Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets Prediction 1-5-25

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns Prediction 12/29/24 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns Prediction

Game Time: 4:05 PM EST
Miami Dolphins Line: -6.5
Cleveland Browns Line: 6.5
Total: 40.0
TV: CBS

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns Prediction.  On Sunday 12/29 the Miami Dolphins will take on the Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 51.7 °F with 8.3 mph wind and 70% chance of rain.  This game features a match-up of the AFC East vs AFC North.  The AFC East is the #6 ranked conference in the NFL with a 43.4% winning percentage while the AFC North is the #4 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 50%.  The 7-8 Dolphins are ranked #2 in the AFC East and the 3-12 Browns are ranked #4 in the AFC North.

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Dolphins defeated the 49ers 29 to 17 in which they allowed the 49ers to gain a total of 374 yards of offense. The Dolphins are currently 2 spots out of the wildcard position, so they have to win to keep any hopes alive.

Last week the Browns lost against the Bengals 6 to 24 while allowing the Bengals to gain 326 yards of total offense and having 2 more turnovers than the Bengals.  The Browns were pretty much eliminated when they started the season 1 – 7 and then got to “chalk it up” to another year to a  “learning lesson” about how a NFL franchise should not put all their eggs in one basket that comes with questionable character issues.  

What are the Dolphins coming into this game to accomplish?

Skill Position Impact 

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is ranked #21 for QB’s this week and he has completed 291 passes on 399 attempts and has averaged 260.6 yards per game with a completion percentage of 72.9% with 19 TD’s and 7 INT’s. However Tua is listed as questionable for this week’s game with a hip injury.

The Dolphins running back De’Von Achane is the #22 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 50.7 yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush attempt while scoring 5 TD’s and having 1 fumble. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 50.5% which is 0.5% more than the league average.

The Dolphins tight end #1 Jonnu Smith is the #15 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 5.1 receptions per game while averaging 10.6 yards per reception to go along with 6 TD’s and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 80% which is 12% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 66.3% is 17.7% more than the league average.

Wide receiver #1 for the Dolphins is Tyreek Hill is listed as questionable for this week’s game due to wrist injury.  Hill is ranked #24 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 4.7 receptions per game with a 11.9 yards per catch average to go along with 6 TD’s. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 63.1% which is 2.9% above league average 

The Dolphins have Jaylen Waddle listed as wide receiver 2 but he is also listed as questionable for this week due to knee injury.  Waddle is ranked as the #53 WR\TE’s this week and averages 3.9 receptions per game with a 13 yards per catch average with 2 TD’s. Advanced receiving stats show him as having a catch success rate of 73% which is 11.9% above league average.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Dolphins

The Dolphins offense has scored 305 points this season which is 11.1% less than the NFL average and have 17 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game. The Dolphins offensive per drive statistics show that 40.1% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 10.2% of drives end with a turnover. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Dolphins have scored 26 red zone TD’s on 46 red zone opportunities which is 7.2% lower and 5.8% lower than league averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Dolphins

The defense for Dolphins has allowed 329 points in 2024 which is 4.1% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 13 turnovers which is an average of 0.9 turnovers per game which is 25% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Dolphins is allowing 102.1 rush yards per game and 12 rushing TD’s. The Dolphins pass defense is allowing 210.9 passing yards per game, 18 TD’s, and 8 INT’s.  A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Dolphins defense blitzes at 24% with a QB hurry rate of 9.1%, a QB knockdown rate of 7.6% and a QB pressure rate of 21.6%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Dolphins 

  • Dolphins S Jordan Poyer (knee/finger) is questionable for Sunday’s battle against the Browns.
  • Dolphins CB Kendall Fuller (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Browns.
  • Dolphins LS Blake Ferguson (illness) will remain on the reserve/non-football injury list.
  • Dolphins LB Anthony Walker Jr. (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Browns, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.
  • Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game at Cleveland.
  • Dolphins WR Dee Eskridge is listed as questionable for this week’s game as of 2 days ago.  The latest update is Eskridge (knee) is questionable to play Sunday against Cleveland.
  • Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Browns after logging limited practices Thursday and Friday.

