QB for fantasy this week and is facing the Texans defense who are the #20 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • Tony Pollard (RB) is the #28 ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Texans defense who are the #23 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to running backs.

Mindy’s Pick: Titans Moneyline @ -120

The pick for this match-up is the Titans on the Moneyline at -120.  There aren’t many stats that you can rely on in this one since both teams don’t have a lot to play for, but the Titans have more players that are desperate to show something.  The Titans will try to win when the Texans will be more interested in showering and getting back home.  

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out this prediction between the Jags and Colts here:  https://www.tonyspicks.com/2025/01/04/jacksonville-jaguars-vs-indianapolis-colts-prediction-01-05-25-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 38-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!