Ohio State vs Oregon Prediction
| What: | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl |
| When: | Wednesday, January 1, 2025 at 5:00 EST/2:00 PST |
| Where: | Rose Bowl (Bermuda Grass), Pasadena, California |
| Ohio State vs Oregon Line: | Ohio State -2.5 |
| Total: | 55.5 |
| TV: | ESPN |
Ohio State vs Oregon Prediction
The third College Football Playoff Quarterfinals (CFP) game is a classic and could be a National Championship Game any other year when No. 1-seed Oregon (13-0, 9-0 in Big Ten) faces No. 8-seed Ohio State (11-2, 7-2 in Big Ten) at the historic Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California on Wednesday evening. These two teams met earlier this year in Big Ten Regular Season play in one of the best games of the year, with the Ducks holding off the Buckeyes by 1 (32-31) at Autzen Stadium on October 12. Popular online sportsbook DraftKings has Ohio State at the second shortest odds to win the CFP at +340 (behind Texas at +320) with unbeaten and top-seed Oregon at +450 and the oddsmaker’s third choice, so whoever wins her should supplant the Longhorns (if they win) heading into the Semifinals. The winner of this game will get the Texas-Arizona State winner in those Semis.
In their last 5 games, the Buckeyes are 4-1, shutting out Purdue by 45 (45-0), winning at Northwestern by 24 (31-7), knocking off Indiana by 23 (38-15), losing to rivals Michigan at The Shoe by 3 (13-10), and then beating Tennessee by 25 last weekend in the CFP First Round in Columbus (42-17). In their last 5, the Ducks are a perfect 5-0, beating Michigan by 21 in Ann Arbor (38-17), shelling Maryland by 21 in Eugene in a game with a similar score (39-18), edging Wisconsin by 3 in Madison (15-13), clobbering old Pac-12 and new Big Ten rivals Washington by 28 (49-21), and then holding off Penn State by 8 in the Big Ten Championship Game (45-37). The No. 6-seed Nittany Lions will face Ashton Jeanty and No. 3-seed Boise State on Tuesday and New Year’s Eve in the first CFP Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona (ESPN, 7:30 EST/4:30 PST; PSU -11, 53.5).
Ohio State Seeks Revenge in Rematch with Ducks Prediction
Ohio State (7-6-0 ATS, 6-7-0 O/U) heads in here as the No. 8 seed but are the oddsmakers Favorites in this can’t-miss Quarterfinal from a Site both schools are familiar with. Last week, the Buckeyes throttled Tennessee at Home to advance to this game, with QB Will Howard going 24-for-29 for 311 Passing yards, 2 TD and 1 Interception, connecting with Freshman WR Jeremiah Smith (6 Receptions, 103 Receiving yards, 2 TD) twice for scores with RB Treveyon Henderson (10 Rushes, 80 Rushing yards, 2 TD) also getting into the end zone twice for the host Buckeyes. Ohio State outgained Tennessee 472-256 as the Buckeyes defense was stout as ever and the hosts easily covered the 7-Point Spread.
The Buckeyes (-130 Moneyline) have allowed up more than 17 points only once—in a 32-21 setback to this same No. 1 Oregon side in the best game of the NCAAF season—so far and Ohio State shut out Western Michigan and Purdue and allowed just 7 points to Michigan State, Iowa, and Northwestern. The Buckeyes are allowing just 11.4 ppg (#1) while scoring 37.8 ppg (#8), thanks in great part to some amazing skill guys in Howard, Henderson, Smith, RB Quinshon Judkins, and WRs Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate. Many are calling for Head Coach Ryan Day’s head if he doesn’t win it all this year with this Roster, but these are just bitter fans (short for fanatics) mad that Michigan won it all last year and beat the Buckeyes this season. Only one team wins it all in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) every season and they always deserve it. Worry about something else.
