Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction 01/04/25 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction

Game Time: 4:30 PM EST
Cleveland Browns Line: 19.0
Baltimore Ravens Line: -19.0
Total: 41.5
TV: ABC

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction. On Saturday 01/04 the Cleveland Browns will take on the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. The forecast for Saturday is for a temp of 33 °F with 16.1 mph wind and a 1% chance of rain. 

This game features a match-up of two AFC North teams.  The AFC North is the #4 ranked conference in the NFL with a 50% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 3-13 Browns are ranked #4 in the AFC North and the 11-5 Ravens are ranked #1.

 

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Browns lost to the Dolphins 3 to 20 in which they allowed the Dolphins to gain a total of 280 yards of offense. The Browns were outscored by 17 while being only outgained by 4 yards but they had 2 more turnovers than the Dolphins.  The Browns are not in the playoff picture so they are playing for bonuses and auditioning for next season.

Last week the Ravens came out with a convincing victory against the Texans 31 to 2 while allowing the Texans to gain 211 yards of total offense. The Ravens won by 29 while outgaining the Texans by 221 yards.  The Ravens have clinched a playoff spot but need to win to stay ahead of the Steelers to win the division.

Who will play for the Browns against the Ravens this week?

Skill Position Impact 

Browns are starting Bailey Zappe at QB this week which will be his first action of the year.  Zappe last played for the Patriots and has limited success in his starts.

The Browns running back for the week will be D’Onta Foreman the #74 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 20.5 yards per game and 3.4 yards per rush attempt with 0 TDs and having 2 fumbles on the season.

Wide receiver 1 for the Browns is Jerry Jeudy who is ranked #13 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 5.3 receptions per game with a 13.9 yards per catch average to go along with 4 TDs. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 63.6% which is 5.2% above the league average, and a receiving success rate of 55.3% which is 10.3% more than the league average for wide receivers in this statistical category.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Browns

The Browns offense has scored 248 points this season which is 32.2% less than the NFL average and has 32 turnovers which is an average of 2 turnovers per game. The Browns’ offensive per-drive statistics show that 22.8% of their drives end in either an FG or touchdown while 15.9% of drives end with a turnover. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Browns have scored 17 red zone TDs on 34 red zone opportunities which is 43.3% lower and 34.7% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Browns

The defense for Browns has allowed 400 points in 2024 which is 9.4% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 12 turnovers which is an average of 0.8 turnovers per game which is 33.3% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Browns is allowing 124.1 rush yards per game and 20 rushing TDs which is 3.7% higher and 32.5% higher than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Browns pass defense is allowing 212.1 passing yards per game, 24 TD’s, and 4 INT’s. 

A look into the advanced team defense stats shows that Brown’s defense blitzes at 27.3% with a QB hurry rate of 8.4%, a QB knockdown rate of 13.2%, and a QB pressure rate of 27.5%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Browns 

  • Browns DE Ogbo Okoronkwo (knee) is questionable to play Saturday versus the Ravens.
  • Browns CB Cameron Mitchell(knee) is questionable to play in Saturday’s contest against the Ravens.
  • Browns DT Dalvin Tomlinson (knee) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game against the Ravens, Scott Petrak of the Elyria Chronicle-Telegram reports.
  • Browns TE Blake Whiteheart (knee) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s regular-season finale against the Ravens, Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
  • Browns WR Michael Woods (knee) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game at Baltimore.
  • Browns LB Jordan Hicks (concussion) is out for Saturday’s game at Baltimore, Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
  • Browns CB Denzel Ward (shoulder) is out for Saturday’s game against the Ravens, Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
  • Browns RB Pierre Strong Jr. (concussion) is out for Saturday’s game against the Ravens, Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
  • Browns TE David Njoku (knee) has been ruled out for Saturday’s game against the Ravens.
  • Browns QB Jameis Winston (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game at Baltimore, Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
  • Browns RB Jerome Ford (ankle) has been ruled out for Saturday’s game against the Ravens.
  • Browns WR Cedric Tillman is on Injured Reserve and will not play in this week’s game.  The latest update is The Browns placed Tillman (concussion) on injured reserve Tuesday.

