Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Facons Prediction 1/5/24 NFL

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction 01/05/25 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Carolina Panthers Line: 8.5
Atlanta Falcons Line: -8.5
Total: 48.0
TV: CBS

 

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction. On Sunday 01/05 the Carolina Panthers will take on the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.  This game features a match-up of two NFC South teams.  The NFC South is the #7 ranked conference in the NFL with a 40.7% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 4-12 Panthers are ranked #4 in the NFC South and the 8-8 Falcons are ranked #2.

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Panthers lost against the Buccaneers 14 to 48 in which they allowed the Buccaneers to gain a total of 551 yards of offense as Baker Mayfield had one of his best games statistically of his career. The Panthers were outscored by 34 while being outgained by the Buccaneers by 347 yards.  The Panthers are of course not in the playoff picture so they are playing for bonuses and\or auditioning for next season.

Last week the Falcons lost against the Commanders 24 to 30 while allowing the Commanders to gain 412 yards of total offense. The Falcons were outscored by 6 while being outgained by the Commanders by 75 yards.  The Falcons have an 11% chance of making the playoffs, but it is still a chance and the only scenario that has them getting into the playoffs requires the Falcons to win this week.

What is the Panthers plan for this week against the Falcons?

Skill Position Impact 

Panthers QB Bryce Young is ranked #24 for QB’s this week and he has completed 209 passes on 350 attempts and has averaged 165.5 yards per game with a completion percentage of 59.7% with 12 TDs and 9 INTs. His QBR is 19.6% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comeback and 3 game winning drives this season.

The Panthers running back Raheem Blackshear is the #156 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 2.2 yards per game and 3 yards per rush attempt with 0 TDs and he has fumbled twice. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 36.4% which is 28.6% less than the league average.

The Panthers tight end 1 Tommy Tremble is the #189 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 1.9 receptions per game while averaging 9.7 yards per reception to go along with 1 TDs and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 72.4% which is 0.4% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 48.3% is 16.3% less than the league average.

Wide receiver 1 for the Panthers is Xavier Legette who is ranked #83 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3.1 receptions per game with a 10.2 yards per catch average to go along with 4 TDs. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 58.2% which is 6.8% below league average and a receiving success rate of 43% which is 17% less than the league average for wide receivers.

The Panthers have Adam Thielen listed as wide receiver 2 for this game this week.  He is ranked as the #96 WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 4.8 receptions per game with a 13.3 yards per catch average with 5 TDs. Advanced receiving stats show him as having a catch success rate of 76.8% which is 34.8% above league average along with a receiving success rate of 58.9% which is 25.9% more than the league average for WR2’s for this stat.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Panthers

The Panthers offense has scored 297 points this season which is 18.8% less than the NFL average and have 22 turnovers which is an average of 1.4 turnovers per game. The Panthers offensive per drive statistics show that 31.4% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 12.6% of drives end with a turnover. The Panthers average 10.9 offensive drives per game and they average 5.4 plays, 26.5 yards, starting field position on their Own 30.0 yard line, and result in 1.72 points per drive. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Panthers have scored 26 red zone TDs on 44 red zone opportunities which is 13.3% lower and 15.5% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Panthers

The defense for Panthers has allowed 496 points in 2024 which is 35.7% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 16 turnovers which is an average of 1 turnover per game which is 16.7% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Panthers is allowing 176.9 rush yards per game and 21 rushing TDs. The Panthers pass defense is allowing 219.4 passing yards per game, 33 TDs, and 8 INTs.

A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Panthers defense blitzes at 29.1% with a QB hurry rate of 6%, a QB knockdown rate of 5.1% and a QB pressure rate of 16.1%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Panthers 

  • Panthers DE A’Shawn Robinson (neck) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons.
  • Panthers CB Lonnie Johnson Jr. (shoulder/neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons.
  • Panthers LB Amare Barno (shoulder) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons.
  • Panthers LB DJ Johnson (personal) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Falcons.
  • Panthers CB Jaycee Horn (hip) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Falcons.
  • Panthers LB Josey Jewell (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Falcons.
  • Panthers WR Xavier Legette (hip/wrist) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Falcons.
  • Panthers RB Miles Sanders is still on Injured Reserve and the latest update is Sanders (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Falcons..

