Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams 12/28/23 NFL Odds, Picks, and Previews

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction 12/28/24 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction

Game Time: 8:15 PM EST
Arizona Cardinals Line: 6.0
Los Angeles Rams Line: -6.0
Total: 48.5
TV: NFLN

Here comes a bold prediction for the Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction!!!  On Saturday 12/28 the Arizona Cardinals will take on the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.  This game features a match-up of two NFC West teams.  The NFC West is the #5 ranked conference in the NFL with a 50% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 7-8 Cardinals are ranked #3 in the NFC West and the 9-6 Rams are ranked #1.

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Cardinals suffered a devastating loss against the lowly Panthers 30 to 36 in which they allowed the Panthers to gain a total of 392 yards of offense and having 2 more turnovers.  The Cardinals have been eliminated from the playoffs by one of the worst teams in the NFL this year.  All they have left is trying to spoil the Rams’ chances at winning the division and the playoffs which does give the Cardinals a reason to play Angry Birds against their conference foe, the Rams.

Last week the Rams came out with the victory against the Jets 19 to 9 while allowing the Jets to gain 321 yards of total offense and having 1 fewer turnover than the Jets.  The Rams are leading the NFC West but are in a tight battle with the Seahawks whom they will have to face in the last game of the season.

What are the Cardinals looking to build on against the Rams?

Skill Position Impact 

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is ranked #15 for QB’s this week and he has completed 314 passes on 458 attempts and has averaged 219.2 yards per game with a completion percentage of 68.6% with 16 TD’s and 9 INT’s. His QBR is 13.6% above the league average and he has 3 fourth quarter comebacks and 3 game winning drives this season.

The Cardinals running back James Conner is listed as questionable for this week’s game against the Rams due to a knee injury.  Conner is the #11 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 72.7 yards per game and 4.7 yards per rush attempt while scoring 8 TD’s and having 4 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 52.2% which is 3.9% more than the league average.

The Cardinals tight end 1 Trey McBride is the #8 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 6.6 receptions per game while averaging 10.4 yards per reception but does not have a TD’s on the  season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 76.7% which is 7% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 64.2% is 13.5% more than the league average.

Wide receiver 1 for the Cardinals is rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. who is ranked #58 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3.4 receptions per game with 14.2 yards per catch average to go along with 7 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Cardinals

The Cardinals offense has scored 344 points this season which is 0.2% more than the NFL average and have 18 turnovers which is an average of 1.2 turnovers per game. The Cardinals offensive per drive statistics show that 44.5% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 12.3% of drives end with a turnover. The Cardinals average 9.7 offensive drives per game and they average 6.4 plays, 36.4 yards, starting field position on their Own 27.9 yard line, and result in 2.27 points per drive. 

We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Cardinals have scored 27 red zone TD’s on 49 red zone opportunities which is 3.7% lower and 0.3% higher than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Cardinals

The defense for Cardinals has allowed 342 points in 2024 which is 0.3% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 14 turnovers which is an average of 0.9 turnovers per game which is 25% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Cardinals is allowing 129.5 rush yards per game and 16 rushing TD’s which is 8.34% lower and 12% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Cardinals pass defense is allowing 212.5 passing yards per game, 18 TD’s, and 7 INT’s which compared to league averages are 2.2% below, 17.4% below, 35.7% below league averages respectively for passing defense. 

A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Cardinals defense blitzes at 20.2% with a QB hurry rate of 5.1%, a QB knockdown rate of 6.8% and a QB pressure rate of 18.2%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Cardinals 

  • Cardinals RB James Conner is listed as and Conner (knee) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game at the Rams, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports.
  • Cardinals PK Matt Prater is on Injured Reserve and Prater (knee) has been ruled out for Saturday’s game at the Rams, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports.
  • Cardinals LB Baron Browning is listed as questionable for this week’s and Browning (neck) is questionable to suit up Saturday against the Rams.
  • Cardinals RB Trey Benson is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Benson (ankle) is listed as questionable for Saturday’s contest at the Rams, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports.
  • Cardinals CB Elijah Jones is on Injured Reserve and will not play in this week’s game and Jones (ankle) had his 21-day practice window expire Thursday without being activated off IR, marking an end to his rookie campaign, Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic reports.
  • Cardinals S Joey Blount is listed as Out for this week’s game and Head coach Jonathan Gannon said that Blount (ribs) won’t play in Saturday’s game against the Rams, Darren Urban of the Cardinals’ official site reports.
  • Cardinals OT Jonah Williams is on Injured Reserve and the latest update is the Cardinals placed Williams (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Zach Gershman of the team’s official site reports.

There are 18 players on the Cardinals injury report for this week which is 3.8% more than the NFL average of 17.34 injuries and is 51.9% more than the Rams.

