New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Prediction 12/29/24 NFL

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Prediction 12/29/24 NFL Pick

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New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
New York Jets Line: 9.0
Buffalo Bills Line: -9.0
Total: 46.5
TV: CBS

Hope you are ready for this most excellent New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Prediction!!!  On Sunday 12/29 the New York Jets will take on the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 51.7 °F with 8.9 mph wind and 68% chance of rain. This game features a match-up of two AFC East teams.  The AFC East is the #6 ranked conference in the NFL with a 43.4% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 4-11 Jets are ranked #3 in the AFC East and the 12-3 Bills are ranked #1.

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Jets lost against the Rams 9 to 19 in which they allowed the Rams to gain a total of 242 yards.  The Jets are just playing for their jobs, future employment opportunities, or bonuses since they were eliminated from the playoffs a while ago.  

Last week the Bills came out with the victory against the Patriots 24 to 21 while allowing the Patriots to gain 379 yards of total offense.  The Bills have clinched the AFC East division but with the Chiefs beating the Steelers, the Chiefs have locked in the #1 seed in the AFC.

What are the Jets playing for this week against the Bills?

Skill Position Impact 

The Jets QB Aaron Rodgers is ranked #10 for QB’s this week and for the season he has completed 333 passes on 530 attempts and has averaged 234.1 yards per game with a completion percentage of 62.8% with 24 TD’s and 8 INT’s. His QBR is 12.3% below the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks this season.

The Jets running back Breece Hall is the #20 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 55.3 yards per game and 4.1 yards per rush attempt while scoring 5 TD’s and having 6 fumbles.

Wide receiver #1 for the Jets is Davante Adams who is ranked #16 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 6.2 receptions per game with a 12.5 yards per catch average to go along with 7 TD’s. The Jets also have Garrett Wilson as wide receiver 2.  He is ranked as the #9 WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 6 receptions per game with a 11 yards per catch average with 6 TD’s and 1 fumble for the year. 

Overall Offense Analysis for the Jets

The Jets offense has scored 292 points this season which is 14.9% less than the NFL average and have 15 turnovers which is an average of 1 turnover per game. The Jets offensive per drive statistics show that 34.4% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 9.3% of drives end with a turnover. The Jets have scored 25 red zone TD’s on 48 red zone opportunities which is 10.8% lower and 1.7% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Jets

The defense for Jets has allowed 344 points in 2024 which is 0.2% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 13 turnovers which is an average of 0.9 turnovers per game which is 25% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Jets is allowing 121.8 rush yards per game and 19 rushing TD’s which is 19% lower and 32.8% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Jets pass defense is allowing 188.3 passing yards per game, 14 TD’s, and 5 INT’s which compared to league averages are 13.3% below, 35.8% below, 54.1% below league averages respectively for passing defense. 

A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Jets defense blitzes at 25.5% with a QB hurry rate of 9.8%, a QB knockdown rate of 7.2% and a QB pressure rate of 23.8%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Jets 

  • Jets CB Sauce Gardner is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Gardner (hamstring) was listed as a DNP on the injury report, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.
  • Jets S Tony Adams is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Adams (ankle) was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.
  • Jets CB Michael Carter II is listed as questionable for this week’s.
  • Jets WR Davante Adams is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Adams (hip) didn’t practice Thursday, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.
  • Jets PK Greg Zuerlein is still on Injured Reserve and will not play in this week’s game but the Jets opened Zuerlein’s (knee) 21-day practice window Thursday, per the NFL’s transaction log.
  • Jets DT Quinnen Williams is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Williams (hamstring) was a limited participant in the Jets’ practice report, per Rich Cimini of ESPN.
  • Jets OT Olu Fashanu is on Injured Reserve and will not play in this week’s game and the Jets placed Fashanu (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday, Ethan Greenberg of the team’s official site reports.

There are 20 players on the Jets injury report for this week which is 15.3% more than the NFL average of 17.34 injuries and is 69.2% more than the Bills.

