Indianapolis Colts vs New York Giants prediction 12/29/24

Indianapolis Colts vs New York Giants Prediction 12/29/24 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts vs New York Giants Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Indianapolis Colts Line: -7.5
N.Y. Giants Line: 7.5
Total: 40.5
TV: FOX

 

Welcome to the Indianapolis Colts vs New York Giants Prediction!  On Sunday 12/29 the Indianapolis Colts will take on the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 49.5 °F with 8.1 mph wind and 25% chance of rain.  This game features a match-up of the AFC South vs NFC East.  The AFC South is the #8 ranked conference in the NFL with a 36.7% winning percentage while the NFC East is the #3 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 51.7%.  The 7-8 Colts are ranked #2 in the AFC South and the 2-13 Giants are ranked #4 in the NFC East.

 

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Colts defeated the Titans 38 to 30 in which they allowed the Titans to gain a total of 307 yards of offense. The Colts made a good showing on offense and picked up the win by 8 while outgaining the Titans by 151 yards with 2 fewer turnovers than the Titans.  The Texans already won the division so there isn’t much hope.

Last week the Giants lost against the Falcons 7 to 34 while allowing the Falcons to gain 329 yards of total offense even with the Falcons starting rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. for the 1st time in an NFL game. The Giants were outscored by 27 while being outgained by the Falcons by 95 yards and having 2 more turnovers than the Falcons.  I’m pretty sure the Giants were eliminated from the playoffs on week 2!

What is the priority for the Colts this week against the Giants?

Skill Position Impact 

The Colts QB Anthony Richardson, who is listed as questionable for this week’s game due to back and foot issues, has a record of 6-5 as starter this season and is ranked #32 for QB’s this week.  He has completed 126 passes on 264 attempts and has averaged 164.9 yards per game with a completion percentage of 47.7% with 8 TD’s and 12 INT’s. His QBR is 20.7% below the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks and 3 game winning drives this season.  Richardson has a historically bad completion percentage at 47.7% and improving this will likely be a main part of this week’s game plan.

The Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has been on fire and is the #9 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 94.1 yards per game and 4.8 yards per rush attempt while scoring 8 TD’s and having 4 fumbles.

The Colts tight end 1 Mo Alie-Cox, who is also listed as questionable due to a toe injury, is the #234 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 0.8 receptions per game while averaging 12.3 yards per reception to go along with 1 TD’s. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 60% which is 16% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 60% is 6.5% more than the league average.

Wide receiver #1 for the Colts is Michael Pittman Jr. who is ranked #52 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3.9 receptions per game with a 11.6 yards per catch average to go along with 2 TD’s and 1 fumble.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Colts

The Colts offense has scored 318 points this season which is 7.3% less than the NFL average and have 26 turnovers which is an average of 1.7 turnovers per game. The Colts offensive per drive statistics show that 34.7% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 15.3% of drives end with a turnover. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Colts have scored 24 red zone TD’s on 44 red zone opportunities which is 14.4% lower and 9.9% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Colts

The defense for Colts has allowed 359 points in 2024 which is 4.6% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 24 turnovers which is an average of 1.6 turnovers per game which is 33.3% more than the league average. The rush defense for the Colts is allowing 136.5 rush yards per game and 16 rushing TD’s.  The Colts pass defense is allowing 225.6 passing yards per game, 22 TD’s, and 15 INT’s which compared to league averages are 3.8% above, .01% above, 37.6% above league averages respectively for passing defense. 

A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Colts defense blitzes at 18.4% with a QB hurry rate of 8.9%, a QB knockdown rate of 8.1% and a QB pressure rate of 22.5%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Colts 

  • Colts LB E.J. Speed is listed as Questionable for this weeks against the Giants.
  • Quenton Nelson is listed as Questionable for this week’s game.
  • Colts TE Mo Alie-Cox is listed as Questionable for this week’s game against the Giants.
  • Colts QB Anthony Richardson is listed as Questionable for this week’s game and Richardson (back/foot) status is still unknown.
  • Jaylon Carlies is listed as Questionable for this week’s game.

There are 15 players on the Colts injury report for this week which is 7.4% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries and is 30.9% less than the Giants.

