Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Prediction 1/5/25 NFL

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Prediction 01/05/25 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Buffalo Bills Line: -2.5
New England Patriots Line: 2.5
Total: 38.0
TV: CBS

 

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Prediction. On Sunday 01/05 the Buffalo Bills will take on the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 31 °F with 11.4 mph wind and 0% chance of rain. This game features a match-up of two AFC East teams.  

The AFC East is the #6 ranked conference in the NFL with a 43.8% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 13-3 Bills are ranked #1 in the AFC East and the 3-13 Patriots are ranked #4. 

 

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Bills defeated the Jets 40 to 14 in which they allowed the Jets to gain a total of 281 yards of offense. The Bills picked up the win by 26 while out gaining the Jets by 67 yards with 3 fewer turnovers.  The Bills have clinched a playoff spot and will likely be quick to pull their starters in this game.

Last week the Patriots lost against the Chargers 7 to 40 while allowing the Chargers to gain 428 yards of total offense. The Patriots were outscored by 33 while being out gained by the Chargers by 247 yards and having 1 more turnover against the Chargers.  The Patriots are not in the playoff picture but are looking to gather more info in evaluating their younger talent such as Drake Maye.

What is the Bills plan for this week against the Patriots?

Skill Position Impact 

Bills QB Josh Allen is ranked #10 for QB’s this week and he has completed 307 passes on 483 attempts and has averaged 233.2 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.6% with 28 TDs and 6 INTs.  The Bills will start Allen to keep his consecutive start steak going but it might not take long for him to be pulled in order to get ready for the upcoming playoff games.

The Bills running back James Cook is the #20 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 65.4 yards per game and 5 yards per rush attempt while scoring 15 TDs and having 1 fumble. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 52.3% which is 2.6% more than the league average.

The Bills tight end 1 Dalton Kincaid is the #91 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.4 receptions per game while averaging 10.2 yards per reception to go along with 2 TDs and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 58.7% which is 19.3% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 53.3% is 7.7% less than the league average.

Wide receiver 1 for the Bills is Amari Cooper who is ranked #93 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3.1 receptions per game with a 12.4 yards per catch average to go along with 4 TDs. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 51.8% which is 17% below league average and a receiving success rate of 42.4% which is 18.2% less than the league average for wide receivers.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Bills

The Bills offense has scored 509 points this season which is 39.2% more than the NFL average and have 8 turnovers which is an average of 0.5 turnovers per game. The Bills offensive per drive statistics show that 50.9% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 4.9% of drives end with a turnover. The Bills average 10.2 offensive drives per game and they average 6.1 plays, 35.9 yards, starting field position on their Own 33.4 yard line, and result in 3 points per drive. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Bills have scored 46 red zone TDs on 65 red zone opportunities which is 53.3% higher and 24.8% higher than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Bills

The defense for Bills has allowed 345 points in 2024 which is 5.6% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 31 turnovers which is an average of 1.9 turnovers per game which is 58.3% more than the league average. The rush defense for the Bills is allowing 117.9 rush yards per game and 12 rushing TDs which is 1.4% lower and 20.5% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Bills pass defense is allowing 225.7 passing yards per game, 27 TDs, and 16 INTs. 

A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Bills defense blitzes at 18.8% with a QB hurry rate of 8.6%, a QB knockdown rate of 9.7% and a QB pressure rate of 23.6%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Bills 

  • Bills WR Curtis Samuel (rib) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Patriots.
  • Bills LB Terrel Bernard is listed as Out for this week’s game but the latest update is Coach Sean McDermott said Friday that he feels good about Bernard’s (quadriceps) chances of playing in next weekend’s playoff opener, Maddy Glab of the Bills’ official site reports.

There are 6 players on the Bills injury report for this week which is 63.6% less than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries and is 78.9% less than the Patriots.

Player Prop:

  • Not sure there will be much for props in this game with the Patriots not having much to play for.

