Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction 1/5/25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction 12/22/24 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction

Game Time: 8:20 PM EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Line: -4.0
Dallas Cowboys Line: 4.0
Total: 48.5
TV: NBC

 

On Sunday 12/22 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take on the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.  This game features a match-up of the NFC South vs NFC East.  The NFC South is the #7 ranked conference in the NFL with a 41.1% winning percentage while the NFC East is the #3 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 51.8%.  The 8-6 Buccaneers are ranked #1 in the NFC South and the 6-8 Cowboys are ranked #3 in the NFC East.

 

 

 

Last Week’s Re-Cap

Last week the Buccaneers beat a solid Chargers team in a strong statement with a 40 to 17 victory in which they allowed the Chargers to gain only a total of 206 yards of offense. The Buccaneers picked up the win by 23 while outgaining the Chargers by 300 yards.

Last week the Cowboys managed to get a well needed win against the Panthers 30 to 14 while only allowing the Panthers to gain 235 yards of total offense. The Cowboys won by 16 outgaining the Panthers by 175 yards and having 3 fewer turnovers than the Panthers.

Can the Buccaneers win the games that playoff teams should win?

Skill Position Impact 

The Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield is ranked #4 in this week’s QB rankings, and he has completed 328 passes on 463 attempts and has averaged 258.4 yards per game with a completion percentage of 70.8% with 32 TD’s and 14 INT’s. His QBR is 4.7% below the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comeback and 1 game winning drive this season.

The Buccaneers RB1 is Rachaad White who is the #31 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 44.1 yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush attempt while scoring 3 TD’s with 2 fumbles.  

The Buccaneers tight end 1 Cade Otton is the #32 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 4.2 receptions per game while averaging 10.2 yards per reception to go along with 4 TD’s and 2 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats puts his catch success rate at 67.8% which is 4% below league average and his receiving success rate of 51.7% is 7.4% less than the league average.

Wide receiver 1 for the Buccaneers is Mike Evans who is ranked #49 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 4.7 receptions per game with a 14.4 yards per catch average to go along with 9 TD’s. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 65.8% which is 5.7% above average and a receiving success rate of 62% which is 21.1% more than the WR average.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Buccaneers

The Buccaneers offense has scored 403 points this season which is 25.5% more than the NFL average and have 20 turnovers which is an average of 1.4 turnovers per game. The Buccaneers offensive per drive statistics show that 47% of their drives end in a score and 13.2% of drives end with a turnover. The Buccaneers average 10.8 offensive drives per game and they average 6 plays, 35.9 yards, starting field position on their Own 30.5 yard line, and result in 2.63 points per drive. We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Buccaneers have scored 36 red zone TD’s on 55 red zone opportunities which is 37.5% higher and 19.8% higher than averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Buccaneers

The defense for Buccaneers has allowed 326 points in 2024 which is 1.6% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 18 turnovers which is an average of 1.3 turnovers per game which is 8.3% more than the league average. The rush defense for the Buccaneers is allowing 109.2 rush yards per game and 12 rushing TD’s which is 8.3% lower and 10.4% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Buccaneers pass defense is allowing 247.7 passing yards per game, 23 TD’s, and 7 INT’s which compared to league averages are 14% below, 13.3% below, 30.7% below league averages respectively for passing defense. 

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Buccaneers

  • Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving (back/hip) is listed as questionable for this week’s and has practiced in a limited fashion this week.
  • Buccaneers WR Trey Palmer (illness) is listed as questionable for this week’s and is listed as a DNP on the injury report.
  • Buccaneers TE Cade Otton is listed as questionable and Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles said Friday that he expects Otton (knee) to be a game-time decision for Sunday’s matchup with Dallas, according to The Pewter Report.
  • Buccaneers S Antoine Winfield Jr. (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Cowboys, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports.
  • Buccaneers LB K.J. Britt (ankle) is listed as questionable for this week’s and has been a limited participant in practice.
  • Buccaneers WR Sterling Shepard (foot) is listed as questionable for this week’s game and has practiced on a limited basis.

There are 20 players on the Buccaneers injury report for this week which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries.

