Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears Prediction

Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears Prediction 12/26/24 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears Prediction

Game Time: 8:15 PM EST
Seattle Seahawks Line: -3.5
Chicago Bears Line: 3.5
Total: 43.5
TV: AMZN

Ready for this Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears Prediction

 On Thursday 12/26 the Seattle Seahawks will take on the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The forecast for Thursday is for a temp of 44.7°F with 9.6 mph wind and a 30% chance of rain.  This game features a match-up of the NFC West vs NFC North.  The NFC West is the #5 ranked conference in the NFL with a 50% winning percentage while the NFC North is the #1 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 68.4%.  The 8-7 Seahawks are ranked #2 in the NFC West and the 4-11 Bears are ranked #4 in the NFC North.

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Seahawks lost against the Vikings 24 to 27 in which they allowed the Vikings to gain a total of 298 yards of offense and had 2 more turnovers than the Vikings.  The Seahawks are fighting for a playoff spot and need a win this week to keep their hopes alive to win the division.

Last week the Bears got blown out against the Lions 17 to 34 and allowed the Lions to gain 475 yards of total offense and had 2 more turnovers than the Lions. The Bears have been eliminated from the playoffs but with a rookie QB still learning the ropes, every game is important in building for next season.

What are the Seahawks relying on to beat the Bears this week?

Skill Position Impact 

Seahawks Geno Smith is ranked #3 for QBs this week and he has completed 370 passes on 528 attempts and has averaged 262.5 yards per game.  Mr. Smith has a completion percentage of 70.1% with 17 TD’s but has 15 INT’s. His QBR is 10.3% below the league average and he has 3 fourth-quarter comebacks and 3 game-winning drives this season.

The Seahawks running back duo of Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are both questionable due to injuries this week, but both did practice but were listed as limited participants.  Walker III is the #29 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 52.1 yards per game and 3.7 yards per rush attempt while scoring 7 TDs and having 1 fumble. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 44.4% which is 11.6% less than the league average but this is not surprising with the struggles on the offensive line.

The Seahawks tight end 1 Noah Fant is the #98 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.3 receptions per game while averaging 10.1 yards per reception with no TDs for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 73.6% which is 2.6% above the league Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears Prediction 12/26/24 NFL Pick: In this upcoming game, based on the advanced receiving stats, it is predicted that the Seattle Seahawks’ tight end 1 Noah Fant will perform well. Despite not having any touchdowns for the season, Fant has shown a strong catch success rate of 73.6%, which is 2.6% above the league average for tight ends. Additionally, his receiving success rate of 58.5% is 3.4% higher than the league average. average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 58.5% is 3.4% more than the league average.

Wide receiver 1 for the Seahawks is DK Metcalf who is ranked #38 for WR\TE’s this week and he is coming off a strong performance last week.  He averages 4.6 receptions per game with a 15-yard-per-catch average to go along with 4 TDs and 2 fumbles on the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 60% which is 1.6% below the league average, and a receiving success rate of 48% which is 4.7% less than the league average for wide receivers.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Seahawks

The Seahawks offense has scored 339 points this season which is 1.2% less than the NFL average and has 23 turnovers. The SSeahawk’ssoffensive per drive statistics shows that 35.2% of their drives end a score while 10.5% of drives end with a turnover. The Seahawks average 10.8 offensive drives per game and they average 5.8 plays, 30.4 yards, starting field position on their 28.3-yard line, and result in 1.9 points per drive. We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Seahawks have struggled with capitalizing on their opportunities to get into the red zone and score touchdowns as they have scored only 21 red zone TDs on 38 red zone opportunities which is 25.1% lower than 22.2% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Seahawks

The defense for the Seahawks has allowed 340 points in 2024 which is 0.9% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 16 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Seahawks is allowing 124.4 rush yards per game and 11 rushing TDs which is 4.1% higher and 23.1% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Seahawks’ pass defense is allowing 213.9 passing yards per game, 24 TDs, and 11 INTs which compared to league averages are 1.6% above, 10.1% below, and 0.9% above league averages respectively for passing defense. A look into the advanced team defense stats shows that the Seahawk’s defense blitzes at 23.4% with a QB hurry rate of 8%, a QB knockdown rate of 11.8%, and a QB pressure rate of 24.7%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Seahawks 

  • Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III (ankle) is listed as questionable and was listed as a non-practice participant so far this week, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.
  • Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet is listed as questionable and was listed as a non-practice participant so far this week, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.
  • Seahawks LB Uchenna Nwosu is listed as questionable and was listed as a non-practice participant so far this week, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.
  • Seahawks TE Noah Fant is listed as questionable and was listed as a non-practice participant so far this week, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.
  • Seahawks LB Derick Hall is listed as questionable for this week’s game.  
  • Seahawks LB Trevis Gipson (ankle) was placed on injured reserve Saturday.
  • Seahawks S K’Von Wallace (ankle) was placed on Injured Reserve and has been ruled out for this week’s game, Colin Gunther of the Seahawks’ official site reports.

