New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction 1/5/25 NFL

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction 12/29/24 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Carolina Panthers Line: 8.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Line: -8.0
Total: 49.0
TV: CBS

 

Are you ready for some football?  Here is your Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction.  On Sunday 12/29 the Carolina Panthers will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 75.5 °F with 8.1 mph wind and 30% chance of rain. This game features a match-up of two NFC South teams.  The NFC South is the #7 ranked conference in the NFL with a 41.7% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 4-11 Panthers are ranked #4 in the NFC South and the 8-7 Buccaneers are ranked #2.

 

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Panthers defeated the Cardinals 36 to 30 in which they allowed the Cardinals to gain a total of 382 yards of offense while securing 2 more turnovers than the Cardinals.  The Panthers have turned the season around a bit here at the end, but there wasn’t much of a conversation about playoffs for the Panthers this year anyway.

Last week the Buccaneers suffered a disappointing loss to the Cowboys 24 to 26, while allowing the Cowboys to gain 317 yards of total offense.  Tampa Bay is in a tight race with the Falcons so every game is a must win if they want to make the playoffs.

What do the Panthers bring into this weeks’ game against the Bucs?

Skill Position Impact 

Panthers QB is Bryce Young who is 3-7 as the starter this season but is ranked #30 for QB’s this week.  Young has completed 194 passes on 322 attempts and has averaged 162.4 yards per game with a completion percentage of 60.2% with 10 TD’s and 9 INT’s. His QBR is 20.9% below the league average.

The Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard is managing to have a nice season for a RB and is the #6 ranked RB this week.  Hubbard is averaging 79.7 yards per game and 4.8 yards per rush attempt while scoring 10 TD’s and 4 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 54.8% which is 9.1% more than the league average.

Wide receiver #1 for the Panthers is Xavier Legette who is ranked #91 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 2.9 receptions per game with a 10.7 yards per catch average to go along with 4 TD’s. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 58.6% which is 4.5% below league average and a receiving success rate of 42.9% which is 15.7% less than the league average for wide receivers.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Panthers

The Panthers offense has scored 283 points this season which is 17.5% less than the NFL average and have 22 turnovers which is an average of 1.5 turnovers per game. The Panthers offensive per drive statistics show that 32.1% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 13.3% of drives end with a turnover. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Panthers have scored 25 red zone TD’s on 43 red zone opportunities which is 10.8% lower and 12% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Panthers

The defense for Panthers has allowed 448 points in 2024 which is 30.5% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 16 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Panthers is allowing 175.2 rush yards per game and 21 rushing TD’s which is 46.6% lower and 46.9% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Panthers pass defense is allowing 210.7 passing yards per game, 28 TD’s, and 8 INT’s.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Panthers 

  • Panthers LB D.J. Wonnum (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bucs.
  • Panthers CB Chau Smith-Wade (illness) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bucs.
  • Panthers WR Xavier Legette (hip/wrist) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s contest at Tampa Bay.
  • Taylor Moton – Doubtful.
  • Panthers DE A’Shawn Robinson (knee/illness) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bucs.
  • Panthers LB Jadeveon Clowney (knee) is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bucs.
  • Panthers CB Jaycee Horn (hip) is doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Bucs.

There are 20 players on the Panthers injury report for this week which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries and is 24.7% less than the Buccaneers.

Player Props:

  • C. Hubbard has gone under 19.5 receiving yards in the last 12 games in a row.
  • Panthers receivers and the under:
    • X. Legette under 3.5 receptions in each of his last 2 games.
    • J. Coker under 3.5 receptions in each of his last 3 games.
    • A. Thielen under 56.5 receiving yards in his last 2 games.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • B. Young is projected for 17.9 fantasy points this week against the Buccaneers who are the #30 ranked defense for allowing fantasy points to QBs.
  • C. Hubbard is projected for 12 fantasy points, but the Bucs give up an average of 3.8 more fantasy points to RB than league averages. 

What are the Buccaneers goals for taking on the Panthers this week?

