Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction 12/28/24 NFL

Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction 12/28/24 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction

Game Time: 4:30 PM EST
Denver Broncos Line: 3.0
Cincinnati Bengals Line: -3.0
Total: 49.5
TV: NFLN

Let’s go with this Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals prediction!!!  On Saturday 12/28 the Denver Broncos will take on the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. The forecast for Saturday is for a temp of 61.1°F with 8.1mph wind and 73% chance of rain.  This game features a match-up of the AFC West vs AFC North.  The AFC West is the #2 ranked conference in the NFL with a 58.3% winning percentage while the AFC North is the #4 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 50%.  The 9-6 Broncos are ranked #3 in the AFC West and the 7-8 Bengals are ranked #3 in the AFC North.

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Broncos lost against the Chargers 27 to 34 in which they allowed the Chargers to gain a total of 380 yards of offense.  The Broncos are sitting in the 3rd wildcard spot at 9-6 and must win one of the last two games to get into the playoffs.

Last week the Bengals beat up on the Browns 24 to 6 while allowing the Browns to gain 273 yards of total offense and had 2 fewer turnovers.  The Bengals are in the hunt for a wildcard spot and have to win their last two games and then get help from multiple teams to get a wildcard spot.

What are the Broncos looking to accomplish against the Bengals?

Skill Position Impact 

Broncos QB Bo Nix is ranked #18 for QB’s this week and he has completed 326 passes on 507 attempts while averaging 215.7 yards per game with a completion percentage of 64.3% with 22 TD’s and 11 INT’s. His QBR is 10.8% below the league average and he has 3 fourth quarter comebacks and 3 game winning drives this season.

The Broncos running back Javonte Williams is the #33 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 32.3 yards per game and 3.6 yards per rush attempt while scoring 4 TD’s and having 2 fumbles.

The Broncos tight end 1 Adam Trautman is the #246 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 0.8 receptions per game while averaging 15.3 yards per reception to go along with 2 TD’s. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 63.2% which is 11.9% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 47.4% is 16.2% less than the league.

Wide receiver 1 for the Broncos is Courtland Sutton who is ranked #23 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 4.7 receptions per game with a 13.1 yards per catch average to go along with 6 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats he has a success rate of 52.9% which is 5% more than the league average for wide receivers.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Broncos

The Broncos offense has scored 363 points this season which is 5.8% more than the NFL average and have 18 turnovers which is an average of 1.2 turnovers per game. The Broncos offensive per drive statistics show that 36.6% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 10.5% of drives end with a turnover. The Broncos average 11.5 offensive drives per game and they average 5.6 plays, 27.4 yards, starting field position on their Own 33.2 yard line, and result in 1.89 points per drive. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency, and the Broncos have scored 30 red zone TD’s on 49 red zone opportunities which is 7% higher and 0.3% higher than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Broncos

The defense for Broncos has allowed 281 points in 2024 which is 18.1% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 24 turnovers which is an average of 1.6 turnovers per game which is 33.3% more than the league average. The rush defense for the Broncos is allowing 99.8 rush yards per game and 9 rushing TD’s which is 0.17% higher and 0.37% higher than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Broncos pass defense is allowing 219.8 passing yards per game, 19 TD’s, and 15 INT’s which compared to league averages are just below average for passing defense. 

A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Broncos defense blitzes at 28.9% with a QB hurry rate of 9.5%, a QB knockdown rate of 10.6% and a QB pressure rate of 26.8%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Broncos 

  • Broncos RB Tyler Badie, who is still on injured reserve, is questionable to suit up in Saturday’s Week 17 contest against the Bengals, Aric DiLalla of the Broncos’ official site reports.

There are 4 players on the Broncos injury report for this week which is 76.9% less than the NFL average of 17.34 injuries and is 92.3% less than the Bengals.

Player Props:

  • Bo Nix is facing the #28 defense against QB TD passes allowed per game and the Bengals are allowing 1.73 TDs per game.  Nix averages 1.47 TDs per game and is projected for 1.6 TDs this week which is .1 TDs more than the current Passing TDs prop line of 1.5 BetRivers at +112 odds.  Take this OVER while it is hot.
  • Also for Nix, the Bengals defense is ranked 25th in Pass Yards allowed per game at 243.27.  The current Passing yards player prop line is set at 231.5 and Nix is projected at only 241.25 which offers a 9.75 variance.  Take the OVER and currently the best line is at BetMGM at -115.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • Bo Nix facing the #the 28th ranked defense in the NFL in the Bengals who are allowing 20.9 points per game to opposing QB’s.
  • Nix is ranked as the #11 Fantasy QB this week and is facing the Bengals defense that gives up 2.24 more fantasy points per game to QB’s than the average defense.

 

What do the Bengals need to do against the Broncos this week?

