Buffalo vs Liberty Game Information
| Game: | Buffalo vs Liberty Prediction 1/4/2025: College Football Picks |
| What: | Bahamas Bowl Presented by Atlantis Resorts |
| When: | Saturday, January 4, 2025 at 11:00 am EST/8:00 am PST |
| Where: | Thomas A. Robinson Stadium (Grass), Nassau, Bahamas |
| Buffalo vs Liberty Line: | Buffalo -3 |
| Total: | 50.5 |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Buffalo vs Liberty Preview
Buffalo (8-4, 6-2 in MAC) faces Liberty (8-3, 5-3 in Conference USA) in the Bahamas Bowl Presented by Atlantis Resorts at Thomas A. Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas on Saturday morning. In their last 5 games, the Bulls have gone 4-1, losing to Ohio by 31 (47-16), then winning their last 4 in a row, topping Akron by 11 (41-30), Ball State by 2 in OT (51-48), Eastern Michigan by 17 (37-20) and Kent State by 36 in the last Regular Season MAC meeting (43-7). In their last 5, the Flames have gone 3-2, losing to Jacksonville State by 10 (31-21), beating Middle Tennessee State by 20 (37-17), Massachusetts by 1 in OT (35-34), Western Kentucky by 17 (38-21), and then losing by 2 to Sam Houston State in their Conference USA Regular Season finale (20-18). Buffalo has been to 6 Bowl games and lost the first 3 and then won the last 3, including the 2024 Camellia Bowl by 2 over Georgia Southern (23-21). Buffalo has been to 5 Bowl games, and gone 2-3, losing 2 straight and last year in the 2023 Fiesta Bowl to Oregon by 39 (45-6).
Buffalo Looking For Some Revenge vs Liberty?
Buffalo (7-5-0 ATS, 7-4-1 O/U) lost to Liberty last Regular Season at Home by 28 (55-27) in a game where the Bulls (-155 Moneyline) were outgained 569-363 with the hosts having 2 TOs and the visitors 0. But Buffalo sucked last year (3-9) and had 2 separate 4-game Losing Streaks. This year’s team is much better and beat the Northern Illinois team who beat Notre Dame who could very well be the 2025 NCAA Football national champions. The Bulls only have 2 players in the Transfer Portal and their Depth Chart is basically the same as the Regular Season, so a slight edge to Buffalo in that regard. K Javien Cuff is one of those guys (committed to Texas Tech) but he is still on the Depth Chart and should play here in the Bahamas. WR Javien Cuff (127 Receiving yards, TD) Is the other player. CB Marquis Cooper (55 Tackles, 2 Interceptions) missed the last game of the year but is on the Buffalo Depth Chart, so we may see him playing here on Saturday.
Buffalo Betting Trends
- Buffalo is 4-0-0 SU in in its last 4 games overall
- The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 Bulls games
- The Bulls are 3-0 in its last 3 Bowl games
- The Bulls are 0-2-0 ATS in their last 2 vs Liberty
- Buffalo is 3-1-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall
Liberty Has Many of its Players in the Transfer Portal
Liberty (3-8-0 ATS, 5-1-1 O/U) has 6 guys in the Transfer Portal who won’t be playing including Starting QB Kaidon Slater (1,886 Passing yards, 15 TD, 6 Interceptions) who has committed to Colorado next season where he will presumably replace Sheduer Sanders in Boulder. There are also 3 Starting OL—LG Jordan White (Vanderbilt), LT Jordan Hall, and RT Xavior Gray (Northwestern)—who won’t be playing but the Flames (+130 Moneyline) have enough depth on the OL and have 5 guys ready to start who can handle the blocking assignments. On defense, Starting DLs Bryce Dixon and Eliyt Nairne (Tulane) are also in the Transfer Portal. Liberty also has a number of players dealing with Injuries who aren’t expected to play including Starting S Brylan Green and LB Aidan Vaughan. Transfer Ryan Burger (Appalachian State) is expected to get the start at QB. Burger had just 7 Passing Attempts and 48 Passing yards, so Buffalo has the Roster and Depth Chart edge here and this is why the Point Spread has gone from (Liberty minus) 2.5 to (Buffalo minus) 3 points.
Liberty Betting Trends
- Liberty is 0-2 SU in its last 2 Bowl games
- The Flames are 2-5-0 ATS in their last 7 games
- The Under is 3-2-0 in the last 5 Liberty games
- Liberty is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games overall
- The Flames were ATS Favorites in all 11 games this Regular Season
Buffalo vs Liberty Prediction
In their 2 meetings, Liberty is 2-0 SU/ATS, winning that aforementioned game at Buffalo last season as 2.5-Point Road Favorites (55-27) in a game that went way Over the closing Total of 54 with the visitors eclipsing that mark themselves by 1 point. When the two teams met at Liberty in 2019, Buffalo were actually 6-Point Road Favorites, but the Flames won outright by 18 (35-17), again outgaining Buffalo (401-373) in a game that went Under the closing Total of 55.5 by just 2.5 points. With the Weather sure to be nice in Nassau (Partly Cloudy, 72°), this Buffalo vs Liberty NCAAF pick will look to the Totals market and expect a relatively high-scoring game with both teams likely to score over 24 points. Yes, 25-25 is still an Under, but no games in The Digital Age have ever ended 25-25 Bubba, so expect Buffalo to top 30 with their more experienced players playing in this one. Remember the early kickoff time here.
This is the last “basic” Bowl game of 2025. Independents (3-0 SU) and the American Athletic Conference (AAC, 6-1, 85.7%) did the best this time around while the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) embarrassed themselves this Bowl season (2-10, 16.7%)— Virginia Tech was yet to play in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl on Friday—with the two biggest Bowl games (Orange and Cotton) also left with Penn State and Notre Dame playing in the former (Thursday, January 9) and Texas and Ohio State meeting in the latter (Friday, January 10) to see who will play in the 2025 College Football playoff (CFP) National Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Monday, January 20 (ESPN, 7:30 EST/4:30 PST) where a new champion will be crowned.
Kevin’s Pick: Buffalo-Liberty Over 50.5