Texas Tech vs Arkansas Prediction 12/27/2024

Texas Tech vs Arkansas Preview

Texas Tech (8-4, 6-3 in Big 12) faces Arkansas (6-6, 3-5 in SEC) in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl in Memphis on Friday night. In their last 5 games, the Red Raiders have gone 3-2, losing to TCU by 1 (35-34), beating Iowa State by 1 (23-22), losing to Colorado by 14 (41-27), and then beating Oklahoma State by 8 (56-48) and West Virginia by 37 (52-15). In the RazorbRazorback’s5, they went 2-3, winning by 27 to Mississippi State (58-25), losing to Ole Miss by 32 (63-31) and Texas by 10 (20-10), beating Louisiana Tech by 21 (35-14), and then losing at Missouri by 7 (28-21). Arkansas is 17-24-3 in its 44 Bowls and has gone 5-1 in its last 6, including a win vs Kansas in last year’s Liberty Bowl by 2 in 3 OT (55-53) while Texas Tech is 16-23-1 in its 40 Postseason Bowl games. 

Texas Tech Without Starting QB and Best Receiver 

Texas Tech (7-4-1 ATS, 8-4-0 O/U) has been a solid team ATS and for Over backers but the Red Raiders (+100 Moneyline) will be without OC Zach Kittley who left for FAU as well as DC Tim DeRuyter who they let go. Texas Tech has 7 guys in the Transfer Portal but has a bigger problem with starting QB Behren Morton out with an Injury and having Shoulder surgery, so Freshman Will Hammond (191 Passing yards, TD) will be behind CentecenterJosh Kelly (1,023 Receiving yards, 6 TD, 11.5 ypc) is an Opt-out with RB Tahj Brooks (1,505 Rushing yards, 7 TD is a partial Opt-out, so TT may be without its most 3 productive players on offense. The Red Raiders will need Brooks to play and Hammond to have a good game to prevail in this one. No Kelly hurts.

Texas Tech Betting Trends

• Texas Tech is 7-3-0 SU in the last 10 games overall
• The Under is 7-3-0 in the Red Raiders’ last 10 games
• Texas Tech is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
• The Over is 3-0-0in  the last 3 TT games, 5-1 in the last 6
• Texas Tech went 6-7-0 ATS last 2023 NCAAF season (46.2%)

Arkansas Now Like a Skeleton of its Starting Roster

Arkansas (7-5-0 ATS, 6-6-0 O/U) has a mind-boggling 13 players who have entered the Transfer Portal, so the Razorbacks (-120 Moneyline) will not even look close to the same team they were in the Regular Season, On offense, the starting Center, LG, RG, 2 WRs and TE have all signed with other schools while on defense, there are also 3. Star WR Andrew Armstong (1,140 Receiving yards, TD), RB Ja’Quinden Jackson (790 Rushing yards, 15 TD), DE Landon Jackson and DT Eric Gregory are all Opt-Outs and this team is down to just 6 healthy guys on the OL. RB Rodney Hill, WRs Isaac TeSlaa (439 Receiving yards, 3 TD), CJ Brown, and Monte Harrison, and TE Andreas Passke will go, so QB Taylen Green (2,813 Passing yards, 13 TD, 9 Interceptions) won’t be alone on offense. Still, the lack of depth on the OL is scary and an Injury or fatigue could make life a lot harder on Friday.

Arkansas Betting Trends

• Arkansas is 1-3-0 ATS in its last 4 games
• The Razorbacks are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games overall
• Arkansas is making its record 7th Liberty Bowl appearance
• The Razorbacks are 2-0 in Bowl games under HC Sam Pittman
• Arkansas went 5-7-0 ATS last 2023 NCAAF season (41.7%) 

Texas Tech vs Arkansas Prediction

This game is another example of why they need to make the Transfer Portal open on New Year’s Day (or later) and after the majority of the (now minor) Bowl games have been played. With Head Coaches, OCs, DCs, and key players not even playing in so many of these Bowl games, it has turned into a crapshoot and something football bettors should tread very lightly in. It is hard to gauge motivation in many of these games, and players can decide early or late that they do or don’t want to play as opposed to the Regular Season when we all pretty much know what’s going on. With the Red Raiders starting QB out, this game may depend on how well Hammond plays, but at least he is going up against a team with the majority of its key players not playing, right? This Texas Tech vs Arkansas NCAAF pick will back the small Underdog Red Raiders—who have scored 108 points in their last 2 games—with the Point Spread more than likely a non-entity in this one in Memphis.

Kevin’s Pick: Texas Tech +1.5

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