Skill Position Impact 

Bengals QB Joe Burrow is ranked #1 on the QB Rankings for this week and has been on fire after the first few weeks of the season.  He has completed 384 passes on 557 attempts and has averaged 281.9 yards per game with a completion percentage of 68.9% with 39 TD’s and 8 INT’s. His QBR is 24.7% above the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comeback and 1 game winning drive this season.

The Bengals running back Chase Brown is the #15 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 61.5 yards per game and 4.4 yards per rush attempt to go along with 7 TD’s and 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 52.2% which is 3.9% more than the league average.

The Bengals tight end 1 Mike Gesicki is the #70 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.1 receptions per game while averaging 10.9 yards per reception to go along with 2 TD’s and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 77% which is 7.4% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 62.3% is 10.2% more than the league average.

For the Bengals at wide receiver 1 is Ja’Marr Chase who is ranked #1 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL and he has been taking defenses to the woodshed almost every week.  He averages 7.2 catches per game and 14 yards per reception to go with 16 TD’s. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 74% which is 21.3% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 63.7% which is 26.5% more than the wide receiver league averages.

At wide receiver 2 the Bengals have Tee Higgins.  He is ranked at #42 on the WR\TE’s ranks this week and averages 5.8 receptions per game and 12.5 yards per reception with season totals of 7 TD’s and 0 fumbles. He has a catch success rate of 63% which is 1.8% below league average and a receiving success rate of 59.8% which is 15.2% more than the WR league averages in the advanced receiving metrics.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Bengals

The offense for the Bengals has scored 423 points so far this year which is 23.3% more than the NFL average and they have 19 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.3 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Bengals show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 43.9% of their drives whereas 10.8% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Bengals offensive per drive averages are 9.9 drives per game with an average of 6 plays, 34.3 yards, starting field position on the Bengals Own 30.6 yard line, and average 2.56 points per drive. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical and the Bengals have scored 34 red zone TD’s on 50 attempts which is 21.3% higher and 2.4% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Bengals

The Bengals defense has allowed 393 points so far this year which is 14.5% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 23 turnovers for an average of 1.5 turnovers per game which is 25% more than the rest of the league. The Bengals rush defense is giving up 128.3 rush yards per game to go along with 19 rushing TD’s which is respectively 7% lower and 32% lower than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Bengals is allowing 231.6 pass yards per game, 26 passing TD’s, and 14 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 7% above, 19% above, 28% above league averages respectively for pass defense. 

The Bengals advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 24.1%, QB hurry rate of 7.6%, QB knockdown rate of 11.5% and QB pressure rate of 22.6%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Bengals

  • Bengals DT Sheldon Rankins is listed as Out for this week’s game and Rankins (illness) has been ruled out for Saturday’s game against the Broncos, Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic reports.
  • Bengals WR Charlie Jones is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Jones (groin) is questionable to play against the Broncos on Saturday after logging a limited practice Thursday.
  • Bengals TE Tanner Hudson is listed as doubtful for this week’s game and Hudson (knee) is listed as doubtful for Saturday’s game against the Broncos after logging a DNP on Thursday’s injury report.
  • Bengals WR Tee Higgins is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Higgins (ankle/knee) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game against the Broncos, Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic reports.
  • Bengals OT Amarius Mims is listed as questionable for this week’s game.

The Bengals have over 20 players on their injury report which is 15.3% more than the NFL average of 17.34 injuries for this week and is 92.3% more than the Broncos.

Player Props:

  • Joe Burrow is facing the Broncos defense that is #4 in interceptions made.  Burrow averages .53 INTs per game and the Broncos defense averages 1.01 INTs per game.  Take this OVER as the Bengals will be desperate to win and will take chances.  The best odds currently are at -109 at BETMGM.
  • Chase Brown averages 3.3 receptions a game and is facing the Broncos defense who is Ranked #26 in giving up receptions to running backs and they average 5.13 receptions allowed per game.  Brown is projected for 4.22 receptions this week.  Take the OVER and currently the best line is at FanDuel 3.5 at -120.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • Joe Burrow is facing the #7 toughest defense in the NFL for allowing total fantasy points to the Broncos who are allowing only 15.5 fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s.
  • Burrow ranked as the #3 Fantasy QB this week and is facing the Broncos defense that gives up 1.60 fewer fantasy points per game to QB’s than the average defense.

Mindy’s Pick: Bengals Moneyline @ -165

Overall comparison of the offenses in this match-up shows that the Bengals have the advantage in 18 of 24 offensive statistics compared to the Broncos offense.  As the underdog, the Broncos are 2-6-0 on the Moneyline for the season and cover at only 25% rate with a MOV of -5 points while as the favorite, the Bengals are 7-4-0 on the Moneyline for the year and cover at 63.6% with a MOV of 3.8 points.  The pick for this match-up is the Bengals on the Moneyline at -165 with a projected score of Broncos 24.9 and the Bengals 27.2.

 

If you enjoyed this article, check out the Cardinals vs Rams Prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/26/arizona-cardinals-vs-los-angeles-rams-prediction-12-28-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 33-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!