Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Prediction 1/5/24 NFL

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Prediction 01/05/25 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Chicago Bears Line: 10.0
Green Bay Packers Line: -10.0
Total: 41.0
TV: FOX

 

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Prediction. On Sunday 01/05 the Chicago Bears will take on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 18 °F with 6.9 mph wind and 0% chance of rain. This game features a match-up of two NFC North teams.  

The NFC North is the #1 ranked conference in the NFL with a 67.2% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 4-12 Bears are ranked #4 in the NFC North and the 11-5 Packers are ranked #3. 

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Bears lost against the Seahawks 3 to 6 in which they allowed the Seahawks to gain a total of 265 yards of offense and were outgained by the Seahawks by 86 yards.  The Bears are not in the playoff picture but are looking to keep growing their 2 first round draft picks in Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze.

Last week the Packers lost against the Vikings 25 to 27 while allowing the Vikings to gain 441 yards of total offense and were outgained by the Vikings by 170.  The Packers have clinched a playoff spot but are looking to regain momentum for a playoff run.

What is the Commanders plan for this week against the Bears?

Skill Position Impact 

Bears QB Caleb Williams is ranked #18 for QB’s this week and he has completed 330 passes on 533 attempts and has averaged 212.1 yards per game with a completion percentage of 61.9% with 19 TDs and 6 INTs. His QBR is 23.8% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comebacks and no game winning drives this season.

The Bears running back D’Andre Swift is the #13 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 55.9 yards per game and 3.8 yards per rush attempt while scoring 5 TDs and having 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 43.8% which is 14% less than the league average.

The Bears tight end 1 Cole Kmet is the #87 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 2.8 receptions per game while averaging 10.5 yards per reception to go along with 4 TDs. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 84.9% which is 16.7% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 73.6% is 27.5% more than the league average.

Wide receiver 1 for the Bears is DJ Moore who is ranked #12 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 5.6 receptions per game with a 9.9 yards per catch average to go along with 5 TDs. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 68.5% which is 9.7% above league average and a receiving success rate of 46.2% which is 10.9% less than the league average for wide receivers.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Bears

The Bears offense has scored 286 points this season which is 21.8% less than the NFL average and have 14 turnovers which is an average of 0.9 turnovers per game. The Bears offensive per drive statistics show that 30% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 7.1% of drives end with a turnover. The Bears average 10.6 offensive drives per game and they average 6.1 plays, 27 yards, starting field position on their Own 29.4 yard line, and result in 1.63 points per drive. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Bears have scored 22 red zone TDs on 36 red zone opportunities which is 26.7% lower and 30.9% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Bears

The defense for Bears has allowed 348 points in 2024 which is 4.8% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 22 turnovers which is an average of 1.4 turnovers per game which is 16.7% more than the league average. The rush defense for the Bears is allowing 133.4 rush yards per game and 18 rushing TDs which is 11.5% higher and 19.2% higher than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Bears pass defense is allowing 220.1 passing yards per game, 17 TDs, and 11 INTs. 

A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Bears defense blitzes at 23.2% with a QB hurry rate of 7.6%, a QB knockdown rate of 11.7% and a QB pressure rate of 24.9%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Bears 

  • Packers OT Andre Dillard (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bears, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers’ official site reports.
  • Packers DE Brenton Cox Jr. (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s regular-season finale against the Bears, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers’ official site reports.
  • Packers S Evan Williams (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bears.
  • Packers LB Quay Walker (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bears.
  • Packers S Zayne Anderson (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bears.

The Packers have 11 players on their injury report which is 33.2% less than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries for this week and is 18.2% less than the Bears.

Player Props:

  • DJ Moore (WR) has gone over 6.5 receptions in his last 7 games.
  • C. Williams (QB) has gone over 21.5 rushing yards in his last 2 games.

Fantasy Forecast:

  • Caleb Williams (QB) is the #12 ranked QB for fantasy this week and is facing the Packers defense who are the #3 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • D’Andre Swift (RB) is the #22 ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Packers defense who are the #17 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to running backs. 

What are the Packers looking to get out of their starters this week against the Bears?

Skill Position Impact 

Packers QB Jordan Love is ranked #19 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 261 passes on 413 attempts and has averaged 237.1 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.2% with 25 TDs and 11 INTs. His QBR is 16.2% above the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks and 2 game winning drives this season.

The Packers running back Josh Jacobs is the #4 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 80.3 yards per game and 4.4 yards per rush attempt to go along with 14 TDs and 4 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 51.5% which is 1.1% more than the league average.

The Packers tight end 1 Tucker Kraft is the #82 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 2.9 receptions per game while averaging 14.6 yards per reception to go along with 7 TDs and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 73% which is 0.4% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 61.9% is 7.2% more than the league average.

For the Packers at wide receiver 1 is Jayden Reed who is ranked #62 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 3.3 catches per game and 15.3 yards per reception to go with 6 TDs and 2 fumbles on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 72.6% which is 16.3% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 54.8% which is 5.7% more than the wide receiver league averages.  

Overall Offense Analysis for the Packers

The offense for the Packers has scored 438 points so far this year which is 19.8% more than the NFL average and they have 17 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.1 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Packers show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 46.2% of their drives whereas 9.5% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Packers offensive per drive averages are 10.6 drives per game with an average of 5.9 plays, 35 yards.

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical and the Packers have scored 40 red zone TDs on 66 attempts which is 33.3% higher and 26.7% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Packers

The Packers defense has allowed 314 points so far this year which is 14.1% less than the league average for points allowed while creating 29 turnovers for an average of 1.8 turnovers per game which is 50% more than the rest of the league. The Packers rush defense is giving up 100.4 rush yards per game to go along with 12 rushing TDs. The pass defense for the Packers is allowing 219.8 pass yards per game, 22 passing TDs, and 16 INTs. 

The Packers advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 17.6%, QB hurry rate of 8.3%, QB knockdown rate of 7.9% and QB pressure rate of 22.3%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Packers

  • Packers OT Andre Dillard (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bears, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers’ official site reports.
  • Packers DE Brenton Cox Jr. (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s regular-season finale against the Bears, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers’ official site reports.
  • Packers S Evan Williams (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bears.
  • Packers LB Quay Walker (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bears.
  • Packers S Zayne Anderson (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bears.
  • Packers WR Christian Watson (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bears.

The Packers have 11 players on their injury report which is 33.2% less than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries for this week and is 18.2% less than the Bears.

Player Props:

  • J. Love (QB) has gone under 1.5 passing TDs in his last 2 games.
  • J. Love (QB) has gone under 215.5 passing yards in his last 2 games.

Fantasy Highlights:

  • Jordan Love (QB) is the #13 ranked QB for fantasy this week and is facing the Bears defense who are the #2 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • Josh Jacobs (RB) is the #3 ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Bears defense who are the #2 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to running backs.

Mindy’s Pick: Bears +10 @ -110

The pick for this match-up is the Bears on the Spread at 10 with a variance of 1.36 points.  The Bears have more to play for since they have players that need to prove they are worth investing in while the Packers are looking for an easy tune up for the playoffs.  Take the points!!

 

If you enjoyed this article, be sure to check out this prediction between the Texans and the Titans here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2025/01/04/houston-texans-vs-tennessee-titans-prediction-01-05-25-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 38-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!