Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Prediction 12-29-24

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Prediction 12/29/24 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Prediction

Game Time: 8:20 PM EST
Atlanta Falcons Line: 4.0
Washington Commanders Line: -4.0
Total: 48.0
TV: NBC

 

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Prediction. On Sunday 12/29 the Atlanta Falcons will take on the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 54.2 °F with 6.7 mph wind and 72% chance of rain.  This game features a match-up of the NFC South vs NFC East.  The NFC South is the #7 ranked conference in the NFL with a 41.7% winning percentage while the NFC East is the #3 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 51.7%.  The 8-7 Falcons are ranked #1 in the NFC South and the 10-5 Commanders are ranked #2 in the NFC East.

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Falcons defeated the dismal Giants 34 to 7 in which they allowed the Giants to gain a total of only 234 yards of offense and having 2 fewer turnovers. The Falcons are leading the NFC South but have the same record as the Buccaneers so they have to take care of business if they want to get into the playoffs.

Last week the Commanders came out with a nail-bitter of a victory against the Eagles 36 to 33 while allowing the Eagles to gain 338 yards of total offense. The Commanders won even while having 3 more turnovers than the Eagles.  The Commanders are currently in the 3rs wildcard spot but they need a win to clinch their spot.  

What weaknesses are the Falcons hoping to exploit against the Commanders?

Skill Position Impact 

Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. is 1-0 on the season and started off his QB career with a win last week.  Penix Jr. is ranked #50 for QB’s this week and he has completed 21 passes on 32 attempts and has averaged 80 yards per game with a completion percentage of 65.6% and does not have a TD but has 1 INT.  His QBR is 14.7% below the league average.

The Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is the #5 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 79.7 yards per game and 4.6 yards per rush attempt while scoring 10 TD’s. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 56.4% which is 12.3% more than the league average.

The Falcons tight end 1 Kyle Pitts is the #92 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 2.7 receptions per game while averaging 13.2 yards per reception to go along with 3 TD’s. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 62.1% which is 13.1% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 40.9% is 27.4% less than the league average.

Wide receiver 1 for the Falcons is Drake London who is ranked #11 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 5.5 receptions per game with a 11.8 yards per catch average to go along with 7 TD’s. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a receiving success rate of 58.3% which is 14.6% more than the league average for wide receivers.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Falcons

The Falcons offense has scored 327 points this season which is 4.7% less than the NFL average and have 22 turnovers which is an average of 1.5 turnovers per game. The Falcons offensive per drive statistics show that 38% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 14% of drives end with a turnover. The Falcons average 10 offensive drives per game and they average 6.5 plays, 35.5 yards, starting field position on their Own 28.9 yard line, and resulting in 1.97 points per drive. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Falcons have scored 22 red zone TDs on 45 red zone opportunities which is 21.5% lower and 7.9% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Falcons

The defense for Falcons has allowed 349 points in 2024 which is 1.7% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 17 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Falcons is allowing 112 rush yards per game and 7 rushing TD’s. The Falcons pass defense is allowing 223.4 passing yards per game, 28 TD’s, and 11 INT’s.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Falcons 

  • Falcons CB Antonio Hamilton Sr. (quadriceps) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Commanders, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons’ official site reports.
  • Falcons CB Kevin King (concussion) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Commanders, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons’ official site reports.

There are 13 players on the Falcons injury report for this week which is 19.7% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries.

Player Props:

  • B. Robinson has gone under 18.5 rushing attempts and 83.5 rushing yards in each of his last 4 games.
  • D. London (WR) has gone under 5.5 receptions in each of his last 3 games.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • R. McCloud (WR) has gone under 6.5 fantasy points in each of his last 2 games.
  • B. Robinson has ranked as the #3 RB in fantasy this week and is projected for 17.7 points.  Also, the Commanders defense is ranked #20 for fantasy points given up to RBs. 

What is next to accomplish on the Commanders list this year?

Skill Position Impact 

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is ranked #14 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 301 passes on 432 attempts and has averaged 220.2 yards per game with a completion percentage of 69.7% with 22 TD’s and 8 INT’s. His QBR is 20.8% above the league average and he has 3 fourth quarter comebacks and 3 game winning drives this season.

The Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. is the #24 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 60.8 yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush attempt to go along with 8 TD’s and 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 50.3% which is around the league average.

The Commanders tight end 1 Zach Ertz is the #49 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.7 receptions per game while averaging 9.8 yards per reception to go along with 4 TD’s and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 69.6% which is 2.6% below league average for tight ends.

For the Commanders at wide receiver 1 is Terry McLaurin who is ranked #17 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 4.9 catches per game and 14.1 yards per reception to go with 12 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 74.5% which is 21.4% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 63.3% which is 24.5% more than the wide receiver league averages.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Commanders

The offense for the Commanders has scored 432 points so far this year which is 25.9% more than the NFL average and they have 14 turnovers on offense for an average of 0.9 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Commanders show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 50.6% of their drives whereas 8.3% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Commanders offensive per drive averages are 10.4 drives per game with an average of 6.5 plays, 35.8 yards, starting field position on the Commanders Own 32.1 yard line, and average 2.72 points per drive. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Commanders have scored 38 red zone TD’s on 62 attempts which is 35.6% higher and 26.9% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Commanders

The Commanders defense has allowed 348 points so far this year which is 1.4% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 16 turnovers for an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the rest of the league. The Commanders rush defense is giving up 137.4 rush yards per game to go along with 15 rushing TD’s. The pass defense for the Commanders is allowing 185.5 pass yards per game, 24 passing TD’s, and 6 INT’s.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Commanders

  • Commanders G Andrew Wylie (groin) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons.
  • Commanders S Tyler Owens (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons.
  • Commanders LB Jordan Magee (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons.
  • Commanders RB Austin Ekeler is on Injured Reserve and will not play in this week’s but the latest update from Washington head coach Dan Quinn was that it’s absolutely possible for Ekeler (concussion) could return from injured reserve before the season ends, John Keim of ESPN.com.
  • Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons.
  • Marcus Mariota is listed as Questionable for this week’s game.
  • Commanders WR Dyami Brown (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Falcons.

The Commanders have 13 players on their injury report which is 19.7% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week.

Player Props:

  • J. Jefferson has gone over 6.5 receptions in his last 4 games.
  • J. Addison has gone over 4.5 receptions in his last 3 games.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • J. Daniels (QB) has gone over 21 fantasy points in each of his last 4 games.
  • T. McLaurin (WR) has gone over 14 fantasy points in each of his last 4 games.

Mindy’s Pick:  Commanders Moneyline @ -210

Overall comparison of the offenses in this match-up shows that the Commanders are better in 17 of 26 offensive statistics compared to the Falcons offense.  The Falcons are ranked #17 while the Commanders come in ranked #9.  As the underdog, the Falcons are 1-3-0 on the Moneyline for the season and cover at only a 25% rate with a MOV of -14.3 points.  As the favorite, the Commanders are 7-2-0 on the Moneyline for the year and cover at an unbelievable 77.8% with a MOV of 8.9 points.  The pick for this match-up is the Commanders on the Moneyline at -210 with a projected score of Falcons 20.39 and the Commanders 27.13.  

It’s -210, but it’s my best play, so you may want to just put this with your other favorite big moneyline play on the day.

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out my Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/28/detroit-lions-vs-san-francisco-49ers-prediction-12-30-24-nfl-pick/

 

Iowa vs Missouri Bowl Game Prediction: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/25/iowa-vs-missouri-prediction-12-30-24/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 33-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!