Baylor vs Iowa State Information

Baylor vs Iowa State Preview

No. 25 Baylor (9-3, 1-0 in Big 12) travels to Ames, Iowa on Saturday afternoon to face No. 3 Iowa State (11-1, 1-0 in Big 12) in the second Big 12 Conference game for both teams. In their last 5, the Bears are 4-1, losing to two-time defending champions Connecticut by 4 (76-72), beating Abilene Christian by 31 (88-57), Norfolk State by 25 (94-69), Arlington Baptist by 54 (107-53), and Utah in its last game by 25 (81-56) in the first Big 12 meeting between the two. In their last 5 games, the Cyclones have gone 5-0, trampling Jacksonville State by 42 (100-58), beating rivals Iowa by 9 at Iowa City (89-80), throttling Omaha by 32 (83-51), manhandling Morgan State by 27 (99-72), and rolling Colorado by 10 in their conference opener (79-69). Popular online sportsbook DraftKings has Iowa State at 15/1 to win the 2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament with Baylor currently priced at 50/1 longshots.

Baylor Has Played 8 Overs in its First 11 Games

Baylor (5-6-0 ATS, 8-3-0 O/U) has been a good Over team, and although the Bears have 3 SU Losses, don’t sleep on this team as their Losses have come to Final 4 worthy schools: two-time defending champions UConn, No. 1-ranked and unbeaten Tennessee, and perennial powerhouse Gonzaga. Last season, Baylor went 24-11 (11-7 in the Big 12) and made it all the way to March Madness where they brushed Colgate in the First Round (92-67) before being ousted by Clemson in the Second Round (84-72). Twenty-one-year Head Coach Scott Drew and the program lost some key pieces from last year’s team to the NBA including Keyonte George (Jazz) and Adam Flagler (Thunder), while sparkplug LJ Cryer transferred to Houston, Dale Bonner transferred to Ohio State, and Jordan Turner transferred to Louisiana Tech. But the Bears had a nice recruiting class and had two players transfer in. The Bears (+290 Moneyline) currently have five players in double-digits in stud F Norchad Omier (16.1 ppg, 10.7 rpg), G Robert Wright III (13.1 ppg, 5.4 apg), G Jeremy Roach (12.5 ppg, 4.1 apg), G Jayden Nunn (11.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg)—a VCU Transfer—and G VJ Edgecombe (12.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.2 apg).

Baylor Betting Trends

• This will be Baylor’s first Road game in exactly a month (December 4, @UCONN)
• The Over is 4-1-0 in the Bears last 5 games
• Baylor is 2-5-0 ATS in its last 7 games overall after covering 3 straight
• The Over is 7-2-0 in Baylor’s last 9 lined games
• The Bears went 20-12-0 ATS last 2-23-24 NCAAB season (62.5%)
• Baylor is 0-9-0 ATS in its last 9 games vs Iowa State

Iowa State Looks to Continue Basketball Brilliance

Iowa State (6-6-0 ATS, 7-5-0 O/U) has been incredible the last 2 seasons, going a combined 40-9 SU heading into this showdown with Baylor. Head Coach TJ Otzelberger and the Cyclones are led by G Keshon Gilbert (16.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 5.0 apg), G Curtis Jones (16.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg), F Joshua Jefferson (11.6 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.6 apg), F Milan Momcilovic (11.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg), C Dishon Jackson (10.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg), and G Tamin Lipsey (10.1 ppg, 3.6 apg). Iowa State is averaging a healthy 87.7 ppg (#7) while allowing only 65.8 ppg (+21.9 ppg Point Differential) and the Cyclones (-375 Moneyline) are tied for No. 37 in Assists Per Game (17.4) and No. 180 in Rebounds (36.8) The Transfer Portal really helped Iowa State team a lot with Jefferson (St. Mary’s), Jackson (Charlotte), Nate Heise (Northern Iowa), and Brandton Chatfield (Seattle) all coming in to provide this still No. 3-ranked team some valuable depth as it looks forward to another appearance and deep Tournament run in the Spring.

Iowa State Betting Trends

• The Cyclones are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games overall
• ISU’s L3 losses: Kansas St (Big 12 Tourney), Houston (NCAA Tourney), Auburn
• The Cyclones are 28-14-0 ATS in their last 42 games
• The Over is 7-2 in the Cyclones last 9 after 6 straight Unders
• The Cyclones are 5-2-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall
• Iowa State was the 7th best team ATS last season (25-11-1, 69.4%)

Baylor vs Iowa State Prediction

Even though Baylor has gone 6-4 SU in the last 10 series meetings, the Cyclones are an amazing 9-1-0 ATS over that span, winning the last 9 in a row and going 4-0-0 ATS in the last 5 in Ames despite losing 2 of the 4. But Baylor was a better team back then and now Iowa State is in the top 10 teams in the land at this point in time. The Over is 6-4-0 over that span, going 6-2-0 in the last 8. Last year in the Regular Season, Baylor won by 2 in Waco but were giving 4 points while in the Big 12 Tournament last March at a Neutral Site, Iowa State won by 14 (76-62) with the Cyclones covering ATS as small 2-Point Favorites at the T-Mobile Center. So this Baylor vs Iowa State NCAAB pick will not look to step in front of the ATS train that is the Cyclones. Nine straight covers (vs Baylor) is 9 straight covers and if this team was good enough to rally from a Halftime deficit and beat the Hawkeyes in Iowa City, beating the Bears by 9 or more in Ames seems logical. The Cyclones only Loss has been to now No. 2-ranked Auburn (83-81). 

Kevin’s Pick: Iowa State -8.5