Player Props:

  • Jonathan Taylor has gone under 6.5 receiving yards in 5 straight games.
  • A. Richardson has gone over 46.5 rush yards in 4 consecutive games… and he has gone over .5 INTs in his last 3 games.  He is the epitome + and – quarterback.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • Anthony Richardson is projected for 18.3 fantasy points which is always helped out by the 5-12 points from rushing yards and TDs.
  • Jonathan Taylor is projected for 14.3 fantasy points but is facing the #29 defense in giving up fantasy points to running backs.  

What are the Giants going to play for over these last 2 games of the season?

Skill Position Impact 

The Giants will go with Drew Lock at QB this week who has a record of 0-3 as the starter this season.  Lock is ranked #43 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 68 passes on 129 attempts and has averaged 104 yards per game with a completion percentage of 52.7% with 1 TD’s and 4 INT’s. His QBR is a mere 45.1% below the league average.

The Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. is doing his best with his opportunity but running for the Giants is “having to walk uphill both ways to grandma’s house in the mud”.  He is the #27 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 48.1 yards per game and 4.6 yards per rush attempt to go along with 5 TD’s and 4 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 48.7% which is 3% less than the league average.

For the Giants at wide receiver #1 is Malik Nabers, who is listed as questionable for this week’s game due to a toe injury and is expected to play.  The Giants need him to play.  Nabers is ranked #5 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 7.5 catches per game and 10 yards per reception to go with 4 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. 

Overall Offense Analysis for the Giants

The offense for the Giants has scored 215 points so far this year which is 37.4% less than the NFL average and they have 22 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.5 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Giants show they score on 25.9% of their drives whereas 13% of drives end with a turnover. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Giants have scored 17 red zone TD’s on 40 attempts which is 39.4% lower and 18.1% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Giants

If you were looking for the Giants defense to make up for the offense, try another option such as the ol’power outage trick.  The Giants defense has allowed 362 points so far this year which is 5.5% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 12 turnovers for an average of 0.8 turnovers per game which is 33.3% less than the rest of the league. The Giants rush defense is giving up 142.6 rush yards per game to go along with 16 rushing TD’s.  The pass defense for the Giants is allowing 200.5 pass yards per game, 19 passing TD’s, and 3 INT’s.

 The Giants advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 27.5%, QB hurry rate of 7.5%, QB knockdown rate of 8.3% and QB pressure rate of 23.4%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Saints

  • Giants WR Malik Nabers is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Nabers (toe) is expected to play, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
  • Giants DT Armon Watts is on Injured Reserve and will not play in this week’s game but the Giants designated Watts (shoulder) to return from injured reserve Tuesday, Patricia Traina of SI.com reports.
  • Giants CB Greg Stroman Jr. is listed as Out for this week’s game against the Colts, Ralph Vacchiano of Fox Sports reports.
  • Giants C John Michael Schmitz Jr. is listed as Out for this week’s game against the Colts, Ralph Vacchiano of Fox Sports reports.
  • Giants S Raheem Layne is listed as Out for this week’s game against the Colts, Ralph Vacchiano of Fox Sports reports.
  • Giants LB Micah McFadden is listed as Out for this week’s against the Colts, Ralph Vacchiano of Fox Sports reports.
  • Dee Williams is listed as Questionable for this week’s game

The Giants have more than 20 players on their injury report which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 30.9% more than the Colts.

Player Props:

  • Malik Nabers has gone over 67.5 receiving yards 4 weeks in a row.
  • Drew Lock has gone over for 4 straight weeks for passing props with over 20.5 completions and over .5 INTs.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • Hopefully the only people reading this have Malik Nabers!  If you do, he is projected for 11.5 fantasy points and they will keep feeding him the ball.  Just watch the injury report.
  • Ditto the above comment!

Mindy’s Pick: UNDER 40.5 @ -110

Both these quarterbacks combined average 268 passing yards per game, 9 TDs in 16 games for an average of .52 TDs per game.  They have thrown 14 INTs in the same 16 games with an average of .875 INTs per game.  So, unless they each figure out how to score a half a touchdown this might be another 6 – 3 final score, like the Seahawks and Bears game Thursday.  Take the UNDER!!

 

If you enjoyed this article, please check out this Eagles vs Cowboys prediction here:  https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/27/dallas-cowboys-vs-philadelphia-eagles-prediction-12-29-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 33-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!