LA Chargers vs New England Patriots Predictions 12/28/24 NFL

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Prediction 12/28/24 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Los Angeles Chargers Line: -3.5
New England Patriots Line: 3.5
Total: 42.5
TV: NFLN

Hope you are ready for this Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Prediction!  On Saturday 12/28 the Los Angeles Chargers will take on the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The forecast for Saturday is 39.6°F with 3.6 mph wind and 4% chance of rain.  This game features a match-up of the AFC West vs AFC East.  The AFC West is the #2 ranked conference in the NFL with a 58.3% winning percentage while the AFC East is the #6 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 43.4%.  The 9-6 Chargers are ranked #2 in the AFC West and the 3-12 Patriots are ranked #4 in the AFC East.

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Chargers defeated the Broncos 34 to 27 in which they allowed the Broncos to gain a total of 355 yards of offense. The Charges are sitting in the 2nd wildcard spot at 9-6 but the Broncos are in 3rd spot, also with a 9-6 record, but the Chargers own the tiebreakers.

Last week the Patriots lost against the Bills 21 to 24 while allowing the Bills to gain 324 yards of total offense and had 2 more turnovers than the Bills. The Patriots have been eliminated from the playoffs but with a rookie QB still learning this game, it will be approached as business as usual.

What are the Chargers looking to prove against the Patriots this week?

Skill Position Impact 

Justin Herbert is ranked #17 for QB’s this week and has completed 278 passes on 430 attempts this season.  He has averaged 216.2 yards per game with a completion percentage of 64.7% with 18 TD’s and 3 INT’s. His QBR is 0.3% above the league average and has 2 game winning drives this season.

The Chargers running back Gus Edwards is listed as questionable on this week injury report but if he plays he is the #42 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 33.2 yards per game and 3.6 yards per rush attempt while scoring 4 TD’s.

The Chargers tight end 1 Will Dissly is also listed as questionable on the injury report.  If he plays, is the #80 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.3 receptions per game while averaging 9.7 yards per reception.  The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 78.2% which is 9.1% above league average for tight ends.

Wide receiver 1 for the Chargers is Quentin Johnston who is ranked #111 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 2.8 receptions per game with a 12.9 yards per catch average to go along with 8 TD’s.

The Chargers have rookie Ladd McConkey listed as WR2 this week, but he has started to become Herbert’s #1 option based on his consistency.  He is ranked as the #25 WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 4.9 receptions per game with a 13.9 yards per catch average with 5 TD’s and 2 fumbles for the year. Advanced receiving stats show him as having a catch success rate of 73.4% which is 14.4% above league average along with a receiving success rate of 58.5% which is 12.7% more than the league average for WR2’s for this stat.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Chargers

The Chargers offense has scored 328 points this season which is 4.4% less than the NFL average and have 9 turnovers. The Chargers offensive per drive statistics show that 38.9% of their drives end in a score while 4.9% of drives end with a turnover. We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency, and this has been an area I’m sure the Chargers would like to improve on as they have scored only 23 red zone TD’s on 40 red zone opportunities which is 17.9% lower and 18.1% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Chargers

The defense for Chargers has allowed 274 points in 2024 which is 20.2% less than the NFL average for points allowed. The D has caused 19 turnovers which is an average of 1.3 turnovers per game which is 8.3% more than the league average. The Chargers pass defense is allowing 213.8 passing yards per game, 21 TD’s, and 14 INT’s which compared to league averages are 1.6% above, 3.7% above, 28.4% above league averages respectively for passing defense. A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Chargers defense blitzes at 21.7% with a QB hurry rate of 4.8%, a QB knockdown rate of 7.9% and a QB pressure rate of 19%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Chargers 

  • Chargers TE Hayden Hurst is listed as questionable for this week’s game due to an illness.
  • Chargers RB Gus Edwards is listed as questionable for this week’s game and was a limited participant in practice due to an ankle injury.
  • Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins is still on Injured Reserve but Dobbins (knee) was a limited participant in practice.
  • Chargers TE Will Dissly is listed as questionable for this week’s game but Dissly (shoulder) was a limited participant in practice.
  • Chargers LB Denzel Perryman is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Perryman (groin) didn’t practice.
  • Chargers S Marcus Maye (ankle) was placed on IR by the Chargers on Monday.

There are 20 players on the Chargers injury report for this week which is 29.3% more than the NFL average of 15.47 injuries and is 32.3% less than the Patriots.