Player Props:

  • Kyler Murray is facing the #10 defense against QB completions allowed per game and the Rams are allowing 20.07 completions per game.  Murray averages 20.93 completions per game and is projected for 20.5 completions this week which is 2.01 completed under the current Passing completions prop line of 22.5 at BetRivers with -130 odds.  Take this UNDER while you can get it.
  • Also for Murray, the Rams defense is ranked 20th in Pass Yards allowed per game at 237.13.  The current Passing yards player prop line is set at 222.5 and Murray is projected at 228.17 yards which offers a 5.67 variance.  Take the OVER and currently the best line is at BetRivers at 222.5 with odds at -114 for the over.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • Kyler Murray is facing the #25 ranked defense in the NFL in the Rams who are allowing 18.6 points per game to opposing QB’s.
  • Murray is ranked as the #12 Fantasy QB this week and is facing the Rams defense that gives up 1.28 more fantasy points per game to QB’s than the average defense.

What will the Rams need to do against the Cardinals to not lose their grip on the playoffs?

Skill Position Impact 

Rams QB Matthew Stafford is ranked #8 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 323 passes on 485 attempts and has averaged 238.2 yards per game with a completion percentage of 66.6% with 20 TD’s and 8 INT’s. His QBR is 10.4% above the league average and he has 3 fourth quarter comebacks and 5 game winning drives this season.

The Rams running back Kyren Williams is the #2 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 82.9 yards per game and 4.1 yards per rush attempt to go along with 13 TD’s and 5 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 51.2% which is 1.9% more than the league average.

For the Rams at wide receiver 1 is Cooper Kupp who is ranked #30 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 6 catches per game and 10.3 yards per reception to go with 6 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 68% which is 11.5% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 47.4% which is 5.9% less than the wide receiver league averages.

Since every hero needs a sidekick, at WR2 the Rams have Puka Nacua who is ranked at #26 on the WR\TE’s ranks this week and averages 6.9 receptions per game and 12.5 yards per reception with season totals of 3 TD’s. He has a catch success rate of 75% which is 16.9% above league average and a receiving success rate of 63% which is 21.3% more than the WR league averages.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Rams

The offense for the Rams has scored 329 points so far this year which is 4.1% less than the NFL average and they have 13 turnovers on offense for an average of 0.9 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Rams show they scored in 38.3% of their drives whereas 8.7% of drives end with turnover. The Rams offensive per drive averages are 9.9 drives per game with an average of 6.4 plays, 33.3 yards, starting field position on the Rams Own 30.1 yard line, and average 2.06 points per drive. 

When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Rams have scored 30 red zone TD’s on 57 attempts which is 7% higher and 16.7% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Rams

The Rams defense has allowed 347 points so far this year which is 1.1% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 18 turnovers for an average of 1.2 turnovers per game. The Rams rush defense is giving up 131.4 rush yards per game to go along with 13 rushing TD’s which is respectively 0.0993132777913339% lower and 0.090909090909091% higher than rush defense averages across the league (just thought I would be precise).  The pass defense for the Rams is allowing 220 pass yards per game, 24 passing TD’s, and 11 INT’s. 

The Rams advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 23.6%, QB hurry rate of 10.1%, QB knockdown rate of 7.3% and QB pressure rate of 22.9%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Rams

  • Rams OT Rob Havenstein is listed as questionable for this week’s game.

The Rams have 9 players on their injury report which is 48.1% less than the NFL average of 17.34 injuries for this week and is 51.9% less than the Cardinals.

Player Props:

  • Kyren Williams is facing the #24 ranked defense against RB receptions in the Rams who give up 4.87 receptions per game to RB’s.  Williams averages 2.10 but is projected for 3.49 receptions this week.  The player prop is at only 1.5 receptions with the best line at DraftKings with -136 odds for the OVER.
  • Kyren Williams is facing the #26 ranked defense against Rushing yards per game for the Rams who give up 108.67 rushing yards per game to RB’s.  Williams averages 82.9 yards per game but has been over 93.5 rushing yards in his last 2 games.  He is projected for 96.73 rushing yards this week.  The player prop is at 92.5 with the best line at BetRivers with -114 odds for the OVER.

Fantasy Highlight:

  • Matthew Stafford is facing the #16 ranked defense in the NFL for allowing fantasy points to the Cardinals who are allowing only 17.2 fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s.
  • Stafford ranked as the #16 Fantasy QB this week and is facing the Cardinals defense that gives up 1.25 fewer fantasy points per game to QB’s than the average defense.  Stafford has been averaging 18.9 fantasy points per game over his last 5 games.

Mindy’s Pick: Cardinals +6.5 @ -105

Overall comparison of the offenses in this match-up shows that the Cardinals have the advantage in 14 of 25 offensive statistics compared to the Rams offense.  The Cardinals are 9-6-0 ATS this season overall and cover at 60%.  The Rams will be motivated to win but the Cardinals will hang around and be a pain in the you know what for the Rams this week.  The pick for this match-up is the Cardinals on the Spread at 6.5 with a variance of 7.85 points.

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out this college basketball prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/26/gonzaga-vs-ucla-prediction/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 33-5 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!