Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers 12-25-2024

Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction 12/25/24 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Kansas City Chiefs Line: -3.0
Pittsburgh Steelers Line: 3.0
Total: 43.5
TV: NFLX

 

Let’s get ready for this Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction!  Game #1 for Christmas day, 12/25, is the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The forecast for the Christmas day game is a temp of 38.9 °F with 2.2 mph wind and 7 % chance of rain.  This game features a match-up of the AFC West vs AFC North.  The AFC West is the #2 ranked conference in the NFL with a 58.3% winning percentage while the AFC North is the #4 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 50%.  The 14-1 Chiefs are ranked #1 in the AFC West and the 10-5 Steelers are ranked #1 in the AFC North.

Last Week’s Re-Cap and Playoff Picture

Last week the Chiefs defeated the Texans 27 to 19, but they did allow the Texans to gain 311 yards of offense but had 2 fewer turnovers.  The Chiefs have clinched the AFC West Division crown but the Bills have the tiebreaker over the Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC so the Chiefs still have something to play for.

Last week the Steelers lost against the Ravens 17 to 34 and the Steeler defense had a rough day with the Ravens by giving up 418 yards of total offense. The Steelers have clinched a playoff berth but are tied with the Ravens at 10-5 but have the tiebreaker so they lead the division.  The Steelers have lost their last 2 games while the Ravens have won their last two games, so the Steelers are starting to get desperate to not give the division away here at the end of the season.

What are the Chiefs looking to prove against the Steelers this week?

Skill Position Impact 

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is ranked #7 for QB’s this week and he has completed 363 passes on 543 attempts and has averaged 240.5 yards per game with a completion percentage of 66.9%.  He has 23 TD’s and 11 INT’s this season. His QBR is 12.1% above the league average and he has 5 fourth quarter comebacks and 7 game winning drives this season.

The Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco is the #55 ranked RB this week and is averaging 48.7 yards per game and 3.8 yards per rush attempt while scoring 1 TD’s. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 54.5% which is 8.5% more than the league average for this statistic.

The Chiefs tight end 1 Travis Kelce is the #10 ranked TE\WR this week and is averaging 5.9 receptions per game while averaging 8.3 yards per reception to go along with 2 TD’s and 2 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 73% which is 1.8% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 59% is 4.3% more than the league average.

Wide receiver 1 for the Chiefs is DeAndre Hopkins who is ranked #54 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3.6 receptions per game with a 11.2 yards per catch average to go along with 5 TD’s and 1 fumble. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 71.1% which is 16.6% above league average and a receiving success rate of 61.8% which is 22.7% more than the league average for wide receivers.

The Chiefs have Xavier Worthy listed as WR2 for this week and is ranked as the #60 WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3.4 receptions per game with a 11 yards per catch average with 5 TD’s.  Worthy has started to really produce for the Chiefs and with Hollywood Brown but the Chiefs WR group is looking much better than in the past few years which has to work the rest of the NFL going into the playoffs.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Chiefs

The Chiefs’ offense has scored 356 points this season which is 3.7% more than the NFL average and have 14 turnovers which is an average of 0.9 turnovers per game. The Chiefs offensive per drive statistics show that 45% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 9.3% of drives end with a turnover. The Chiefs average 10.1 offensive drives per game and they average 6.9 plays, 33.7 yards, starting field position on their Own 30.0 yard line, and result in 2.33 points per drive. We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Chiefs have scored 31 red zone TD’s on 60 red zone opportunities which is 10.6% higher and 22.8% higher than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Chiefs

The defense for Chiefs has allowed 278 points in 2024 which is 19% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 18 turnovers which is an average of 1.2 turnovers per game.  The rush defense for the Chiefs is allowing 91.4 rush yards per game and 11 rushing TD’s which is 23.5% lower and 23.1% lower than league averages for rush defense stats. The Chiefs pass defense is allowing 215.8 passing yards per game, 20 TD’s, and 12 INT’s which compared to league averages are 0.7% above, 8.3% above, 10.1% above league averages respectively for passing defense. A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Chiefs defense blitzes at 33.4% with a QB hurry rate of 9.2%, a QB knockdown rate of 12.7% and a QB pressure rate of 26.3%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Chiefs 

  • Chiefs DT Chris Jones is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Head coach Andy Reid said Jones (calf) will not participate in practice, per Matt Derrick of ChiefsDigest.com.
  • Chiefs LB Jack Cochrane (ankle) was placed on injured reserve Monday.
  • Chiefs TE Peyton Hendershot has been designated to return to practice from injured reserve Monday.
  • Chiefs S Chamarri Conner is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Head coach Andy Reid said Conner (concussion) will not participate in practice, Matt Derrick of ChiefsDigest.com reports.
  • Chiefs OT Jawaan Taylor is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Head Coach Andy Reid said Taylor suffered a strained knee in Saturday’s win over the Texans, Pete Sweeney of ArrowheadPride.com reports.