Fantasy Forecast:

  • Josh Allen (QB) is the #32 ranked QB for fantasy this week and is facing the Patriots defense who are the #17 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • James Cook (RB) is the #35 ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Patriots defense who are the #25 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to running backs.

What are the Patriots looking to get out of their starters this week against the Bills?

Skill Position Impact 

Drake Maye is ranked #23 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 225 passes on 337 attempts and has averaged 189.7 yards per game with a completion percentage of 66.8% with 15 TDs and 10 INTs. His QBR is 1.2% below the league average.

The Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson is the #18 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 53.4 yards per game and 3.9 yards per rush attempt to go along with 7 TDs and 7 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 50.2% which is 1.5% less than the league average.

The Patriots tight end 1 Hunter Henry is the #35 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 4.1 receptions per game while averaging 10.2 yards per reception to go along with 2 TDs and 0 fumbles for the season.  Henry (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game versus the Bills, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.

For the Patriots at wide receiver 1 is Kendrick Bourne who is ranked #165 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 2.4 catches per game and 11.3 yards per reception to go with 1 TD. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 72.2% which is 15.6% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 52.8% which is 1.9% more than the wide receiver league averages.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Patriots

The offense for the Patriots has scored 266 points so far this year which is 27.2% less than the NFL average and they have 22 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.4 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Patriots show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 29.8% of their drives whereas 13.1% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Patriots offensive per drive averages are 10.5 drives per game with an average of 5.9 plays, 27.6 yards. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Patriots have scored 21 red zone TDs on 44 attempts which is 30% lower and 15.5% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Patriots

The Patriots defense has allowed 401 points so far this year which is 9.7% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 12 turnovers for an average of 0.8 turnovers per game which is 33.3% less than the rest of the league. The Patriots rush defense is giving up 131.4 rush yards per game to go along with 15 rushing TDs. The pass defense for the Patriots is allowing 216.7 pass yards per game, 26 passing TDs, and 7 INTs. 

The Patriots advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 25.4%, QB hurry rate of 7%, QB knockdown rate of 6.2% and QB pressure rate of 17.6%..

The Colts defense has allowed 404 points so far this year which is 10.5% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 24 turnovers for an average of 1.5 turnovers per game which is 25% more than the rest of the league. The Colts rush defense is giving up 133 rush yards per game to go along with 17 rushing TDs. The pass defense for the Colts is allowing 230.8 pass yards per game, 26 passing TDs, and 15 INTs. 

The Colts advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 17.7%, QB hurry rate of 8%, QB knockdown rate of 8% and QB pressure rate of 21%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Patriots

  • Patriots C Ben Brown (concussion) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Bills, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.
  • Patriots LB Anfernee Jennings (knee) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bills, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.
  • Patriots S Kyle Dugger (ankle/quadriceps) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bills, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.
  • Patriots S Jabrill Peppers (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bills, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.
  • Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bills, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.
  • Patriots WR Ja’Lynn Polk (shoulder) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bills, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.
  • Patriots TE Hunter Henry (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game versus the Bills, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports..

The Patriots have 19 players on their injury report which is 15.4% more than the NFL average of 16.47 injuries for this week and is 78.9% more than the Bills.

Player Prop:

  • There is not going to be much in this game for props due to the match-up between a playoff team that might rest starters and a bad Patriots team who is not sure how much any of their players will play this week.

Fantasy Highlights:

  • Drake Maye (QB) is the #9 ranked QB for fantasy this week and is facing the Bills defense who are the #8 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) is the #26 ranked RB for fantasy this week and is facing the Bills defense who are the #10 ranked defense against allowing fantasy points to running backs.

Mindy’s Pick: Patriots +3 @ -110

The Patriots have more to play for since they have players that need to prove they are worth investing in.  They also have a young quarterback that is still trying to prove himself while the Bills are looking for an easy tune up for the playoffs.  The Patriots covered last time so just take the points!  

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out this prediction between the Giants and the Eagles here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2025/01/04/new-york-giants-vs-philadelphia-eagles-prediction-01-05-25-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 38-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!