Player Props:

  • Justin Herbert is facing the #8 defense against QB yards allowed per game and the Patriots are only allowing 222.6 yards per game.  Herbert averages only 216.2 yards per game and is projected for 219.4 yards this week which is 24.10 yards under the current Passing Yards prop line of 243.5 offered at FanDuel at -114 odds.  Take this UNDER before it is gone.
  • Also for Herbert, the Patriots defense is ranked 9th lowest in Pass Attempts allowed per game at 30.73.  The current Passing Attempts player prop line is set at 32.5 and Herbert is projected at only 29.7 which offers a 2.8 variance.  Take the UNDER again and currently the best line is at DraftKings at -120.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • Justin Herbert is facing the #10 toughest defense in the NFL for total fantasy points allowed in the Patriots who are allowing only 17.0 points per game to opposing QB’s.
  • Herbert is ranked as the #13 Fantasy QB this week and is facing the Patriots defense that gives up .98 fewer fantasy points per game to QB’s than the average defense.

What do the Patriots want to accomplish this week against the Chargers?

Skill Position Impact 

The Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye has a record of 2-8 as starting quarterback this season and is ranked #22 on the QB Rankings for this week.  He has completed 213 passes on 315 attempts and has averaged 196.3 yards per game with a completion percentage of 67.6% with 14 TD’s and 10 INT’s. His QBR is 0.8% above the league average.

The Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson is the #17 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 57.1 yards per game and 3.9 yards per rush attempt to go along with 7 TD’s and 7 fumbles, which is never a good ratio. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 50.2% which is 0.1% less than the league average for this statistic.

The Patriots tight end 1 Hunter Henry is the #29 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 4.4 receptions per game while averaging 10.2 yards per reception to go along with 2 TD’s.

For the Patriots at wide receiver 1 is Kendrick Bourne who is ranked #168 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 2.4 catches per game and 11.3 yards per reception to go with 1 TD. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 75% which is 23% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 53.1% which is 5.4% more than the wide receiver league averages.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Patriots

The offense for the Patriots has scored 259 points so far this year which is 24.5% less than the NFL average and they have 21 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.4 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Patriots show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 31% of their drives whereas 13.3% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Red Zone numbers for the Pat’s aren’t great.  They have 21 red zone TD’s on 44 attempts which is 25.1% lower and 9.9% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Patriots

The Patriots defense has allowed 361 points so far this year which is 5.2% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 12 turnovers for an average of 0.8 turnovers per game which is 33.3% less than the rest of the league. The pass defense for the Patriots is allowing 212.4 pass yards per game, 23 passing TD’s, and 7 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 2.3% above, 5.5% below, 35.8% below league averages respectively for pass defense. The Patriots advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 25.2%, QB hurry rate of 6.7%, QB knockdown rate of 6.3% and QB pressure rate of 17.9%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Bears

  • Patriots C Ben Brown is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Brown (concussion) did not participate in practice.
  • Patriots LB Curtis Jacobs has been on Injured Reserve but the Patriots designated Jacobs (concussion) for return from injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
  • Patriots S Kyle Dugger is listed as questionable for this week’s game.

The Patriots have 15 players on their injury report which is 3% less than the NFL average of 15.47 injuries for this week and is 32.3% more than the Chargers.

Player Props:

  • Drake Maye has been over .5 INT’s for 7 straight games and he is facing the 7th best team in interceptions per game in the Chargers who average .93 INT’s per game.  Take this OVER for this game with the best odds currently at -200 at BETMGM.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has gone over rush yards in his last 3 straight games.  The Patriots will need to establish a running game to support Drake Maye.  Take the OVER and currently the best line is at BetRivers 41.5 at -112.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • Drake Maye is facing the 16th toughest defense in the NFL for total fantasy points allowed in the Chargers who are allowing only 17.4 points per game to opposing QB’s.
  • Maye ranked as the #21 Fantasy QB this week and is facing the Chargers defense that gives up .58 fewer fantasy points per game to QB’s than the average defense.

Mindy’s Pick: Chargers -3.5 @ -120

Overall team efficiency stats have the Chargers ranked #8 while the Patriots come in ranked #27 in this week’s ranking list.  Analysis of overall, offense, defense, and special teams efficiencies have the Chargers with the advantage in 6 out of 8 efficiency rankings. The Chargers are 10-5-0 ATS this season overall and cover at 66.7% with a MOV of 3.6 points and the Patriots this year they are 6-8-1 ATS overall this year and cover at only 42.9% with a MOV of -6.8 points. The pick for this match-up is the Chargers on the Spread at -3.5 with a variance of 1.15 points.

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out this Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/26/denver-broncos-vs-cincinnati-bengals-prediction-12-28-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 33-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!