Prop Picks

  • Bucky Irving has recorded 88+ rushing yards in each of his last 3 road games
  • Jalen McMillan has recorded a longest reception of +22 yards in his last 3 games
  • Baker Mayfield has recorded 288+ passing yards in his last 4 games

What is next for the Cowboys?  Another win or another disaster?

Skill Position Impact 

The Cowboys have Cooper Rush starting at QB this after Dak’s injury and he has a 3-3 record as starting quarterback this season.  Rush is ranked #33 on the QB Rankings this week and he has completed 146 passes on 245 attempts and is averaging 140.5 yards per game with a completion percentage of 59.6% with 10 TD’s and 3 INT’s. His QBR is 38.1% below the league average and he does not have any fourth quarter comebacks or game winning drives this season.

The Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle is the #20 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 67.7 yards per game and 5 yards per rush attempt to go along with 1 TD’s and 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 58.8% which is 17.2% higher than the league average and he has been getting better as the season goes along.

The Cowboys tight end 1 Jake Ferguson is the #56 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 4.4 receptions per game while averaging 8.8 yards per reception to go along with 0 TD’s and 3 fumbles.

For the Cowboys at wide receiver 1 is CeeDee Lamb who is ranked #3 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 6.7 catches per game and 11.6 yards per reception to go with 6 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 65.3% which is 4.9% above league average.  

Overall Offense Analysis for the Cowboys

The offense for the Cowboys has scored 298 points so far this year which is 7.2% less than the NFL average and they have 24 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.7 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Cowboys show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 36.3% of their drives whereas 14.6% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Cowboys offensive per drive averages are 11.2 drives per game with an average of 6.1 plays, 29.1 yards, starting field position on the Cowboys Own 29.6 yard line, and average 1.73 points per drive. When it comes to winning in the NFL Red Zone efficiency is important and the Cowboys have only scored 19 red zone TD’s on 40 attempts which is 27.4% lower and 12.9% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Cowboys

The Cowboys defense has allowed 380 points so far this year which is 18.4% more than the league average for points allowed and have created 19 turnovers for an average of 1.4 turnovers per game which is 16.7% more than the rest of the league. The Cowboys rush defense has given up 136.1 rush yards per game and 22 rushing TD’s which is respectively 14.3% higher and 64.2% higher than rush defense average across the NFL. The pass defense for the Cowboys is allowing 219.9 pass yards per game, 21 passing TD’s, and 12 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 1.2% below, 3.4% below, 18.8% above league averages respectively for pass defense. 

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Cowboys

  • Cowboys WR Jalen Brooks (knee) is listed as questionable for this week’s game and was a limited participant in practice, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports.
  • Cowboys CB Jourdan Lewis (elbow) is listed as questionable for this week’s game and was a limited participant in walkthroughs and practices, Jon Machota of The Athletic reports.
  • Cowboys LB DeMarvion Overshown has been put on Injured Reserve and underwent a successful procedure Wednesday to repair the ACL, MCL and PCL in his right knee, Jordan Schultz of Fox Sports reports.
  • Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs is listed as Out for this week’s game and will undergo surgery this week to repair a knee cartilage injury and his recovery could take up to eight months, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports..

The Cowboys have 20 players on their injury report which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week.

Player Props:

  • Brandin Cooks has recorded 29+ receiving yards in each of his last 7 games
  • Rico Dowdle has recorded 86+ rushing yards in his last 4 games
  • CeeDee Lamb has recorded 93+ receiving yards in the Cowboys last 4 December games

Mindy’s Pick: Buccaneers -4

Overall comparison of the offenses in this match-up shows that the Buccaneers have the have the advantage in 20 of 26 offensive statistics compared to the Cowboys offense. Analysis of overall, offense, defense, and special teams efficiencies and efficiency rankings shows the Buccaneers have the advantage in 6 out of 8 efficiencies and rankings over the Cowboys.  The Buccaneers are 9-5-0 ATS this season overall and cover at 64.3% with a MOV of 5.5 points while the Cowboys are 5-9-0 ATS this year overall and cover at only 35.7% with a MOV of -5.9 points.  The pick with the best variance for this match-up is the Buccaneers on the Spread at -4 with a variance of 4.95 points.

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out the Saints vs Packers prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/22/new-orleans-saints-vs-green-bay-packers-prediction-12-23-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!