Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints Prediction
| Game Time: | 1:00 PM EST |
| Las Vegas Raiders Line: | -1.0 |
| New Orleans Saints Line: | 1.0 |
| Total: | 37.5 |
| TV: | FOX |
Another great Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints Prediction!!! Are you sure you want to read this??? On Sunday 12/29 the Las Vegas Raiders will take on the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. This game features a match-up of the AFC West vs NFC South. The AFC West is the #2 ranked conference in the NFL with a 58.3% winning percentage while the NFC South is the #7 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 41.7%. The 3-12 Raiders are ranked #4 in the AFC West and the 5-10 Saints are ranked #3 in the NFC South.
Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture
Last week the Raiders managed to defeat the Jaguars 19 to 14 in which they allowed the Jaguars to gain a total of 308 yards. Playoffs…playoffs…are we really talking about the playoffs!?! Oh right, I meant practice, and that’s as close to the playoffs as the Raiders are going to get. It’s practice and boy do they need it!
Last week the Saints lost against the Packers “0” to 34 while allowing the Packers to gain 404 yards of total offense. The Saints were outscored by 34 while being out gained by the Packers by 208 yards and having 2 more turnovers than the Packers.
What are goals for the Raiders this week against the Saints?
Skill Position Impact
Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell is ranked #37 for QB’s this week and he has completed just 110 passes on 174 attempts and has averaged 165.1 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.2% with 4 TD’s and 3 INT’s. Yes, you read that right, he ranks 37th out of 32 teams! LOL!!! His QBR is 33.6% below the league average.
The Raiders running back Alexander Mattison is the #38 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 30.7 yards per game and 3.2 yards per rush attempt while scoring 4 TD’s and having 1 fumble. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 36.2% which is 27.9% less than the league average.
The Raiders bright spot this year has been their rookie TE1 Brock Bowers is the #2 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 6.7 receptions per game while averaging 10.6 yards per reception to go along with 4 TD’s. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 73.7% which is 3.1% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 61.3% is 8.8% more than the league average.
On the other hand, wide receiver production has not been any kind of highlight this season for the Raiders and they have Terrace Marshall Jr. who is ranked #383 for WR\TE’s this week listed as WR1. He averages ONLY 0.4 receptions per game with a 6.5 yards per catch average to go along with 0 TD’s. Zero is noteworthy in this case!!! When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 50% which is 18.7% below league average for wide receivers.
Overall Offense Analysis for the Raiders
The Raiders offense has scored 264 points this season which is 23.1% less than the NFL average and have 28 turnovers which is an average of 1.9 turnovers per game. The Raiders offensive per drive statistics show that 31.2% of their drives end in a score while 16.5% of drives end with a turnover.
We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Raiders have scored 19 red zone TD’s on 39 red zone opportunities which is 32.2% lower and 20.2% lower than league averages respectively.
Overall Defense Analysis for the Raiders
The defense for Raiders has allowed 390 points in 2024 which is 13.6% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 11 turnovers which is 41.7% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Raiders is allowing 117.9 rush yards per game and 13 rushing TD’s which is 13.6% higher and 9.01% higher than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Raiders pass defense is allowing 210.1 passing yards per game, 26 TD’s, and 8 INT’s which compared to league averages are 33% below the norms.
A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Raiders defense blitzes at 28.4% with a QB hurry rate of 8.1%, a QB knockdown rate of 7.8% and a QB pressure rate of 21.3%.
Significant Injury Report Updates for the Raiders
- Raiders G Jordan Meredith is listed as Out for this week’s game and Meredith (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Saints, Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com reports.
There are 13 players on the Raiders injury report for this week which is 19.7% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries and is 30.9% less than the Saints.
Player Props:
- Aiden O’Connell has gone under 4.5 rush yards in 11 straight games.
- Alexander Mattison has gone under 44.5 rush yards in 5 consecutive games and under 12.5 rushing attempts in his last 3 games as well.
Fantasy Highlight:
- Aiden O’Connell has gone under 14.5 fantasy points in each of the last 2 games and is projected for 14.3 this week which is again under.
- J. Meyers has gone under 13.5 fantasy points in his last 2 games.
What is anyone left to play for the Saints this week?