There are 25 players on the Browns injury report for this week which is 55.4% more than the NFL average of 16.09 injuries and is 93.2% less than the Ravens.

Player Props:

  • J. Gibbs has gone over 3.5 receptions and 29.5 receiving yards in each of his last 3 games.
  • J. Goff (QB) has gone over 1.5 passing TDs in each of his last 4 games and over 251.5 passing yards in each of his last 3 games.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • S. LaPorta (TE) has gone over 10 fantasy points in each of his last 4 games.
  • J. Goff (QB) has gone over 17.5 fantasy points in each of his last 3 games and he is projected for 18.4 this week. 

What are the Ravens starters this week as they face the Browns?

Skill Position Impact 

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is ranked #6 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 300 passes on 442 attempts and has averaged 247.2 yards per game with a completion percentage of 67.9% with 39 TD’s and 4 INT’s. His QBR is 30.6% above the league average and he has 2 fourth-quarter comebacks and 2 game-winning drives this season.

The Ravens running back Derrick Henry is the #3 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 111.4 yards per game and 5.8 yards per rush attempt to go along with 14 TD’s and 3 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 59% which is 15.8% more than the league average for this statistic.

The Ravens tight end 1 Mark Andrews is the #66 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.2 receptions per game while averaging 12.1 yards per reception to go along with 10 TDs and 0 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 83.6% which is 15.5% above the league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 70.5% is 23.6% more than the league average for these statistics.

For the Ravens wide receiver, #1 is Zay Flowers who is ranked #27 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 4.6 catches per game and 14.3 yards per reception to go with 4 TDs and 0 fumbles on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 64% which is 5.9% above the league average combined with a receiving success rate of 53.5% which is 6.7% more than the wide receiver league averages.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Ravens

The offense for the Ravens has scored 483 points so far this year which is 32.1% more than the NFL average and they have 11 turnovers on offense for an average of 0.7 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Ravens show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 47.6% of their drives whereas 6.5% of drives end with a fumble or interception. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical and the Ravens have scored 46 red zone TD’s on 62 attempts which is 53.3% higher and 19% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Ravens

The Raven’s defense has allowed 351 points so far this year which is 4% less than the league average for points allowed while creating 15 turnovers for an average of 0.9 turnovers per game which is 25% less than the rest of the league. The Ravens rush defense is giving up 81.6 rush yards per game to go along with 12 rushing TDs. The pass defense for the Ravens is allowing 248.5 pass yards per game, 26 passing TDs, and 10 INT’s. 

The Raven’s advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 21.1%, QB hurry rate at 6.4%, QB knockdown rate at 10.2%, and QB pressure rate at 23.2%. 

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Ravens

  • Ravens CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (hamstring) has been ruled out for Saturday’s regular-season finale against the Browns.
  • Ravens TE Charlie Kolar is on Injured Reserve and will not play in this week’s game.  The latest update is Kolar (forearm) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game against Cleveland.
  • Ravens RB Justice Hill (illness/concussion) has been ruled out for Saturday’s regular-season finale against the Browns.
  • Patrick Mekari is listed as Questionable for this week’s game.

The Ravens have 10 players on their injury report which is 37.8% less than the NFL average of 16.09 injuries for this week and is 93.2% more than the Browns.

Player Props:

  • J. Jennings (WR) has gone under 4.5 receptions and 65.5 receiving yards in both his last 2 games.
  • B. Purdy (QB) has gone over 0.5 INTs in both of his last 2 games.

Fantasy Highlights:

  • J. Jennings (WR) has gone under 13.5 fantasy points in both of his last 2 games.
  • B. Purdy (QB) is projected for 19.2 fantasy points this week.  Purdy is the #6 ranked QB for fantasy this week and is facing the #25 ranked defense for giving up fantasy points to QBs.

Mindy’s Prediction: Browns +19 @ -110

Zappe has been okay in his starts, and I would think the Ravens will pull their starters on offense and defense out of the game to rest and protect them as soon as they get ahead by 2 touchdowns which will let the Browns creep back in for a cover.  The pick for this match-up is the Browns on the Spread at 19 with a variance of 1.72 points. 

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out this match-up between the Bengals and Steelers here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/?p=248684&preview=true

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 38-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!