Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction 12-29-2024

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction 12/29/24 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Tennessee Titans Line: 1.0
Jacksonville Jaguars Line: -1.0
Total: 40.0
TV: CBS

 

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction. On Sunday 12/29 the Tennessee Titans will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida. The forecast for Sunday is for a nice temp of 72.6 °F with 10.7 mph wind and 36% chance of rain. This game features a match-up of two AFC South teams.  The AFC South is the #8 ranked conference in the NFL with a 36.7% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 3-12 Titans are ranked #4 in the AFC South and the 3-12 Jaguars are ranked #3.

 

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Titans lost against the Colts 30 to 38 in which they allowed the Colts to gain a whole lot of yards, to the tune of 458 yards of total offense. The Titans were outscored by 8 while being out gained by the Colts by 151 yards and having 2 more turnovers.  The Titans are currently ranked 10th in the playoff wildcard list, and in case you don’t know, only the top 3 make the playoffs.  Not this year Titans!

Last week the Jaguars lost against the lowly Raiders 14 to 19 while allowing the Raiders to gain 314 yards of total offense and had 2 more turnovers than the Raiders.  The Jaguars are listed as 9th in the wildcard playoff format that only takes 3 teams.  Do NOT pass GO!  Do NOT collect $200!

What are the Titans looking to build on in this week’s game?

Skill Position Impact 

Titans QB this week is again Mason Rudolph who is 1-3 as starting quarterback this season.  He is ranked #35 for QB’s this week.  Rudolph has completed 120 passes on 188 attempts and has averaged 211.2 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.8% with 8 TD’s and 8 INT’s. His QBR is 8.6% below the league average.

The Titans running back Tony Pollard is the #8 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 67.8 yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush attempt while scoring 5 TD’s and having 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 47.9% which is 4.6% less than the league average.

The Titans tight end 1 Chig Okonkwo is the #72 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.1 receptions per game while averaging 9.3 yards per reception to go along with 2 TD’s and 2 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 74.6% which is 4.4% above league average for tight ends.

Wide receiver 1 for the Titans is Calvin Ridley who is ranked #47 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3.7 receptions per game with a 15.3 yards per catch average to go along with 4 TD’s and 1 fumble. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a receiving success rate of 42.2% which is 17% less than the league average for wide receivers in this statistical category.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Titans

The Titans offense has scored 284 points this season which is 17.2% less than the NFL average and have 32 turnovers which is an average of 2.1 turnovers per game. The Titans offensive per drive statistics show that 30.1% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 17.3% of drives end with a turnover. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Titans have scored 23 red zone TD’s on 41 red zone opportunities which is 17.9% lower and 16.1% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Titans

The defense for Titans has allowed 417 points in 2024 which is 21.5% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 17 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Titans is allowing 129.9 rush yards per game and 20 rushing TD’s. The Titans pass defense is allowing 178.3 passing yards per game, 24 TD’s, and 11 INT’s.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Titans 

  • Titans WR Bryce Oliver (knee) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Jaguars.
  • Titans RB Tony Pollard (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against Jacksonville, Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com reports.
  • Titans LB Kenneth Murray Jr. was placed on Injured Reserve Wednesday, Jim Wyatt of the team’s official site reports.
  • Titans PK Nick Folk (abdomen) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Jaguars, Turron Davenport of ESPN.com reports.
  • Titans OT Dillon Radunz (shoulder) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Texans, Turron Davenport of ESPN.com reports.
  • Titans S Amani Hooker (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Jaguars, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.
  • Titans WR Tyler Boyd (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Jaguars despite being listed as a non-participant again in practice Friday, Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com reports.

There are 20 players on the Titans injury report for this week which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries and is 49.4% more than the Jaguars.

Player Props:

  • C. Okonkwo has gone over 36.5 receiving yards and over 4.5 receptions in the last 2 games.
  • M. Rudolph and the overs:
    • Over .5 INTs in his last 5 games he has started
    • Over 219.5 passing yards in last 3 games
    • Over 3.5 rushing attempts in last 3 games
    • Over 1.5 passing TDs in last 2 games

Fantasy Highlight:

  • M. Rudolph has gone over 15 fantasy points in his last 3 games.
  • C. Okonkwo (TE) has gone over 9.5 fantasy points in his last 2 games. 

What are the Jaguars goals for this game against the Titans?

Skill Position Impact 

Jaguars QB is Mac Jones, who has a record of 1-4 as starting quarterback this season and ranked #34 on the QB Rankings for this week.  Jones has completed 136 passes on 208 attempts and has averaged 159.1 yards per game with a completion percentage of 65.4% with 5 TD’s and 7 INT’s. His QBR is 39.7% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comeback and 1 game winning drive this season.

The Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby is the #31 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 49.6 yards per game and 4.9 yards per rush attempt to go along with 6 TD’s and 4 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 48.3% which is 3.8% less than the league average.

For the Jaguars at wide receiver #1 is Brian Thomas Jr. who is ranked #20 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 4.9 catches per game and 14.9 yards per reception to go with 9 TD’s. The advanced receiving stats show he has a receiving success rate of 56.3% which is 10.7% more than the wide receiver league averages.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Jaguars

The offense for the Jaguars has scored 277 points so far this year which is 19.3% less than the NFL average and they have 23 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.5 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Jaguars show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 32.1% of their drives whereas 14.1% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Jaguars offensive per drive averages are 10.4 drives per game with an average of 5.7 plays, 29.4 yards, starting field position on the Jaguars Own 27.5-yard line.

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Jaguars have scored 25 red zone TD’s on 45 attempts which is 10.8% lower and 7.9% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Jaguars

The Jaguars defense has allowed 396 points so far this year which is 15.4% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 8 turnovers for an average of 0.5 turnovers per game which is 58.3% less than the rest of the league. The Jaguars rush defense is giving up 127.9 rush yards per game to go along with 18 rushing TD’s. The pass defense for the Jaguars is allowing 263 pass yards per game, 27 passing TD’s, and 5 INT’s.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Jaguars

  • Jaguars LB Ventrell Miller (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Titans.
  • Jaguars S Darnell Savage (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Titans.
  • Yasir Abdullah is listed as Questionable for this week’s game.

The Jaguars have 12 players on their injury report which is 25.9% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 49.4% less than the Titans.

Player Props:

  • M. Jones has been over 20.5 pass completions and over 243.5 passing yards in his last 3 games.  He also has been over 32.5 passing attempts in his last 2 games as well.
  • B. Thomas Jr. has gone over 6.5 receptions in his last 3 games.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • B. Thomas Jr. (WR) has gone over 16.5 fantasy points in his last 4 games.

Mindy’s Pick: Jaguars Moneyline @ -120

Overall team efficiency stats have the Titans ranked #30 and the Jaguars come in ranked #26 in this week’s ranking list.  Analysis of overall, offense, defense, and special teams efficiencies show the Jaguars are better in 6 out of 8 efficiencies and rankings.  As the underdog, the Titans are 2-9-0 on the Moneyline for the season and cover at only 18.2% rate with a MOV of -10.3 points. The pick for this match-up is the Jaguars on the Moneyline at -120 with a projected score of Titans 17.56 and the Jaguars 18.43.  Close!

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out this Dolphins vs Cleveland prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/28/miami-dolphins-vs-cleveland-browns-prediction-12-29-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 33-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!