There are 14 players on the Seahawks injury report for this week which is 7% less than the NFL average of 15.06 injuries and is 26.6% more than the Bears.

Player Props

  • DK Metcalf has scored a touchdown in his last 4 games as road favorites
  • Tyler Lockett has recorded 19+ receiving yards in his last 14 games
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has recorded 74+ receiving yards in his last 7 games

What do the Bears want to accomplish against the Seahawks this week?

Skill Position Impact 

The Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams hasn’t been great this year and that has to be disappointing for the Bears who had high hopes for the top pick in last year’s draft.  Williams is ranked #16 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 314 passes on 505 attempts and has averaged 218.1 yards per game with a completion percentage of 62.2% with 19 TD’s and 5 INT’s. His QBR is 19.9% below the league average and he has 1 fourth-quarter comeback and 0 game-winning drives.

The Bears running back D’Andre Swift is the #14 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 56.1 yards per game and 3.8 yards per rush attempt to go along with 5 TD’s and 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 43% which is 14.4% less than the league average.

The Bears tight end 1 Cole Kmet is the #77 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3 receptions per game while averaging 10.5 yards per reception to go along with 4 TD’s. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 84.9% which is 18.4% above the league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 73.6% is 30.1% more than the league average for these statistics.

For the Bears at wide receiver 1 is DJ Moore who is ranked #12 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 5.5 catches per game and 10 yards per reception to go with 5 TDs and 0 fumbles on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 68% which is 11.5% above the league average combined with a receiving success rate of 46.7% which is 7.3% less than the wide receiver league averages.

The Bears are also looking to keep building their offense around their WR2, Rome Odunze, who was also a first-round pick last year.  He is ranked at #59 on the WR\TE’s ranks this week and averages 3.4 receptions per game and 13.7 yards per reception with season totals of 3 TDs and 2 fumbles. He has a catch success rate of 53.7% which is 16.3% below the league average and a receiving success rate of 46.3% which is 10.8% less than the WR league averages for advanced receiving metrics.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Bears

The offense for the Bears has scored 283 points so far this year which is 17.5% less than the NFL average and they have 13 turnovers. The offense per drive stats for the Bears show they are scoring an FG or touchdown in only 31.3% of their drives whereas 6.9% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Bears’ offensive per-drive averages are 10.7 drives per game with an average of 6.1 plays, 27.6 yards, starting field position on the Bears’ 29.7-yard line, and an average of 1.71 points per drive. When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Bears have scored 22 red zone TDs on 35 attempts which is 21.5% lower and 28.3% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Bears

The Bear’s defense has allowed 342 points so far this year which is 0.3% less than the league average for points allowed while creating 21 turnovers for an average of 1.4 turnovers per game which is 16.7% more than the rest of the league. The Bears rush defense is giving up 134.1 rush yards per game to go along with 18 rushingTDss which are respectively 12.2% higher and 25.9% higher than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Bears is allowing 225.2 pass yards per game, 17 passing TD, and 11 INT which if compared to league averages is 3.6% below, 22% above, and 0.9% above league averages respectively for pass defense. The Bear’s advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 23.1%, QB hurry rate at 8.4%, QB knockdown rate at 11.8%, and QB pressure rate at 25.8%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Bears

  • Bears DT Gervon Dexter Sr. is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Dexter (knee) was listed as a limited participant on the practice report.
  • Bears RB Travis Homer is listed as questionable for this week’s and Homer (hamstring) was listed as a non-participant on this week’s practice report.
  • Bears OT Braxton Jones (ankle) was placed on injured reserve Monday, Scott Bair of Marquee Sports Network reports.
  • Bears G Teven Jenkins is listed as questionable for this week’s game.
  • Bears C Ryan Bates (concussion) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com reports.

The Bears have 18 players on their injury report which is 19.5% more than the NFL average of 15.06 injuries for this week and is 26.6% less than the Seahawks.

Player Props

  • Keenan Allen has scored a touchdown in his last 5 games
  • DJ Moore has scored a touchdown in his last 6 games vs the NFC
  • The ChicagoBearss has lost the first quarter in their last 4 games

Mindy’s Pick: Seahawks on the Moneyline at -190

As the favorite, the Seahawks are 3-1-0 on the Moneyline for the season and cover at 75% with a MOV of 5.3 points.  As the away team, the Seahawks have also done well, as they are 5-1-0 on the Moneyline and are covering at an unbelievable 83.3% with a MOV of 5 points. The pick for this match-up is the Seahawks on the Moneyline at -190 with a projected score of Seahawks 22.09 and the Bears 18.23.

 

Check out this Liberty Bowl prediction! https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/24/texas-am-vs-usc-prediction/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!