There are 15 players on the Chiefs injury report for this week which is 0.4% less than the NFL average of 15.06 injuries.

Player Props

  • Isaha Pachecco has recorded 26+ rushing yards in each of his last 23 appearances.
  • Patrick Mahomes has not thrown an interception in his last 7 games as a favorite.
  • Xavier Worthy has recorded 5 or more receptions in each of the Chiefs last 4 games.

Can the Steelers get back on track against the mighty Chiefs?

Skill Position Impact 

The Steelers’ QB Russell Wilson is 6-3 as starting quarterback this season and is ranked #24 on the QB Rankings for this week.  He has completed 174 passes on 268 attempts and has averaged 236.6 yards per game.  He has a completion percentage of 64.9% with 15 TD’s and 4 INT’s. His QBR is 10.1% below the league average.

The Steelers running back Najee Harris is the #7 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 62.2 yards per game and 3.9 yards per rush attempt to go along with 5 TD’s. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 43.7% which is 13% less than the league average.

The Steelers tight end 1 Pat Freiermuth is the #62 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.3 receptions per game while averaging 10.2 yards per reception to go along with 6 TD’s and 2 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 84.7% which is 18.1% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 64.4% is 13.9% more than the league average for these statistics.

For the Steelers at wide receiver 1 is George Pickens, who has been injured, is listed as questionable this week but was a full participant in walkthrough’s this week.  He is ranked #50 for all WR\TE’s this week and he averages 4.6 catches per game with 15.5 yards per reception to go with 3 TD’s and 1 fumble. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 61.1% which is 0.2% above league average combined with a receiving success rate of 48.9% which is 2.9% less than the wide receiver league averages.  There is a significant fall off in stats to the Steelers WR2, Van Jefferson, who is ranked at #179 on the WR\TE’s ranks and averages only 1.4 receptions per game and 12.3 yards per reception with season totals of 2 TD’s so the Steelers and Wilson are hoping Pickens is healthy enough to play this week.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Steelers

The offense for the Steelers has scored 353 points so far this year which is 2.9% more than the NFL average and they have 14 turnovers on offense for an average of 0.9 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Steelers show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 41.8% of their drives whereas 8.5% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Steelers offensive per drive averages are 11 drives per game with an average of 5.9 plays, 28.8 yards, starting field position on the Steelers Own 32.2 yard line, and average 2.01 points per drive. When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Steelers have scored 24 red zone TD’s on 50 attempts which is 14.4% lower and 2.4% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Steelers

The Steelers defense has allowed 299 points so far this year which is 12.9% less than the league average for points allowed while creating 31 turnovers for an average of 2.1 turnovers per game which is 75% more than the rest of the league. The Steelers rush defense is giving up 102.7 rush yards per game to go along with 13 rushing TD’s which is respectively 14.1% lower and 9.1% lower than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Steelers is allowing 220.7 pass yards per game, 19 passing TD’s, and 16 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 1.6% below, 12.8% above, 46.8% above league averages respectively for pass defense. The Steelers advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 24.5%, QB hurry rate of 5.5%, QB knockdown rate of 12.6% and QB pressure rate of 23.7%. 

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Steelers

  • Steelers WR George Pickens is listed as questionable for this week’s game due to a hamstring but was a full participant in walkthrough at practice, per Brooke Pryor of ESPN.
  • Steelers WR Ben Skowronek is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Head coach Mike Tomlin said that he’s uncertain if Skowronek (hip) will be ready to play in the team’s Week 17 game against the Chiefs on Wednesday, Missi Matthews of the Steelers’ official site reports.
  • Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. is listed as questionable for this week’s game and Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin clarified that Porter suffered a knee injury in Saturday’s 34-17 loss to the Ravens, Mike DeFabo of The Athletic reports.

The Steelers have 15 players on their injury report which is 0.4% less than the NFL average of 15.06 injuries for this week.

Player Props

  • Russell Wilson has 205+ passing yards in 7 of his last 8 appearances against the AFC
  • Najee Harris has recorded 41+ rushing yards in 10 of 11 games
  • TJ Watt has recorded +.5 sacks in his last 13 games

Mindy’s Pick: Over 43.5

For the Chiefs and Steelers, they used their defenses to carry them in the beginning of the year but now they are looking to their offenses to make a playoff run.  Last week these two defenses gave up a combined 729 yards and 53 points to their opponents.  The best variance for this match-up is on the Total Over 43.5 points.  My modeling score projection is 50.41, so take this high variance (5.91) pick to the bank! 

 

Check out Tony T’s Christmas day Picks Here! https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/24/free-nfl-picks-for-today-12-25-2024/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!