Oklahoma vs Navy Prediction 12/27/2024
| What: | Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl |
| When: | Friday, December 27, 2024 at 12:00 pm EST/9:00 am PST |
| Where: | Amon G. Carter Stadium (Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass), Fort Worth, Texas |
| Oklahoma vs Navy Line: | Oklahoma -3 |
| Total: | 43.5 |
| TV: | ESPN |
Oklahoma vs Navy Preview
Oklahoma (6-6, 2-6 in Big 12) faces Navy (9-3, 6-2 in AAC) in the Lockheed Martin Armed Services Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas on Friday morning in the first of a 5-Bowl buffet that day. In their last 5, the Sooners went 2-3, losing to Ole Miss by 12 (26-14), beating Maine by 45 (59-14), losing to Missouri by 7 (30-23), beating Alabama by 21 (24-3) to become Bowl eligible, and then falling to LSU by 20 in the Regular Season finale (37-17). So Oklahoma barely squeezed into Bowl eligibility. The Midshipmen went 3-2 in their last 5, losing to Rice by 14 (24-10), beating South Florida by 21 (28-7), getting shut out by Tulane by 35 (35-0), and then defeating East Carolina by 14 (34-20) and rivals Army by 18 in the Regular Season finale for the 2024 NCAA Football season (31-13). The Sooners are 31-25-1 in 57 Bowl games and lost the last 2 (2022, 2023) to Florida State and Arizona while Navy is 12-11-1 in 24 Bowl games and has won 5 of the last 6 including last year against Kansas State by 3 in the Liberty Bowl (20-17).
Oklahoma Has Too Many Players in Transfer Portal
Oklahoma (6-6-0 ATS, 6-6-0 O/U) is sort of icky to be playing in a Bowl and the Sooners (-161 Moneyline) have several Transfer Portal who won’t be playing here and who aren’t listed on the team’s Depth Chart including starting QB Jackson Arnold who signed with Auburn so Michael Hawkins will start at QB. Three WRs have also signed with other schools in Brenen Thompson (Mississippi State), JJ Hester (Kentucky), and Jalil Farooq (Maryland) while Deion Brooks is a question mark, 2 other guys are injured (Anderson, Anthony), and Jaquai, ze Pettaway is also in the Transfer Portal, so OU may end up with eight Freshmen at the WR spot. TE Bauer Sharp (signed with LSU) is also a no-go and this team has two Centers who have also committed elsewhere. And this is just the offense. There are already 2 Opt-outs and 4 more potential Opt-outs on defense but DE’s Ethan Downs and Mason Thomas will be playing.
Oklahoma Betting Trends
- Oklahoma is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games overall
- All 6 of the Sooners losses came in conference play
- The Over is 3-1-0 in OU’s last 4 games
- Oklahoma has scored 24 points or less in their last 3 games
- Oklahoma went 8-5-0 ATS last 2023 NCAAF season (61.5%)
Navy Looking to Do the Service Academies Proud
Navy (8-4-0 ATS, 8-4 O/U) had one of its best Regular Seasons ever, winning its first before CFP Quarterfinalist Notre Dame sank the ship, winning 51-14 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on October 26. But the Midshipmen (+135 Moneyline) won the game they always care most about—against Army—and have a healthy QB Blake Horvath—Semifinalist for the Comeback Player of the Year—ready to go for this one. Horvath is Navy’s leading Passer (1,261 Passing yards, 13 TD, 4 Interceptions) and Rusher (1.099 Rushing yards, 15 TD, 7.0 ypc) and the Middies rank No. 6 in Rushing (249.3 ypg) with RB Alex Tecza (525 Rushing yards, 7 TD) and RB Eli Heidenreich (421 rushing yards, 3 TD) aiding Horvath on the ground Heidenreich is also the team’s leading Receiver, catching 37 passes for 649 Receiving yards and 6 TD. Navy had 15 Receiving TD this seasonTDsso you can see how much this team has evolved.
Navy Betting Trends
- Navy is 7-3 SU/ATS over the last 10 games
- The Under is 4-1 in the Midshipmen’s last 5 games overall
- The Over went 5-1 in Navy’s 6 Home games this season
- QB Horvath was the team’s leading Passer and Rusher in 7 games
- Navy went 4-8-0 ATS in the 2023 NCAAF season (33.3%)
Oklahoma vs Navy Prediction
The Point Spread in this game opened up as (Oklahoma minus) 8.5, so you can see how much the Transfer Portal, Injuries, and Opt-outs, have affected this number with both Sharps and the general public backing the Navy at the betting window. This is the new reality in the age of the CFP and the Transfer Portal. One team (Oklahoma) has a Roster unlike its Regular Season one while the other (Navy) basically has all ofthems putting on the pads. This seems like a huge edge for the Midshipmen. This Oklahoma vs Navy NCAAF pick will side with Horvath and Navy for that reason and because the Service Academies (Army, Navy, Air Force) have fared so well in recent Bowl games and will pretty much have the same players on the field as they have had all season. It would be nice to get a 7 or more here, but this line has been beating down so much for obvious reasons, as has the Moneyline (opened OU -300, now -161).
Kevin’s Pick: Navy +3.5 (FanDuel)