Player Props:

  • Any and all Allen Lazard under props!! Lazard has gone under 20.5 receptions yards in 3 straight games and under 2.5 receptions in his last 3 games.
  • Garrett Wilson has gone over 49.5 receiving yards in 3 straight games.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • Aaron Rodgers is the #23 ranked fantasy QB this week and he is projected for 15.8 points.
  • Rodgers is facing the 10th toughest defense for fantasy points.  

What are the Bills looking to accomplish this week against the Jets?

Skill Position Impact 

Bill QB Josh Allen is ranked #9 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 291 passes on 456 attempts and has averaged 236.6 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.8% with 26 TD’s and 6 INT’s. His QBR is 28.8% above the league average and he has 2 game winning drives this season.

The Bills running back James Cook is the 23rd ranked RB this week and he is averaging 66.3 yards per game and 5.1 yards per rush attempt to go along with 14 TD’s and 1 fumble. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 52.2% which is 3.9% more than the league average.

The Bills tight end 1 Dalton Kincaid is the #86 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.5 receptions per game while averaging 10.1 yards per reception to go along with 2 TD’s and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 57.5% which is 19.5% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 52.1% is 7.5% less than the league average for these statistics.

For the Bills at wide receiver 1 is Amari Cooper who is ranked #94 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 3.2 catches per game and 12 yards per reception to go with 3 TD’s.  The Bills are also looking to continue building up their wide receiver 2, who is rookie Keon Coleman.  He is ranked at #169 on the WR\TE’s ranks this week and averages 2.2 receptions per game and 20.8 yards per reception with season totals of 3 TD’s. 

Overall Offense Analysis for the Bills

The offense for the Bills has scored 469 points so far this year which is 36.7% more than the NFL average and they have 8 turnovers on offense for an average of 0.5 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Bills show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 50.7% of their drives whereas 5.3% of drives end with a fumble or interception. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Bills have scored 43 red zone TD’s on 62 attempts which is 53.4% higher and 26.9% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Bills

The Bills defense has allowed 331 points so far this year which is 3.6% less than the league average for points allowed while creating 28 turnovers. The Bills rush defense is giving up 118.3 rush yards per game to go along with 12 rushing TD’s which is respectively 0.0102834036323075% higher and 0.160839160839161% higher (exactly!) than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Bills is allowing 229.5 pass yards per game, 25 passing TD’s, and 14 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 56% above, 14.6% above, 28.4% above league averages respectively for pass defense. 

The Bills advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 17.7%, QB hurry rate of 7.7%, QB knockdown rate of 9.8% and QB pressure rate of 22.6%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Bills

  • Bills WR Curtis Samuel is listed as questionable for this week’s and Samuel (rib) was limited at practice Thursday.
  • Bills LB Baylon Spector is on Injured Reserve and will not play in this week’s game and the Bills placed Spector (calf) on injured reserve Tuesday.

The Bills have 8 players on their injury report which is 53.9% less than the NFL average of 17.34 injuries for this week and is 69.2% less than the Jets.

Player Props:

  • Bills Wide Receivers and the under.  Both K. Shakir and A. Cooper have gone under their receiving yards props for the last 2 games.
  • Cook is cooking!!  James Cook has gone over for both receiving yards and rush yards in his last 2 games.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • James Cook has gone over 13.5 fantasy points in the last 5 games.
  • Dalton Kincaid has gone under 8 fantasy points in his last 3 consecutive games.

Mindy’s Pick: Jets +9.0 @ -110

Team efficiency stats have the Jets ranked #23 and the Bills #3 this week.  The Jets have efficiency advantages in exactly 0 out of 8 efficiencies.  And so naturally the pick is the Jets right!?! Or is it really the points?!?  The Bills are certainly the better team, but the Jets have a lot to prove (insert gray haired pictures of Aaron Rodgers here) even with the Jets being out of the playoffs, there is a must win feeling surrounding them.  Then on the other side of the ball, the Bills are in the coasting stage of the year.  So, the pick for this match-up is the Jets and more importantly the +9 after all the more desperate the team.

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out this prediction between the Raiders and Saints here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/27/las-vegas-raiders-vs-new-orleans-saints-prediction-12-29-24-nfl-pick/ 

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 33-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!