Notre Dame vs Georgia Prediction
| What: | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl |
| When: | Thursday, January 2, 2025 at 4:00 EST/1:00 PST |
| Where: | Caesars Superdome (Turf Nation S5), New Orleans, Louisiana |
| Notre Dame vs Georgia Line: | Georgia -1 |
| Total: | 43.5 |
| TV: | ESPN |
Notre Dame vs Georgia Preview
The final College Football Playoff Quarterfinals (CFP) game sees No. 7-seed Notre Dame (12-1) meet No. 2-seed Georgia (11-2, 6-2 in SEC) at the Caesars Superdome in the Allstate Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, Louisiana on Thursday afternoon (This game was moved up a day). The Fighting Irish’s lone loss came to Northern Illinois in one of the biggest upsets of the FBS season while Georgia’s 2 Losses were to then No. 4 Alabama and No. 16 Ole Miss, both on the Road in SEC Regular Season play. The winner of this Quarterfinal game will get the winner of Tuesday night’s Penn State-Boise State game in the CFP Semifinals in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Thursday, January 9 (ESPN, 7:30 EST/4:30 PST. Popular online sportsbook DraftKings has Georgia at +500 to win the CFP with Notre Dame at +600.
Notre Dame vs Georgia Prediction
In their last 5 games, the Fighting Irish are 5-0, beating Florida State by 49 (52-3), Virginia by 21 (35-14), Army by 35 (49-15), USC by 14 in Pasadena (49-35), and Indiana in the First Round of the CFP in South Bend last weekend by 10 (27-17). Notre Dame won those last 5 games by a robust average of 25.8 ppg. In their last 5 games, the Bulldogs are 4-1, losing at Mississippi by 18 (28-10), and then beating Tennessee by 14 (31-17), Massachusetts by 38 (59-21), rivals Georgia Tech by 2 in 8 OT in one of the best games of the season (44-43) followed by another OT win, this one over CFP Quarterfinalist Texas by 3 in the SEC Championship Game (22-19). This is the day your life will surely change.
Notre Dame On a Sexy 9-Game ATS Win Streak
Notre Dame (11-2-0 ATS, 7-6-0 O/U) has looked mighty good this year since losing to Northern Illinois at Home, and the Fighting Irish (-105 Moneyline) rolled Indiana last week to get to this point and find themselves as the slightest of Underdogs (+1 to +1.5) in the CFP Quarterfinals. In the process, Notre Dame has reeled off 9 straight ATS wins in a row and now boast the best ATS Record in FBS, tied with Arizona State and Marshall at 11-2 (84.6%). The Fighting Irish’s last ATS non-cover was to Miami Ohio on September 21—the first day of Fall—so ND went all Autumn without losing a game to the betting number.
The Fighting Irish are led by talented QB Riley Leonard (2,293 Passing yards, 17 TD, 6 Interceptions; 751 Rushing yards, 15 TD, 5.9 ypc), and like many of the new breed FBS QBs, this cat can throw and run the ball. RBs Jeremiyah Love (1,077 Rushing yards, 16 TD, 7.4 ypc) and Jadarian Price (683 Rushing yards, 7 TD, 6.8 ypc) give this team three threats running the football while WR Beaux Collins (445 Receiving yards, 2 TD) is the team’s top receiver. Notre Dame averages 39.8 ppg (#4), average 196.8 Passing yards per game (#101) and 222.4 Rushing yards (#11). The defense allows just 13.8 ppg (#3), so the three best Scoring defenses (#1 Ohio State, #2 Texas) are all still alive and kicking in the CFP.
Notre Dame Betting Trends
- Notre Dame has covered a mind-boggling 9 straight games ATS
- ND has won its last 8 games by 10, 14, 35, 21, 49, 37, 18, and 42
- The Over is 4-2-0 in the last 6 Notre Dame games
- The Fighting Irish are 0-3 lifetime vs Georgia
- ND is 6-0-0 ATS in their last 6 in the First Quarter (+6.00 Units, 27% ROI)
Georgia Without Starting QB Carson Beck Here
Georgia (4-9-0, 6-7-0 O/U) is always a tough team to face this time of year, but Notre Dame can take solace that QB Carson Beck (3,485 Passing yards, 28 TD, 12 Interceptions) is out and will miss this huge game with an Elbow Injury and announced last week that he is declaring for the 2025 NFL Draft. That means backup Gunner Stockton (206 Passing yards, TD) will be making his first start in a Bulldogs uniform. Many talk about how able Stockton is, but with no real experience and all of the pressure in the world on his shoulder pads, Georgia (-111 Moneyline) will need everyone around him to be at their very best.
That means guys like RBs Nate Frazier (634 Rushing yards, 8 TD, 4.9 ypc and Trevor Etienne (571 rushing yards, 9 TD, 5.1 ypc), WR Dillon Bell (106 Rushing yards, TD, 13.3 ypc) and WR Arian Smith (750 Receiving yards, 4 TD, 16.0 ypc) will all have to shine. The Bulldogs offense (34.4 ppg, #11) is impressive as is the defense (20.4 ppg, #20), but this team has allowed 40+ points twice (Alabama, Georgia Tech) and 30+ one time (Mississippi State). Notre Dame is no slouch and the Site won’t help the Dawgs as much as they would like, although there should be way more Georgia fans at the Sugar Bowl in the Big Easy. Fans have scored 0 Points so far in the history of College Football.
Georgia Betting Trends
- Georgia is 3-7-0 ATS in its last 10 games
- The Over is 3-1-0 in the last 4 Georgia games, 4-2 the last 6
- Georgia is 3-0 SU/ATS vs 2024 CFP teams (Beat TEX 2x, TENN)
- The Bulldogs finished a perfect 8-0 SU at Home at Sanford Stadium
- Georgia is 9-2-0 on First Half Moneyline last 11 (+7.35 Units / 8% ROI)
Notre Dame vs Georgia Prediction
There should be lots of running in this game, with the Rush being Notre Dame’s forte and Georgia starting a QB for the first time ever and having two dudes who can carry the rock in Frazier and Etienne. And with two good defenses and so much at stake, suggesting the Over seems like a stretch and this one could be a chess-like slog on the indoor Turf Nation S5 surface. Still, the money has been on the Over (60%) and the opening Totals number has crept up 2 Points from 44.5 to 46.5 in some sportsbooks (BetMGM), although you can still find a 46 (DraftKings) and plenty of 45.5’s (FanDuel, Caesars, bet365), so if you want to try to Middle on a 46, you can (for now). Good luck with that, Bobby.
This Notre Dame vs Georgia NCAAF pick will side with Notre Dame for five main reasons: 1—The Fighting Irish are playing better football than Georgia and have been for longer; 2—Notre Dame has RB Jeremiyah Love, and he has been dynamite this season; 3—The Fighting Irish have the better (Scoring) defense (#3 in FBS vs #20); 4—Notre Dame has the better QB (Riley Leonard) and a guy who has started all year as opposed to a guy coming in and staring his first game ever (Gunner Stockton); 5—The Fighting Irish are No. 3 in the nation in Turnover Differential and average +1.2 TOs per game. It would be tempting to say that Notre Dame also has the better mascot until one remembers about Uga. Woof.
Kevin’s Pick: Notre Dame +1.5 (FanDuel)