Skill Position Impact 

Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield is ranked #4 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 359 passes on 506 attempts and has averaged 261.3 yards per game with a completion percentage of 70.9% with 34 TD’s and 15 INT’s. His QBR is 3.9% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comeback and 1 game winning drive this season.

The Buccaneers running back Rachaad White is the #32 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 41.6 yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush attempt to go along with 3 TD’s and 3 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 50.7% which is 0.9% more than the league.

The Buccaneers tight end #1 Cade Otton is the #41 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 4.2 receptions per game while averaging 10.2 yards per reception to go along with 4 TD’s and 2 fumbles for the season.

For the Buccaneers at wide receiver #1 is Mike Evans who is ranked #43 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 4.8 catches per game and 14.4 yards per reception to go with 9 TD’s and 0 fumbles on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 65.5% which is 6.8% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 60.9% which is 19.7% more than the wide receiver league averages. 

Overall Offense Analysis for the Buccaneers

The offense for the Buccaneers has scored 427 points so far this year which is 24.4% more than the NFL average and they have 22 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.5 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Buccaneers show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 46.3% of their drives whereas 13.6% of drives end with a fumble or interception. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Buccaneers have scored 39 red zone TD’s on 58 attempts which is 39.1% higher and 18.7% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Buccaneers

The Buccaneers defense has allowed 352 points so far this year which is 2.6% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 18 turnovers for an average of 1.2 turnovers per game which is 0% more than the rest of the league. The Buccaneers rush defense is giving up 104 rush yards per game to go along with 13 rushing TD’s.  The pass defense for the Buccaneers is allowing 250.3 pass yards per game, 24 passing TD’s, and 7 INT’s.

The Buccaneers advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 32.7%, QB hurry rate of 6%, QB knockdown rate of 11.2% and QB pressure rate of 22.3%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Buccaneers

  • Buccaneers S Antoine Winfield Jr. (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Panthers, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers’ official site reports.
  • Buccaneers S Jordan Whitehead is on Injured Reserve and the latest update is Whitehead (pectoral) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Panthers, Jenna Laine of ESPN.com reports.
  • Buccaneers LB K.J. Britt (ankle) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Panthers, Jenna Laine of ESPN.com reports.
  • Buccaneers WR Sterling Shepard is listed as Out for this week’s game and Coach Todd Bowles said Friday that Shepard (hamstring/foot) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game versus the Panthers, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers’ official site reports.
  • Buccaneers TE Cade Otton is listed as Out for this week’s game and Coach Todd Bowles said Friday that Otton (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Panthers, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers’ official site reports.
  • Buccaneers S Christian Izien (pectoral) was placed on injured reserve Thursday, Scott Smith of the team’s official site reports.

The Buccaneers have 16 players on their injury report which is 1.2% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 24.7% more than the Panthers.

Player Props:

  • B. Mayfield has gone over 0.5 INTs in 4 straight games, over 1.5 passing TDs in his last 3 games, and over 243.5 passing yards in the last 3 games as well.
  • J. McMillan has gone over 3.5 receptions and over 39.5 receiving yards in all of his last 3 games.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • R. White (RB) has gone over 11.5 fantasy points in his last 3 games.
  • B. Mayfield has gone over 19 fantasy points in 3 consecutive games.

Mindy’s Pick: Buccaneers -8.0 @ -110

Overall comparison of the offenses in this match-up shows that the Buccaneers have the advantages in 20 of 21 offensive statistics vs the Panthers.  Overall team efficiency stats have the Panthers ranked #29 while the Buccaneers come in ranked #12 in this week’s ranking list.  For the Buccaneers this year they are 9-6-0 ATS overall and cover at 60% with a MOV of 5 points.  The pick for this match-up is the Buccaneers on the Spread at -8 with a variance of 1.87 points.

 

If you loved this article, make sure you check out this Titans vs Jags prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/27/tennessee-titans-vs-jacksonville-jaguars-prediction-12-29-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 33-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!