North Texas vs Texas State Prediction
| What: | SERVPRO First Responder Bowl |
| When: | Friday, January 3, 2025, at 4:00 EST/1:00 PST |
| Where: | Gerald J. Ford Stadium (FieldTurf), Dallas, Texas |
| North Texas vs Texas State Line: | Texas State -13.5 |
| Total: | 60.5 |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
North Texas vs Texas State Prediction
North Texas (6-6, 3-5 in AAC) meets Texas State (7-5, 5-3 in Sun Belt) in the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl in Dallas on Friday afternoon. In their last 5, the Mean Green are 1-4, losing four straight to Tulane by 8 (45-37), Army by 11 (14-3), UTSA by 21 (48-27), and East Carolina by 12 (40-28) before beating Temple by 7 in their last game by 7 to become Bowl-eligible (24-17), In their last 5, the Bobcats are 3-2, losing to Louisiana by 6 (23-17), beating UL Monroe by 21 (38-17) and Southern Miss by 55 (58-3), losing to Georgia State by 8 (52-44), and then topping South Alabama by 7 in their last game (45-38). This First Responder Bowl will be the first meeting between these 2 teams as Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) members.
North Texas Sees Many Players in Transfer Portal
North Texas (4-8-0 ATS, 8-4-0 O/U) has been bad ATS (33.3%), good for Over bettors (66.7%), and the Mean Green (+348 Moneyline) are really lucky to be here after a scoreless Second Half in that 24-17 victory over Temple. North Texas has an alarming number of players who entered the Transfer Portal, including 4 key Starters on offense in QB Chandler Morris (Virginia), WR DT Sheffield (Rutgers), TE Oscar Hammond (Oregon State), and C Tyler Mercer (Kansas), so the Mean Green will have true Freshman starting at TE and at one of the WR positions. And another true Freshman, Drew Mestemaker will be starting at QB so you can see why this Point Spread is now as high as it is. North Texas averages 34.0 ppg (Tied-#28) while allowing 34.5 ppg (#121) and average an impressive 322.8 Passing Yards Per Game (#4) and 165.8 Rushing Yards Per Game (#63), but those statistics were carved with Morris, Sheffield, and WR Nick Rempert (Transfer Portal) on the Depth Chart.
North Texas Betting Trends
- North Texas is 0-6 in its last Bowl appearances
- A Loss here and NT ties Indiana, UTEP with longest Bowl Losing Streak (7)
- The Mean Green are 3-7-0 ATS in their last 10 games
- The Over is 7-3-0 in North Texas’s last 10 games
- North Texas is 0-5-0 ATS in its last 5 games overall
Texas State May be Without QB Much of This Bowl
Texas State (6-6-0 ATS, 8-4-0 O/U) has also been a solid Over team (66.7%) and didn’t need a last game of the Regular Season win to become Bowl-eligible. Still, with starting QB Jordan McCloud (2,990 Passing yards, 29 TD, 12 Interceptions) said not to be playing “significant snaps,” this team will also be without many of its key cogs, including Starters RB Ismail Mahdi (committed to Arizona; 991 Rushing yards), RT Alex Harkey (Oregon), CB Josh Eaton (Michigan State), DTs Terry Webb and Tavian Coleman, and DE Ben Bell, all of whom entered the Transfer Portal. DE Steven Parker also missed the final 3 games and TE Konner Fox didn’t play in the Regular Season Finale. The Bobcats (-477 Moneyline) will be playing in their second First Responder Bowl after boiling Rice by 24 in last year’s game in Dallas (45-21).
Texas State Betting Trends
- Texas State has only played in 1 Bowl game before (2023)
- The Bobcats are 3-1-0 SU in their last 4 games overall
- The Over is a perfect 4-0-0 in North Texas’s last 4 games
- The Over is 8-4-0 in 12 Bobcats game this season
- North Texas went 8-4-0 ATS in the 2023-24 NCAAF Season (66.7%)
North Texas vs Texas State Prediction
This will be the 40th time North Texas and Texas State have played, with the Mean Green leading the series 28-7-3. The 2 schools were members of the now defunct Lone Star Conference (1932-1983) with North Texas previously being called North Texas State and Texas State previously being called Southwest Texas State. This North Texas vs Texas State NCAAF pick will back the Favorites for many reasons, including the Mean Green being without QB Morris, WR Sheffield, and so many key players, having a negative Point Differential (-0.5 ppg), and barely squeezing into a Bowl game. And also, Texas State is a better football team, even if its Starting QB may be limited to a certain number of snaps. The ESPN College Football Power Index has North Texas with a -7.2 FPI with Texas State sitting at +2.4. This game opened at (Texas State minus) 7.5 and has been bet up 6 points already (Tuesday afternoon) to its current 13.5 at all major sportsbooks, so like with many Bowls, information on who is in the Transfer Portal and who will play and how much has affected the Point Spread. The Total opened at 67.5 and has been bet down heavily 6 to 7 Points to its current 60.5 to 61.5 range.
Kevin’s Pick: Texas State -13.5