green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings prediction 12-29-24

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction 12/29/24 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction

Game Time: 4:25 PM EST
Green Bay Packers Line: -1.0
Minnesota Vikings Line: 1.0
Total: 49.0
TV: FOX

 

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction. On Sunday 12/29 the Green Bay Packers will take on the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota.  This game features a match-up of two NFC North teams.  The NFC North is the #1 ranked conference in the NFL with a 68.4% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 11-4 Packers are ranked #3 in the NFC North and the 13-2 Vikings are ranked #2.

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Packers defeated the Saints 34 to 0 in which they allowed the Saints to gain a total of 196 yards of offense. The Packers picked up the win by 34 while out gaining the Saints by 208 yards and having 2 fewer turnovers. The Packers have clinched a playoff spot and don’t have a lot of gain in this match-up when it comes getting into the playoffs but the Packers still have to prove that they can be the upper tier competition in the NFL.

Last week the Vikings came out with the victory against the Seahawks 27 to 24 while allowing the Seahawks to gain 361 yards of total offense and having 2 fewer turnovers than the Seahawks.  The Vikings have clinched a playoff spot but are tied for the division lead with the Lions.  

What are the Packers coming into this game to accomplish?

Skill Position Impact 

Packers QB Jordan Love is ranked #19 for QB’s this week and he has completed 242 passes on 383 attempts and has averaged 241.2 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.2% with 24 TD’s and 11 INT’s. His QBR is 13.9% above the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks and 2 game winning drives this season.

The Packers running back Josh Jacobs is the #4 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 81.1 yards per game and 4.4 yards per rush attempt while scoring 13 TD’s and having 3 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 51.1% which is 1.7% more than the league average.

The Packers tight end 1 is an emerging talent in Tucker Kraft who is the #78 ranked TE\WR this week and is averaging 2.9 receptions per game while averaging 14 yards per reception to go along with 7 TD’s and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his receiving success rate of 61.7% is 9.5% more than the league average for these statistics.

Wide receiver 1 for the Packers is Romeo Doubs who is ranked #97 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3.3 receptions per game with a 13.9 yards per catch average to go along with 4 TD’s and 0 fumbles on the season.   Then there is the Packers WR2, Jayden Reed, who is ranked as the #56 WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3.5 receptions per game with a 15.4 yards per catch average with 6 TD’s and 2 fumbles for the year.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Packers

The Packers offense has scored 413 points this season which is 20.3% more than the NFL average and have 16 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game. The Packers offensive per drive statistics show that 46.5% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 9.4% of drives end with a turnover. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Packers have scored 37 red zone TD’s on 62 red zone opportunities which is 32% higher and 26.9% higher than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Packers

The defense for Packers has allowed 287 points in 2024 which is 16.4% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 28 turnovers which is an average of 1.9 turnovers per game which is 58.3% more than the league average. The rush defense for the Packers is allowing 102.5 rush yards per game and 12 rushing TD’s. The Packers pass defense is allowing 209.7 passing yards per game, 19 TD’s, and 15 INT’s.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Packers 

  • Packers OT Andre Dillard (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday’s matchup against Minnesota, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers’ official site reports.
  • Packers S Javon Bullard (ankle) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Vikings, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers’ official site reports.
  • Packers WR Christian Watson (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s contest at Minnesota, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers’ official site reports.
  • Packers S Evan Williams (quadriceps) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Vikings, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers’ official site reports.
  • Packers CB Jaire Alexander (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Vikings, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers’ official site reports.
  • Packers LB Quay Walker (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Vikings, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers’ official site reports.
  • Ty’Ron Hopper is listed as Questionable for this week’s game

There are 11 players on the Packers injury report for this week which is 32.1% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries and is 24.7% more than the Vikings.

Player Props:

  • J. Love has gone under 2.5 rushing attempts and 6.5 rushing yards in both of his last 2 games.
  • J. Love and the under for 21.5 passing completions and 32.5 passing attempts which have occurred in each of his last 6 games.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • J. Jacobs (RB) has gone over 16 fantasy points in his last 6 straight games.
  • J. Jacobs (RB) is projected for 18.1 fantasy points and is the #2 ranked fantasy RB this week. 

What are the Vikings goals for defeating the Packers?

Skill Position Impact 

Vikings QB Sam Darnold is ranked #6 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 310 passes on 461 attempts and has averaged 251.7 yards per game with a completion percentage of 67.2% with 32 TD’s and 11 INT’s. His QBR is 4.2% above the league average and he has 3 fourth quarter comebacks and 5 game winning drives this season.

The Vikings running back Aaron Jones Sr. is the #10 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 69.7 yards per game and 4.5 yards per rush attempt to go along with 5 TD’s and 5 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 49.8% which is 0.9% less than the league average.

The Vikings tight end 1 T.J. Hockenson is the #121 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 4.3 receptions per game while averaging 11.1 yards per reception. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 70.8% which is 0.9% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 58.3% is 3.5% more than the league average for these statistics.

For the Vikings at wide receiver 1 is top tier WR Justin Jefferson who is ranked #7 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 6.1 catches per game and 15.1 yards per reception to go with 10 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 68.7% which is 12% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 57.5% which is 13% more than the wide receiver league averages.

At wide receiver 2 the Vikings have Jordan Addison.  He is ranked at #46 on the WR\TE’s ranks this week and averages 4.3 receptions per game and 14.4 yards per reception with season totals of 8 TD’s. He has a receiving success rate of 50.6% which is 3.3% less than the WR league averages in the advanced receiving metrics.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Vikings

The offense for the Vikings has scored 396 points so far this year which is 15.4% more than the NFL average and they have 20 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.3 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Vikings show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 42% of their drives whereas 11.2% of drives end with a fumble or interception. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Vikings have scored 32 red zone TD’s on 53 attempts which is 14.2% higher and 8.5% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Vikings

The Vikings defense has allowed 276 points so far this year which is 19.6% less than the league average for points allowed while creating 30 turnovers for an average of 2 turnovers per game which is 66.7% more than the rest of the league. The Vikings rush defense is giving up 87.1 rush yards per game to go along with 7 rushing TD’s. The pass defense for the Vikings is allowing 248.7 pass yards per game, 22 passing TD’s, and 22 INT’s.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Vikings

  • Vikings LB Ivan Pace Jr. (hamstring), who is still on IR, is questionable to suit up against the Packers on Sunday.
  • Vikings CB Fabian Moreau (hip) has been ruled out for Sunday’s matchup against the Packers.

The Vikings have 7 players on their injury report which is 56.8% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 24.7% less than the Packers.

Player Props:

  • J. Jefferson has gone over 6.5 receptions in his last 4 games.
  • J. Addison has gone over 4.5 receptions in his last 3 games.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • J. Jefferson has gone over 18 fantasy points in the last 3 consecutive games.
  • J. Addison has gone over 12 fantasy points in the last 3 consecutive games.

Mindy’s Pick:  OVER 49 @ -120

Overall team efficiency stats have the Packers ranked #5 while the Vikings come in ranked #2.  The Vikings defense is ranked 30th in pass attempts, 32nd in pass completions, and passing yards allowed to opposing teams.  The best pick for this match-up is on the total and is the Over 49 points.  My score projections for the total of this game is 55.95 so this pick has a variance of 6.95 points.  

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out this Falcons vs Commanders prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/28/atlanta-falcons-vs-washington-commanders-prediction-12-29-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 33-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!