Florida vs Kentucky Prediction

What:	Florida vs Kentucky Prediction 1/4/2025: College Basketball Picks
When:	Saturday, January 4, 2025 at 11:00 am EST/8:00 am PST
Where	Rupp Arena, Lexington, Kentucky
Florida vs Kentucky Line:	Kentucky -1.5
Total:	165.5
TV:	ESPN

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction

The first game on a busy and entertaining slate on this first Saturday in January sees unbeaten No. 6 Florida (13-0, 0-0 in SEC) heading to Lexington to face No. 10 Kentucky (11-2, 0-0 in SEC) in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) opener for both sides. In their last 5 games, the Gators have gone a perfect 5-0, beating Virginia by 18 (87-69), Arizona State by 17 (83-66), North Carolina by 6 (90-84), North Florida by 54 (99-45), and Stetson by 41 in their last outing (85-45). In their last 5, the Wildcats are 4-1, knocking off two-time defending champions Gonzaga by 1 in OT (99-98), brushing Colgate by 11 (78-67), topping state rivals Louisville by 8 (93-85), losing to Ohio State by 20 (85-65), and painting Brown black by 34 in their last game (88-54). Online sportsbook DraftKings has Florida currently priced at 19/1 to win the 2025 NCAA Basketball Tournament with Kentucky at 20/1. Let’s get to my Prediction.

Florida Perfect into Southeastern Conference Play

Florida (10-3-0 ATS, 5-8-0 O/U) has been spotless heading into this tipoff of SEC play and pretty darn good to its betting backers, winning 10 of the 13 games it has played. The Gators (-104 Moneyline) will face a tough task here and are still ranked behind two SEC counterparts in No. 1 Tennessee and No. 2 Alabama. Florida is led by Walter Clayton Jr. (17.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.3 spg), Alijah Martin (15.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.8 spg), G Will Richard (14.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg), F Alex Condon (11.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg), F Thomas Haugh (7.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg), G Denzel Aberdeen (7.2 ppg), and F Sam Alexis (6.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg). The Gators average 87.4 ppg (#8) allow 63.5 ppg, and average a respectable 45.7 rpg (#2) and 16.2 apg (#86). Florida ranks No. 2 in the country in Scoring Margin (+23.9 ppg).

Florida Betting Trends

Florida is 9-1-0 ATS in its last 10 games overall
The Under is 5-2-0 in the Gators’ last 7 games
Florida went 16-19-1 ATS last 2023-24 NCAAB season (45.7%)
The Gators are 22-4 SU in their last 26 games (Losses to AUB, VAN, SC, ALA)
Florida is 26-10 on the Moneyline in its last 36 games (+13.15 Units, 1% ROI)

Kentucky Seeking its 9th Win in 11 Games vs Florida

Kentucky (6-6-1 ATS, 7-6-0 O/U) has won 7 straight games with the Wildcats (-115 Moneyline) only 2 Losses this season coming to Ohio State and Clemson. The Wildcats have scored over 100 points 4 times already this season and have upset both Duke (State Farm Champions Game) and Gonzaga. Kentucky has 6 players averaging double-figures in G Otega Oweh (15.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg), G Lamont Butler (13.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.1 apg), G Koby Brea (11.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg), G Jaxson Robinson (11.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg), F Andrew Carr (11.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.6 apg) and C Amari Williams (10.1 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.2 apg). With the additions of Transfers Oweh (Oklahoma), Butler (San Diego State), Carr (Wake Forest), Williams (Drexel), Ansley Almonor (5.2 ppg, Fairleigh Dickinson), Kerr Kriisa (4.4 ppg, West Virginia) and Brandon Garrison (5.5 ppg, Oklahoma State), new Head Coach Mark Pope has an incredibly deep squad in Lexington. The Wildcats (#10) are among a plethora of SEC teams ranked in the Top 25 along with Auburn (#1), Tennessee (#2), Alabama (#5), this Florida side (#6), Oklahoma (#12), Texas A&M (#13), Mississippi State (#17), Arkansas (#23) and Ole Miss (#24).

Kentucky Betting Trends

Kentucky ranks #3 in the nation in Scoring (89.0 ppg)
The Wildcats were 18-15-0 ATS in 2023-24
Kentucky is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The Over is 16-6-0 in the UK’s last 22 Home games (+9.40 Units, 39%)
Wildcats Team Total Over is 15-7-0 the last 22 at Home (+6.92 Units, 27% ROI)
Kentucky is just 2-6-0 ATS the last 8 games overall