Iowa vs Missouri Prediction

Iowa vs Missouri Prediction 12/30/2024: College Football Picks

by

Iowa vs Missouri Prediction

What: TransPerfect Music City Bowl
When: Monday, December 30, 2024 at 2:30 EST/11:30 PST
Where: Nissan Stadium (Matrix Helix Turf), Nashville, Tennessee
Iowa vs Missouri Line: Missouri -3
Total: 40.5
TV: ESPN

Iowa vs Missouri Prediction

Iowa (8-4, 6-3 in Big Ten) meets No. 19 Missouri (9-3, 5-3 in Big 12) in the TransPerfect Music City Bowl at Nissan Stadium in Nashville on Monday afternoon. In their last 5 games, the Hawkeyes have gone 4-1, defeating Northwestern by 26 (40-14), beating Wisconsin by 32 (42-10), losing at UCLA by 3 (20-17), beating Maryland by 16, and closing out the Regular Season with a 3-point Home win vs Nebraska (13-10). In their last 5, the Tigers went 3-2, getting blanked at Alabama by 34 (34-0), defeating Oklahoma by 7 (30-23), losing at South Carolina by 4 (34-30), and then closing with back-to-back wins at Mississippi State by 19 (39-20) and vs Arkansas by 7 (28-21). Iowa has been to 36 Bowl games and gone 18-17-1, getting shut out in the 2023 Citrus Bowl by Tennessee (35-0) while Mizzou has also appeared in 36 Bowls, going 16-20 and beating Ohio State by 11 points in the 2023 Cotton Bowl Classic (14-3).

Iowa QB Cade McNamara Enters the Transfer Portal

Iowa (6-5-1 ATS, 9-3-0 O/U) has been one of the best Over teams in FBS, after being a dead-Under team last season. Hawkeyes (+130) starting QB Cade McNamara (1,017 Passing yards, 6 TD, 5 Interceptions) entered the Transfer Portal earlier this month and the graduate student will play a 7th year of College Football somewhere else in 2025. QB Marco Lainez also entered the Transfer Portal so Brendan Sullivan and Jackson Stratton will be the signal callers for this Midwest showdown with Sullivan—a Transfer from Northwestern—the starter after returning from an Ankle Injury sustained early in the season. Head Coach Kirk Ferentz also saw RB Kaleb Johnson (1,537 Rushing yards) Opt-out as well as starting CB Jermari Harris, so Iowa will be without its No. 1 QB and RB. The Hawkeyes average 28.0 ppg (#70) while allowing just 17.1 ppg (#9) and average 131.7 Passing Yards Per Game (#131) and a solid 199.8 Rushing Yards Per Game (#20), but that was with Johnson in tow.

Iowa Betting Trends

  • Iowa is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 games overall
  • The Over is 5-2-0 in the Hawkeyes’ last 7 games
  • Iowa is 7-3-0 SU in its last 10 games, 4-1 in its last 5 
  • The Hawkeyes beat Mizzou as 3-Point underdogs in 2010
  • Iowa went 6-7-1 ATS last 2023 NCAAF season (46.2%)

Missouri Without WR Burden III For Music City Bowl

Missouri (8-4-0 ATS, 5-7-0 O/U) has been a great team to bet on this season, and the Tigers (-155 Moneyline) will look to do the SEC proud in this showdown in Opryland. Mizzou is led by QB Brady Cook (2,248 Passing yards, 9 TD, 2 Interceptions), RB Nate Noel (804 Rushing yards, 3 TD, 5.1 ypc), and WRs Theo Wease Jr. (809 Receiving yards, 3 TD, 14.7 ypc) and Luther Burden III (675 Receiving yards, 6 TD, 11.1 ypc), and Wease is expected to play but WR Mekhi Miller entered the Transfer Portal, Burden III Opted-Out and WR Mookie Cooper was hurt in Week 8 and is out for the season. RT Armand Membou and LB Chuck Hicks also Opted-Out. The Tigers average 29.1 ppg (Tied-#61) allow just 20.1 ppg (Tied-#18) and average 219.9 Passing Yards Per Game (#77) and 170.8 Rushing Yards Per Game (#54).

Missouri Betting Trends

  • Missouri is 1-4 SU in its last 5 Bowl games 
  • The Tigers are 6-1-0 ATS in their last 7 games
  • The Over is 3-1 in the last 4 Missouri games
  • Missouri is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games overall
  • The Tigers went 9-4-0 ATS in the 2023 NCAAF season (69.2%)
  • Missouri has scored 28, 38,30, and 30 points in its last 4 games

Iowa vs Missouri Prediction

Played on a Monday afternoon after the week of Christmas, expect a sleepy and slow start from these two and with Iowa welcoming Sullivan back, this one may be a slog for the first 30 minutes in Nashville where the Weather is forecast to be Partly Cloudy with gametime Temperatures around 59°. Without RB Johnson, the Hawkeyes will have to turn to some other guys to run the football and the Tigers’ defense has been pretty good, maybe not as good as Iowa’s, but Points could come hard in this one. This Iowa vs Missouri NCAAF pick will look to the Totals market and expect a low-scoring game with the game ducking Under the Total with around 36 to 38 points on the scoreboard after both played Unders in the Bowl games last year (35 and 17 points), scoring a total of 14 points combined.

Kevin’s Prediction: Iowa-Missouri Under 40.5