Ohio State Betting Trends
- Ohio State is 44-8 SU in its last 52 games overall
- Of those 8 Losses, 4 were to Michigan, 2 to Oregon (+ GEORGIA, MISSOURI in Bowls)
- The Buckeyes are 9-2 lifetime ve Oregon (L2 straight)
- The Under is 7-3-0 in the last 10 Ohio State games
- Ohio State is 4-2-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall
Oregon Looking For 21st Win in its Last 22 Games
Oregon (7-6-0 ATS, 6-7-0 O/U) is an elite College Football program, losing just one time in its last 21 games (to rivals Washington last season in the FBS Semifinals) and sending QB Bo Nix to the NFL where he has helped make the Denver Broncos a legit team in the AFC West. The Ducks (+100 Moneyline) survived two really tough games to two of the other teams still alive in the CFP Quarterfinals, topping MWC heavyweights Boise State and then No. 6 Ohio State in Eugene in that aforementioned thriller that could have gone either way. If any team deserved a CFP first-round bye this season, it was Oregon. The Ducks average 37.9 ppg (#7) while allowing just 17.8 ppg (#120 and rank No. 14 in Passing Yards Per Game (278.0) behind sensational 24-year-old QB Dillon Gabriel.
People chirp about Shedeur Sanders (Colorado), Cam Ward (Miami Florida), and Carson Beck (Georgia), but Gabriel (3,558 Passing yards, 28 TD, 6 Interceptions; 192 Rushing yards, 7 TD, 3.0 ypc) is as good, if not better than all three of those signal callers and whichever NFL team drafts him won’t regret it. Gabriel’s favorite targets are WRs Tez Johnson (866 Receiving yards, 10 TD, 11.1 ypc), Traeshon Holden (602 Receiving yards, 3 TD, 15.8 ypc), and Evan Stewart (613 Receiving yards, 5 TD, 12.8 ypc), and TE Terrance Ferguson (520 receiving yards, 3 TD, 13,7 ypc). RB Jordan James (1,253 Rushing yards, 15 TD, 5.5 ypc) is the Ducks main man in the backfield. Like Ohio State, Oregon has many weapons and these two have looked like the two best teams in FBS all season long.
Oregon Betting Trends
- Oregon is 35-5 SU in its last 40 games overall (87.5%)
- The Ducks have been Favorites in every game but OHIO ST (+3.5)
- Oregon has never lost a game in the Big Ten Conference (10-0)
- The Ducks’ last 5 losses have been to WASH 3x, ORE ST, GEORGIA
- Oregon is 6-2-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall
Ohio State vs Oregon Prediction
The ability to connect on long passes will be crucial for both teams here and with these QBs and WRs, I wouldn’t want to bet on the Under in this track meet. And the Weather in Pasadena, like always, will be beautiful (69°, 3 mph Winds) and have no effect on the play. So Howard will sling the pigskin to Smith, Egbuka, and Tate and Gabriel will find Johnson, Holden, and Stewart, and the scoreboard will light up like a Las Vegas slot machine. If you are worried that Gabriel may struggle against the No. 1 defense in the land, think again. Remember who has scored the most Points vs the Buckeyes and that they are vulnerable on long passes. Gabriel was 4-for-4 on Passes of over 20 yards downfield in the first meeting (177 yards) and he ranks No. 2 in FBS on Pass Attempts of 20+ yards (54.5%).
Despite the two decent defenses, this Ohio State vs Oregon NCAAF pick will suggest the Over with the Weather and Playing Surface non-factors, so many Skill guys, the fact there were 63 Points put up in the first meeting, and the do-or-die nature of the game all contributing to a high-scoring Pace. When Oregon scores, Ohio State will be able to respond, and although good, the Ducks defense didn’t really stop the Buckeyes before, and that game was at Home. Both teams should get 30 Points here (again) and this one will be fun to watch on so many levels. This Total opened up at 53.5 and has been bet up 2 points by Wiseguys as well as the public. You may want to get the 55.5 now before it ticks up any more before game time on Wednesday.