Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Prediction 12/26/2024

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Prediction

Arkansas State (7-5, 5-3 in Sun Belt) bangs helmets with Bowling Green (7-5, 6-2 in MAC) in the 68 Ventures Bowl in Mobile, Alabama on Thursday night. In their last 5 games, the Red Wolves went 3-2, beating Troy State by 3 (34-31), lost to Louisiana by 36 (55-19), beat Georgia State by 7 to become Bowl-eligible (27-20), downed UL Monroe by 7 (28-21), and lost to Old Dominion by 8 (40-32) in the Regular Season finale. In the Falcons last 5 games, they have gone 4-1, beating Toledo by 15 (41-26), Central Michigan by 10 (23-13), Western Michigan by 18 (31-13), and Ball State by 25 (38-13) before losing to Miami Ohio in the Regular Season finale by 16 (28-12).

Arkansas State is 4-7 in 11 Bowl games and lost to Northern Illinois in the Camellia Bowl last year by 2 (21-19) while Bowling Green has a 5-9 Bowl record and has lost 7 of the previous 8, including to Minnesota last year in the Quick Lane Bowl by 6 (30-24). Played since 1999, this game has undergone many changes and last year was the first year that it was called the 68 Ventures Bowl where South Alabama trampled Eastern Michigan by 49 (59-10).

Arkansas State Faces Tough Task vs Bowling Green

Arkansas State (5-7-0 ATS, 6-6-0 O/U) is led by QB Jaylen Raynor (2,562 Passing yards, 14 TD, 9 Interceptions), RBs Zak Wallace 9622 Rushing yards, 10 TD, 4.5 ypc) and Ja’Quez Cross (600 Rushing yards, 2 TD, 5.6 ypc), and WR Corey Rucker (946 Receiving yards). The Red Wolves (+245 Moneyline) have 4 players in the Transfer Portal—TE Miller McCrumby, backup QB Timmy McClain, DE Jayden Jones, and CB Dontay Joyner—and all are expected not to toay here but DT Nate Martey will be back after missing the Regular Season finale. Arkansas State averages 24.8 ppg (Tied-#94) while allowing 32.2 ppg (#112) and average 227.1 Yards Per Game (#67) aaveraging3 Rushing Yards Per Game (#74).

Arkansas State Betting Trends

• Arkansas State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games overall
• The Red Wolves are 3-4-0 ATS in their last 7 games
• The Over is 4-2-0 in Arkansas State’s last 6 games
• The Red Wolves have scored 27 points or more in their previous 3 games
• Arkansas State went 7-6-0 ATS last 2023 NCAAF season

Bowling Green Seeking its 2nd Bowl Win in the Last 9

Bowling Green (6-6-0 ATS, 4-8-0 O/U) was a strong Under team this Regular Season and the Falcons are heavy Favorites here (-305 Moneyline) with all of their starters rumored to be playing. BGSU has 7 players in the Transfer Portal. The Falcons are led by QB Connor Bazelak (2,654 Passing yards, 15 TD, 5 Interceptions), RB Terlon Stewart (890 Rushing yards), and stud TE Harold Fannin Jr. (1,342 Receiving yards, 9 TD, 13.4 ypc). Bowling Green averages 26.8 ppg (#78) and plays some impressive defense (20.3 ppg, #20) while averaging 224.6 Passing Yards Per Game (#70) and 144.4 Rushing Yards Per Game (#83).

Bowling Green Betting Trends

• Bowling Green is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games overall
• The Falcons are 3-6-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall
• The Under is 3-1-0 in Bowling Green’s last 4 games
• The Under is 7-3-0 in the last 10 Falcons games
• Bowling Green went 8-5-0 ATS in the 2023 NCAAF season

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Prediction

The three things that stand out here when handicapping this Bowl game are 1—Bowling Green is rumored to be playing all of its starters; 2—The Falcons have a really strong defense and allow just 20.3 ppg; and 3—Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr. (6-3, 230) will play and will be a hard dude to cover. Heading in here the Junior and native of Canton, Ohio—home of the Pro Football Hall of Fame—has caught 100 passes and has 9 TD, so he will probably be featured much here and should get a TD sometime, somehow. The Falcons beat two Bowl teams in their last 5 games in Toledo and Western Michigan and beating Arkansas State is to be expected although the Point Spread is always the great equalizer. With its defense, this Arkansas State vs Bowling Green NCAAF pick will side with the Falcons to win by 10 or more in Port City on the night after Christmas.

Kevin’s Pick: Bowling Green -7.5

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