There are 21 players on the Panthers injury report for this week which is 27.5% more than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries and is 36.4% less than the Falcons.

Player Props:

  • Without Chuba Hubbard, Vegas might not want to put many props out for Panthers players since they won’t get enough action to make it worth it.  It’s all about that juice!!
  • See Falcons player props for better options.

Fantasy Forecast:

  • B. Young (QB) is the #17 ranked QB for fantasy this week against the Falcons who are the #27 ranked defense in allowing fantast points to QBs.
  • R. Blacksheer (RB) is not ranked in the top 40 RBs this week for fantasy this week and is facing the Falcons defense that is the ranked #10 against allowing fantasy points to RBs. 

We know the Falcons need to win, so here are some key players in this week’s game against the Panthers?

Skill Position Impact 

Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. is ranked #45 on the QB statistics rankings for this week and he has completed 40 passes on 67 attempts and has averaged 115.8 yards per game with a completion percentage of 59.7% with 1 TD and 2 INTs. His QBR is 26.1% below the league average.

The Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is the #5 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 80.4 yards per game and 4.7 yards per rush attempt to go along with 12 TDs and 1 fumble. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 57.6% which is 13% more than the league average.

The Falcons tight end 1 Kyle Pitts is the #88 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 2.8 receptions per game while averaging 13 yards per reception to go along with 4 TDs. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 63.4% which is 12.8% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 40.8% is 29.3% less than the league average.

For the Falcons at wide receiver 1 is Drake London who is ranked #11 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 5.6 catches per game and 12 yards per reception to go with 7 TDs. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 64.3% which is 3% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 56.4% which is 8.8% more than the wide receiver league averages.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Falcons

The offense for the Falcons has scored 351 points so far this year which is 4% less than the NFL average and they have 23 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.4 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Falcons show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 38.4% of their drives whereas 13.8% of drives end with a fumble or interception. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Falcons have scored 25 red zone TDs on 48 attempts which is 16.7% lower and 7.9% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Falcons

The Falcons defense has allowed 379 points so far this year which is 3.7% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 18 turnovers for an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the rest of the league. The Falcons rush defense is giving up 118.5 rush yards per game to go along with 8 rushing TDs. The pass defense for the Falcons is allowing 221.7 pass yards per game, 31 passing TDs, and 12 INTs. 

The Falcons advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 20.8%, QB hurry rate of 8.8%, QB knockdown rate of 7.7% and QB pressure rate of 20.7%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Falcons

  • Falcons DT Brandon Dorlus (abdomen) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Panthers, Josh Kendall of The Athletic reports.
  • Falcons LB JD Bertrand (eye) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Panthers, Josh Kendall of The Athletic reports.
  • Falcons WR Darnell Mooney (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Panthers, Marc Raimondi of ESPN.com reports.

The Falcons have 15 players on their injury report which is 8.9% less than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries for this week and is 36.4% more than the Panthers.

Player Props:

  • B. Robinson (RB) has gone under 16.5 receiving yards in his last 4 games.
  • B. Robinson (RB) has gone under 48.5 rushing yards in his last 2 games.
  • T. Allgeier (RB) has gone under 35.5 rushing yards in his last 2 games.
  • M. Penix Jr. (QB) has gone under 1.5 TDs in both of his last 2 games.

Fantasy Highlights:

  • M. Penix Jr. (QB) is the #18 ranked QB for fantasy this week against the Panthers who are the #29 ranked defense in allowing fantast points to QBs.
  • B. Robinson (RB) is the #1 ranked fantasy RB this week and is facing the Falcons defense that is the ranked #30 in allowing fantasy points to that position.

Mindy’s Pick: Under 48 @ -110

Overall team efficiency stats have the Panthers ranked #31 while the Falcons come in ranked #18 in this week’s list.  The Under in the Falcons games is 10-6 and comes in 62.5% of the time with a +/- of -0.5 points. Based on these trends and my score prediction, the best bet for this match-up is on the total and is the Under 48 points.  My score projections for the total of this game is 38.31 so this pick has a variance of 9.69 points.  

 

If you enjoyed this article, check out this Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2025/01/04/washington-commanders-vs-dallas-cowboys-prediction-01-05-25-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 38-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!