Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles prediction 12/29/24 NFL

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction 12/29/24 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Dallas Cowboys Line: 7.0
Philadelphia Eagles Line: -7.0
Total: 38.5
TV: FOX

Hope you are excited for this Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction!!!  On Sunday 12/29 the Dallas Cowboys will take on the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 54.6 °F with 6.3 mph wind and 30% chance of rain. This game features a match-up of two NFC East teams.  The NFC East is the #3 ranked conference in the NFL with a 51.7% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 7-8 Cowboys are ranked #3 in the NFC East and the 12-3 Eagles are ranked #1.

 

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Cowboys upset the Buccaneers 26 to 24 in which they allowed the Buccaneers to gain a total of 410 yards of offense, which is 93 yards more than the Cowboys had on offense, but the Buccaneers had 2 more turnovers.  The Cowboys have already scheduled every player paid more than 3.5 million a year, for any and all 100,000 mile tune-up procedures needed to be ready for next year!

Last week the Eagles lost against the Commanders 33 to 36 while allowing the Commanders to gain 368 yards of total offense but more concerning is they lost Jalen Hurts to a concussion.  The #1 one seed and the all-important BYE is still up for grabs in the NFC so the Eagles need to keep winning to stay in that race.

What are we going to see from the Cowboys this week against the Eagles?

Skill Position Impact 

Cowboys QB Cooper Rush is 4-3 as starting quarterback this season and is ranked #33 for QB’s this week and he has completed 172 passes on 280 attempts.  He has averaged 154.3 yards per game with a completion percentage of 61.4% with 11 TD’s and 3 INT’s. His QBR is 31.5% below the league average.

The Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle is the #19 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 64.5 yards per game and 4.8 yards per rush attempt while scoring 1 TD’s and having 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 55.3% which is 10.1% more than the league average.

Wide receiver #1 for the Cowboys is Jalen Tolbert, also questionable this week due to injury, is ranked #87 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 2.8 receptions per game with a 11.5 yards per catch average to go along with 6 TD’s. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 60.9% which is 0.7% below league average and a receiving success rate of 49.3% which is 3.1% less than the league average for wide receivers in this statistical category.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Cowboys

The Cowboys offense has scored 324 points this season which is 5.6% less than the NFL average and have 24 turnovers which is an average of 1.6 turnovers per game. The Cowboys offensive per drive statistics show that 37.3% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 13.6% of drives end with a turnover. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Cowboys have scored 21 red zone TD’s on 42 red zone opportunities which is 25.1% lower and 14% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Cowboys

The Cowboys defense has allowed 404 points in 2024 which is 17.7% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 21 turnovers.  The rush defense for the Cowboys is allowing 135.9 rush yards per game and 23 rushing TD’s which is 13.7% lower and 60.8% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Cowboys pass defense is allowing 223.7 passing yards per game, 23 TD’s, and 13 INT’s.

A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Cowboys defense blitzes at 29% with a QB hurry rate of 10%, a QB knockdown rate of 12.2% and a QB pressure rate of 29%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Cowboys 

  • Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb is listed as Out for this week’s game and the Cowboys announced Thursday that Lamb will be sidelined for the final two games of the season but isn’t expected to require surgery to address the AC joint sprain in his right shoulder, Jane Slater of NFL Network reports.
  • Cowboys G T.J. Bass (thigh) is listed as doubtful ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Eagles, Clarence E. Hill Jr. of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.
  • Cowboys WR Jalen Tolbert (finger) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s contest at Philadelphia, Clarence E. Hill Jr. of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.
  • Cowboys WR Jalen Brooks (knee) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Eagles, Todd Archer of ESPN.com reports.
  • Cowboys LB Nick Vigil (foot) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Eagles, Clarence E. Hill Jr. of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.
  • Cowboys CB Amani Oruwariye (foot) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Eagles, Clarence E. Hill Jr. of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.
  • Cowboys S Donovan Wilson (knee) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Eagles, Clarence E. Hill Jr. of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.

There are 20 players on the Cowboys injury report for this week which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries and is 55.6% more than the Eagles.

Player Props:

  • B. Cooks has been under 3.5 receptions 7 straight games.
  • Cooper Rush has been over .5 Pass TDs in 6 consecutive games and over 187.5 pass yards in back-to-back games.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • Rico Dowdle is projected for 12.6 fantasy points, and he is the #15 fantasy RB this week.
  • Cooper Rush is projected for 13.8 fantasy points, and he is the #32 ranked fantasy QB this week and he is facing the Eagles defense that is ranked #7 against fantasy QB points allowed.  And did I mention Rush will no longer have CeeDee Lamb. 

