Duke vs Ole Miss Prediction

Duke vs Ole Miss Prediction

Duke (9-3, 5-3 in ACC) faces No. 14-ranked Ole Miss (9-3, 5-3 in SEC) in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida on Thursday night. In their last 4 games, the Blue Devils have gone 3-2, losing back-to-back games to CFP participants SMU by 1 in OT (28-27) and to Miami Florida by 22 (53-31) and then winning their last 3 against NC State by 10 (29-19), Virginia Tech by 3 (31-28), and Wake Forest by 6 in their last game (23-17). In their last 5, the Rebels went 4-1, beating Oklahoma by 12 (26-14), Arkansas by 32 (63-31), CFP Quarterfinalist Georgia by 18 at Oxford (28-10), losing at Florida by 7 (24-17), and then losing by 12 to rivals Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl (26-14).

Duke Without its Star QB Murphy For the Gator Bowl

Duke (8-3-1 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U) is 8-8 in 16 Bowl games in the program’s history with the Blue Devils (+527 Moneyline) winning their last 5 straight—including last year in the 2023 Birmingham Bowl over Troy by 7 (27-20)—after losing their previous 5 in a row (1989 to 2014). Duke is led by QB Maalik Murphy (2,955 Passing yards, 26 TD, 12 interceptions), but he has committed to Auburn so Henry Berlin IV (7 Passing yards on 1 Attempt) will get the start with backup QB Grayson Loftis also entering the Transfer Portal. Starting RB Star Thomas (871 Rushing yards, 7 TD) also entered the Transfer Portal and WR Jordan Moore (798 Receiving yards, 7 TD) is a potential Opt-Out but Head Coach Manny Diaz said he doesn’t expect anyone else to be an Opt-Out. Duke averages 28.3 ppg (#66) while allowing 22.2 ppg (#37) and averages 245.0 Passing Yards Per Game (Tied-#43) and 96.5 Rushing Yards Per Game (#127).

Duke Betting Trends

• Duke is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games overall
• The Blue Devils are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games
• The Under is 5-2-0 in Duke’s last 7 games
• Duke is 3-0-0 SU/ATS in its last 3 games
• The Blue Devils are 5-0 SU in their last 5 Bowl appearances

Ole Miss Has Played 9 Unders in its Last 10 Games

Mississippi (7-5-0 ATS, 2-10-0 O/U) have been a massive Under team, with only Appalachian State (8-2-1 U/O) and Houston (10-2-0 U/O) equaling the Rebels (83.3% Unders) in the Totals market. Ole Miss is led by star QB Jaxon Dart (3,875 Passing yards, 25 TD, 6 Interceptions), RB Henry Parrish Jr. (678 Rushing yards, 10 TD), and WR Tre Harris (1,030 Receiving yards), but Parrish Jr. and Harris are dealing with Injuries and Harris is also a possible Opt-Out. But with Dart expected to play, at least the Rebels (-824 Moneyline) have their starting QB here while Duke will be without its top 2 signal callers. LB Chris Paul Jr. is an Opt-Out and this team has 5 other potential Opt-Outs and 5 guys in the Transfer Portal, including starting RT Miccah Pettus (signed with FSU) and starting CB Jadon Canady. Ole Miss has an all-time Record of 26-15 and beat Penn State in the Peach Bowl last year. The Rebels average 37.5 ppg (#11) and play some impressive defense (13.9 ppg, #4) while averaging an impressive 343.6 Passing Yards Per Game (#3) and 177.8 Rushing Yards Per Game (#45). Only CFP Quarterfinals Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Texas have a better Scoring Defenses than Mississippi.

Ole Miss Betting Trends

• Mississippi is 7-3-0 SU in its last 10 games overall
• The Rebels are 2-4-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall
• The Under is 3-0-0 in Mississippi’s last 5 games
• The Under is 10-1-0 in the last 11 Rebels games
• Mississippi went 7-4-2 ATS in the 2023-24 NCAAF Season (63.6%)

Duke vs Ole Miss Prediction

The four things that stand out here when handicapping this game are 1—QB Jaxon Dart is playing for Ole Miss; 2—QB Maalik Murphy isn’t playing for Duke; 3—The Rebels have the 4th best Scoring Defense in FBS; and, 4—The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) has done the worst of all conferences so far this Bowl season, sitting at 2-9 after Louisville held off Washington, 35-34 in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl to get the Frosted Flakes® bath on New Year’s Eve (Tuesday) after the Huskies went for the 2-Point Conversion and its pass fell incomplete. The SEC was 5-4 after Alabama and South Carolina lost on Tuesday. So this Duke vs Ole Miss NCAAF pick will back the team with its starting QB, the better defense, the one who had the better season, and the one who plays in the better Football conference. The Rebels had an incredible season and almost made the CFP (ranked no. 14) and are probably the best team not playing in this first-ever College Football Playoff (CFP) although the Injuries to Parrish Jr. and Harris leave them without 2 of their best Skill Position players here.

Kevin’s Pick: Ole Miss -17 (Draft Kings)

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