There are 20 players on the Dolphins injury report for this week, which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries.

Player Props:

  • J. Smith (TE) has gone over 46.5 receiving yards and over 4.5 receptions in the last 2 games.
  • T. Tagovailoa and the overs for 21.5 passing completions and 31.5 passing attempts which have occurred in each of his last 6 games.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • D. Achane (RB) is the #6 ranked fantasy RB this week and is projected for 16.1 fantasy points and is facing the 24th ranked defense for TDs surrendered to RBs.
  • T. Hill (WR) is projected for 13.0 fantasy points and is the #13 ranked fantasy WR this week. 

What are the Browns playing for against the Dolphins?

Skill Position Impact 

The Browns are starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson who has a record of 0-1 as starting quarterback this season.  He is ranked #49 on the QB Rankings for this week and has completed 35 passes on 68 attempts and has averaged 51.4 yards per game with a completion percentage of 51.5% with 0 TD’s and 5 INT’s. His QBR is 69.8% below the league.

The Browns running back Jerome Ford is the #44 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 41.8 yards per game and 5.5 yards per rush attempt to go along with 3 TD’s. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 48% which is 4.4% less than the league average.

The Browns tight end 1 David Njoku is the #32 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 5.8 receptions per game while averaging 7.9 yards per reception to go along with 5 TD’s.  UPDATE:  Now listed as out for this week’s game… insert backup TE.

For the Browns at wide receiver 1 is Cedric Tillman who is ranked #148 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 2.6 catches per game and 11.7 yards per reception to go with 3 TD’s and 1 fumble. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 59.2% which is 3.5% below league averages.  UPDATE:  Now listed as out for this week’s game… insert backup WR.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Browns

The offense for the Browns has scored 245 points so far this year which is 28.6% less than the NFL average and they have 30 turnovers on offense for an average of 2 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Browns show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 24.6% of their drives whereas 15% of drives end with a fumble or interception. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Browns have scored 17 red zone TD’s on 31 attempts which is 39.4% lower and 36.5% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Browns

The Browns defense has allowed 380 points so far this year which is 10.7% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 12 turnovers for an average of 0.8 turnovers per game which is 33.3% less than the rest of the league. The Browns rush defense is giving up 127.4 rush yards per game to go along with 19 rushing TD’s. The pass defense for the Browns is allowing 212.5 pass yards per game, 23 passing TD’s, and 4 INT’s. 

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Browns

  • Browns DE Ogbo Okoronkwo (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Dolphins, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
  • Browns QB Jameis Winston (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Dolphins, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
  • Browns WR Cedric Tillman (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Dolphins, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
  • Browns TE David Njoku (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Dolphins, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
  • Browns DT Shelby Harris is on Injured Reserve Thursday and will be out for the rest of the season.

The Browns have 20 players on their injury report which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week.

Player Props:

  • J. Ford has gone over 47.5 rushing yards in his last 2 games.
  • J. Ford has gone over 18.5 receiving yards in his last 4 games.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • J. Ford (RB) is the #14 ranked fantasy RB this week and is projected for 13.2 fantasy points and is facing the #1 ranked defense for fewest fantasy points given up to RBs.

Mindy’s Pick:  UNDER 40 @ -110

Overall team efficiency stats have the Dolphins at #20 while the Browns come in ranked dead last at #32 in this week’s rankings.  The Under in the Browns games are 9-6-0 and the under has come in 60% of the time.  This Browns team has only scored 13 points in the last 2 games.  The best bet for this match-up is the total Under 40.  My score projection for this game is 34.71 so this pick has a variance of 5.29 points.  

 

If You enjoyed this article, make sure you check out this Packers vs Vikings prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/28/green-bay-packers-vs-minnesota-vikings-prediction-12-29-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 33-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!