 

What are the Eagles looking to accomplish in these last 2 games of the season?

Skill Position Impact 

Eagles QB Kenny Pickett is ranked #55 on the QB Rankings but he has a much better supporting cast around him at the Eagles compared to when he played for the Steelers.  He has completed 15 passes on 27 attempts and has averaged 37 yards per game with a completion percentage of 55.6% with 1 TD’s and 1 INT’s. His QBR is 7.4% below the league average.

The Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is the #1 ranked RB this week and he is taking a run at history in these last couple weeks of the season.  Barkley is averaging 122.5 yards per game and 5.9 yards per rush attempt to go along with 13 TD’s and 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 52.9% which is 5.3% more than the league average.

For the Eagles at wide receiver #1 is A.J. Brown who is ranked #31 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 5.3 catches per game and 16.3 yards per reception to go with 6 TD’s. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 69.6% which is 13.5% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 64.1% which is 26% more than the wide receiver league averages.

At wide receiver 2 the Eagles have DeVonta Smith.  He is ranked at #36 on the WR\TE’s ranks this week and averages 5.2 receptions per game and 11.5 yards per reception with season totals of 6 TD’s and 0 fumbles. He has a catch success rate of 75.6% which is 15.9% above league average and a receiving success rate of 59.8% which is 14.3% more than the WR league averages in the advanced receiving metrics. 

Overall Offense Analysis for the Eagles

The offense for the Eagles has scored 402 points so far this year which is 17.1% more than the NFL average and they have 15 turnovers on offense for an average of 1 turnover per game. The offense per drive stats for the Eagles show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 43.8% of their drives whereas 7.4% of drives end with a fumble or interception. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Eagles have scored 34 red zone TD’s on 59 attempts which is 21.3% higher and 20.8% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Eagles

The Eagles defense has allowed 283 points so far this year which is 17.5% less than the league average for points allowed while creating 21 turnovers for an average of 1.4 turnovers per game which is 16.7% more than the rest of the league. The Eagles rush defense is giving up 102.9 rush yards per game to go along with 9 rushing TD’s.  The pass defense for the Eagles is allowing 178.8 pass yards per game, 20 passing TD’s, and 10 INT’s.  

The Eagles advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 17.9%, QB hurry rate of 4.3%, QB knockdown rate of 8.3% and QB pressure rate of 19.1%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Eagles

  • Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (concussion/left finger) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Cowboys.
  • Eagles LB Nakobe Dean (abdomen) is doubtful to suit up against the Cowboys on Sunday.
  • Eagles RB Will Shipley (concussion) won’t play Sunday against the Cowboys.
  • Eagles WR Britain Covey (neck) has been ruled out for Sunday’s contest against the Cowboys.

The Eagles have 11 players on their injury report which is 32.1% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 55.6% less than the Cowboys.

Player Props:

  • How about some Pickett unders!?!  Pickett has gone under 1.5 passing TDs in 9 straight games and under .5 INTs in 8 consecutive games.
  • AJ Brown has gone over 65.5 receiving yards in 2 consecutive games.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • Saquon Barkley is projected for 16.9 fantasy points this week and is facing the #31 ranked defense in allowing fantasy points to a RB.  Sky’s the limit!!  No Hurts = More Saquon!  No Cowboys Run Defense = More Saquon!
  • AJ Brown is projected for 13.7 fantasy points, and he does have Kenny Pickett as QB but they connected on a big TD last week so we could see a lot more of that against a struggling Cowboy defense.

Mindy’s Pick: Cowboys +7.5 @ -110

No CeeDee Lamb, No Dak Prescott, No Jalen Hurts, and No Jason Kelce…what is this world coming to?  Well this game will still feature the Eagles best ever early Christmas present from the New York Giants called Saquon Barkley going against a Cowboys’ team who has scored 28 points per game over the last 2.  The Eagles have the advantages, but this is a rivalry game and Cowboys will be motivated to play spoiler against the Eagles enough to keep this game close.  Take the points!  The pick is the Cowboys at +7.5 with -110 odds.

 

If you loved this article, make sure you check out this Panthers vs Buccaneers prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/27/carolina-panthers-vs-tampa-bay-buccaneers-prediction-12-29-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 33-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!