Skill Position Impact
So, this story begins with who is not playing for the Saints when it comes to skill positions. Here is the list of impact players currently on Injured Reserve and out of the season:
- Derek Carr (QB1)
- Alvin Kamara (RB1)
- Chris Olave (WR1)
- Taysom Hill (TE1 & QB2 & RB2)
- Rashid Shaheed (WR2)
- Bub Means (WR4)
- And 5 offensive linemen
Questionable this week is:
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR3)
Out of the who is left after a zombie hoard cornered the team busses category, leaves the Saints at starting Spencer Rattler at QB who has a record of 0-4 as starter this season. Rattler is ranked #41 on the QB Rankings for this week and since only 32 QB’s start a week in the NFL being #41 is not so good! Rattler has completed just 84 passes on 150 attempts and has averaged 171.8 yards per game with a completion percentage of 56% with 2 TD’s and 3 INT’s. His QBR is 37.7% below the league averages for QB’s.
The Saints running back Kendre Miller is the #97 ranked RB this week (again remember the 32 starting RBs note) and he is averaging 29 yards per game and 4 yards per rush attempt with 1 TD.
For the Saints at wide receiver #1 is Kevin Austin Jr. who is ranked # “not in the top 500” WR/TE’s for this week in the NFL. He averages “0” catches per game and “0” yards per reception to go with “0” TD’s on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 0% which is 100% below league average combined with a receiving success rate of 0% which is 100% less than the wide receiver league averages.
At wide receiver 2 the Saints have Cedrick Wilson Jr. He is ranked at #230 on the WR\TE’s rankings this week and averages 1.1 receptions per game and 12.3 yards per reception with season totals of 1 TD’s and 1 fumble. He has a catch success rate of 77.8% which is 18.7% above league average and a receiving success rate of 50% which is 4.5% less than the WR league averages in the advanced receiving metrics.
For all you math fiends out there, here is what the Saints are bring to this game versus the Raiders:
- QB1 – 171.8 passing yards per game with 2TD’s & 3 INT’s
- RB1 – 29 rush yards per game with 1 TD
- TE1 – 1.7 receptions per game with 4TD’s
- WR1 – 0 receptions per game with 0TD’s
- WR2 – 1.1 receptions per game with 1TD
Ahh, OUCH!!!
Overall Offense Analysis for the Saints
Not much if any! See above for specifics or cross reference to last week’s game.
Overall Defense Analysis for the Saints
The Saints defense has allowed 346 points so far this year which is 0.8% more while creating 16 turnovers for an average of 1.1 turnovers per game. The Saints rush defense is giving up 137.9 rush yards per game to go along with 19 rushing TD’s which is respectively 15.3% lower and 32.8% lower than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Saints is allowing 240.5 pass yards per game, 15 passing TD’s, and 13 INT’s.
The Saints advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 19%, QB hurry rate of 9%, QB knockdown rate of 7.9% and QB pressure rate of 22.4%.
Significant Injury Report Updates for the Saints
- Saints WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling is listed as questionable for this week’s game due to a chest injury.
- Saints DT Nathan Shepherd is listed as questionable for this week’s game, but Shepherd (eye) was listed as a full participant in New Orleans’ practices.
The Saints have 18 players on their injury report with 10 on IR which is 11.2% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 30.9% more than the Raiders.
Player Props:
- Spencer Rattler and the under…UNDER .5 Passing TD’s for 3 consecutive weeks, UNDER 173.5 passing yards for 3 back-to-back-to back weeks, UNDER 18.5 Pass Completion for 2 straight weeks.
Fantasy Highlight:
- Don’t have any players from the Saints on your fantasy team!
- Ditto above comment!
Mindy’s Pick: UNDER 37.5 @ -110
Overall team efficiency stats have the Raiders ranked #28 while the Saints come in ranked #25 in this week’s ranking list. 37.5 points is 5 touchdowns and a field goal…with these stats they would have to play each other 3 times to get 5 touchdowns! UNDER!!
If you enjoyed this wonderful article, make sure you check out my selection of the Colts vs Giants here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/27/indianapolis-colts-vs-new-york-giants-prediction-12-29-24-nfl-pick/
About Mindy:
Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years. Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports. This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks. If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day. Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 33-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!! Let’s get some wins!