Pittsburgh vs Toledo Prediction 12/26/2024
| What: | GameAbove Sports Bowl |
| When: | Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 2:00 EST/11:00 PST |
| Where: | Ford Field (FieldTurf), Detroit, Michigan |
| Pittsburgh vs Toledo Line: | Pittsburgh -6.5 |
| Total: | 50.5 |
| TV: | ESPN |
Pittsburgh vs Toledo Preview
Pittsburgh (7-5, 3-5 in MAC) faces Toledo (7-5, 4-4 in MAC) in the GameAbove Sports Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit on Thursday. This game used to be called the Quick Lane Bowl until this year. In their last 5 games, the Panthers went a soul-sucking 0-5, losing to SMU by 23 (48-25), Virginia by 5 (24-19), Clemson by 4 (24-20), Louisville by 28 (37-9), and Boston College by 11 (34-23). In their last 5 games, the Rockets are 2-3 and lost to Bowling Green by 15 (41-26), beat Eastern Michigan by 1 (29-28) and Central Michigan by 27 (37-10), and then lost their last 2 Regular Season Games to MAC champs Ohio by 17 (24-7) and Akron by 7 in OT (21-14). In past Bowl games, Pitt is 15-22 and won last year vs UCLA by 2 in the Sun Bowl (37-35) while Toledo is 11-10 and lost to Wyoming by 1 in the Arizona Bowl last December (16-15). Now let us get to my Prediction.
Pitt Looking to Snap a Nasty 5-Game Losing Streak
Pittsburgh (7-5-0 ATS, 5-7-0 O/U) won its first 7 games this season but then proceeded to lose its next 5 in a row, so ending the season on a high note would be nice for the Panthers (-275 Moneyline). Pitt is led by QB Eli Holstein (2.225 Passing yards), but missed the Regular Season finale due to an injury and is a question mark here. RB Desmond Reid (797 Rushing yards) was also hurt and missed the finale but is expected to play here while leading WR Konata Mumpfield (813 Receiving yards) opted out so it could be feast or famine for this team. The Panthers do have a number of guys who entered the Transfer Portal including WR Daejohn Reynolds (285 snaps) and DT Nahki Johnson (325 snaps) but Head Coach Pat Narduzzi said he expects 90% of his Seniors to play. Pitt averages 32.8 ppg (#38), allows 26.8 (#82), and averages 277.5 Passing Yards Per Game (#15) and 128.5 Rushing Yards Per Game (#101).
Pittsburgh Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh is 1-4-0 ATS in its last 5 games overall
- The Panthers won their first 7 games SU and then lost their last 5
- Pitt has scored 25 points or less in its last 5 games (25, 19, 20, 9, 23)
- The Under is 3-1-0 in the Panthers’ last 4 gamesPittsburgh vs
- Pittsburgh went 4-8-0 ATS last 2023 NCAAF season
- This will be HC Pat Narduzzi’s 7th Bowl game (school record)
Toledo Looks to Give MAC Third Bowl of the Season
Toledo (5-7-0 ATS, 7-5-0 O/U) hopes to follow in the footsteps of Ohio and Northern Illinois and make the Mid-American Conference (MAC) proud with another Bowl win here in Motown. The Rockets only have one player in the Transfer Portal (WR Larry Stephens) with 4 potential Opt-outs so we can expect to see the majority of Toledo’s main players playing in this game which is being played indoors at Ford Field. QB Tucker Gleason (2,457 Passing yards, 22 TD, 7 Interceptions; 330 Rushing yards, 6 TD, 3.8 ypc) is the leader on offense for Toleo with RB Connor Walendzak (457 Rushing yards, TD) and WR Jerjuan Newton (949 Receiving yards, 11 TD) other key skill position guys. The Rockets (+200 Moneyline) average 26.9 ppg (#750 while giving up just 21.3 ppg (Tied-#31) and average 242 Passing Yards Per Game (#41) and 120.2 Rushing Yards Per Game (#106).
Toledo Betting Trends
- Toledo is also 1-4-0 ATS in its last 5 games overall
- The Rockets went 7-7-0 ATS in the 2023 NCAAF season
- The Under is 3-0-0 in Toledo’s last 3 games
- The Rockets are 0-1-0 ATS vs Pittsburgh
- Toledo has scored a total of just 21 points in its last 2 games (7, 14)
- The Rockets have finished .500 or better 15 straight seasons
Pittsburgh vs Toledo Prediction
There are two key skill players to watch in this game Pitt RB Reid and Toledo’s WR Newton. Reid is expected to play and is one of two FBS players with more than 750 Rushing yards and 500 Rushing yards while Newton has more TDs than any other WR in Rockets history (32). Pitt hasn’t scored much in its last 2 games, but with its starting QB and Reid possibly both back. Expect Toledo to score more points here than they did in their last 2 games combined (21). Losing to Ohio was no big surprise, but the Rockets falling to Akron is a sign of weakness. When these two teams played in 2006, Pitt rolled to a 45-3 victory and easily covered ATS as a 10.5-point Home Favorite in a game that went Over (45), not because of the Panthers’ 45 but because of Toledo’s lone FG. This Pittsburgh vs Toledo NCAAF pick will expect Reid to have a big game with Pitt winning by 8 to 12.