New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers 12-22-24

New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers Prediction 12/23/24 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers Prediction

Game Time: 8:15 PM EST
New Orleans Saints Line: 14.0
Green Bay Packers Line: -14.0
Total: 42.0
TV: ESPN

 

On Monday 12/23 the New Orleans Saints will take on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The forecast for Monday is for a temp of 31.2 °F with 3.8 mph wind and 27.000002% chance of rain.  This game features a match-up of the NFC South vs NFC North.  The NFC South is the #7 ranked conference in the NFL with a 41.1% winning percentage while the NFC North is the #1 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 67.9%.  The 5-9 Saints are ranked #3 in the NFC South and the 10-4 Packers are ranked #3 in the NFC North.

Last Week’s Re-Cap

Last week the Saints lost to the Commanders 19 to 20 where they decided to go for a 2-point conversion at the end of regulation that would have won them the game.  They did allow the Commanders to gain a total of 326 yards of offense but were only outscored by 1, only outgained by 81 total yards, but had 1 more turnover than the Commanders.

Last week the Packers beat up on the Seahawks 30 to 13 and allowed the Seahawks to gain only 208 yards of total offense. The Packers won by 17 and outgained the Seahawks by 161 yards and had 1 less turnover than the Seahawks.

Can the Saints pull out another almost miracle and do it on prime time?

Skill Position Impact 

You cannot talk about the Saints right now without first going over the skill position players that are currently injured or on Injured Reserve.  So here goes:

  • Saints QB Derek Carr is listed as doubtful for this week’s game and Interim coach Darren Rizzi said that if Carr (hand), who didn’t practice this week so far, isn’t able to play Monday in Green Bay, Spencer Rattler will be under center for the Saints, Mike Triplett of New Orleans Football reports.
  • Saints RB Alvin Kamara is listed as doubtful for this week’s game and Interim coach Darren Rizzi said that Kamara (thigh) isn’t likely to play Monday at Green Bay, Nick Underhill of New Orleans Football reports.
  • Saints WR Chris Olave is still on Injured Reserve and Interim coach Darren Rizzi said that Olave’s (concussion) 21-day window in which to return from injured reserve has been opened. Olave officially was limited at practice this week.
  • Saints WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling is listed as questionable for this week’s game and the latest update is Valdes-Scantling was a non-participant at practice due to a chest injury.
  • Saints TE Juwan Johnson (foot) is listed as questionable for this week’s game and was limited at practice this week.
  • Saints WR/TE/RB/QB Taysom Hill placed on Injured Reserve on 12/6/2024
  • Saints WR Rashid Shaheed placed on Injured Reserve on 8/29/2024

So it looks like the Saints will go with Spencer Rattler at quarterback this week.  Rattler, who is 0-3 as starter this season is ranked #42 for QB’s this week and has completed 69 passes on 120 attempts and is averaging 176.5 yards per game with a completion percentage of 57.5% with 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s. His QBR is 29.7% below the league average and he does not have any fourth quarter comebacks or game winning drives this season.

If the Saints RB Alvin Kamara can’t play out goes the #8 ranked RB this week and his average of 67.9 yards per game, 4.2 yards per attempt, and 6 TD’s. And he will be replaced by Jamaal Williams who is the #95 ranked RB who averages 11.7 yards per game, 3.7 yards per rush attempt, and has 1 TD.

The Saints tight end 1 Foster Moreau is the #167 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 1.6 receptions per game while averaging 13.1 yards per reception to go along with 4 TD’s for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 74.2% which is 5% above league average for tight ends.

Wide receiver 1 for the Saints is Kevin Austin Jr. who is NOT ranked in the top 550 list of players with receptions this week.  Also Saints WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling is listed as questionable with a chest issue.  This means the Saints might be down to receivers that delivered DoorDash in the offseason at any point now.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Saints

The Saints offense has scored 309 points this season which is 3.7% less than the NFL average and have 15 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game. The Saints offensive per drive statistics show that 36.8% of their drives end in either a score while 8.6% of drives end with a turnover. The Saints average 10.9 offensive drives per game and they average 5.8 plays, 30.8 yards, starting field position on their Own 31.3 yard line, and result in 2 points per drive. We all In analyzing Red Zone efficiency, the Saints have scored 24 red zone TD’s on 40 red zone opportunities which is 8.4% lower and 12.9% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Saints

The defense for Saints has allowed 312 points this season which is 2.8% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 16 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Saints is allowing 134.4 rush yards per game and 16 rushing TD’s which is 12.9% higher and 19.4% higher than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Saints pass defense is allowing 242.2 passing yards per game, 14 TD’s, and 13 INT’s which compared to league averages are 11.4% below, 31% above, 28.7% above league averages respectively for passing defense. 

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Saints (not listed above)

  • Saints DE Chase Young (illness) is listed as questionable for this week’s game did not practice this week.
  • Saints WR Bub Means is on Injured Reserve the latest update on Means (ankle) had him listed as a DNP on the injury report.

There are 16 players on the Saints injury report for this week which is 1.2% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries and is 55.9% more than the Packers.

Player Props

  • Blake Groupe has recorded 5 or more kicking points in the Saints lasts 5 games as underdogs
  • Juwan Johnson has scored a touchdown in the Saints last three December road games
  • The Saints last 6 Monday night games have gone under the total

Can the Packers keep rolling and put the NFL on notice in a showcase game on Monday Night Football?

Skill Position Impact 

The Packers QB Jordan Love has been on fire of late and is ranked #18 on the QB Rankings for this week and he has completed 226 passes on 355 attempts and has averaged 246.1 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.7% with 23 TD’s and 11 INT’s. His QBR is 13% above the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks and 2 game winning drives this season.

The Packers running back Josh Jacobs is the #3 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 81.9 yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush attempt to go along with 12 TD’s and 3 fumbles. He has began to have more and more impact on the offense and critical plays as the season has progressed.

The Packers tight end 1 Tucker Kraft is the #79 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 2.9 receptions per game while averaging 13.5 yards per reception to go along with 7 TD’s and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 73.2% which is 3.6% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 60.7% is 8.7% more than the league average.

For the Packers at wide receiver, they have more of a committee than a clear WR1, WR2, or even WR3.  This WR group is led by Romeo Doubs who is ranked #97 for all WR\TE’s this week who averages 3.4 catches per game, 14.1 yards per receptions per game, and has  4 TD’s.  Along with Jayden Reed who is ranked #55 on the WR\TE’s ranks this week and averages 3.5 receptions per game, 14.8 yards per reception, and has 6 receiving TD’s.  

Overall Offense Analysis for the Packers

The offense for the Packers has scored 379 points so far this year which is 18.1% more than the NFL average and have 16 turnovers for an average of 1.1 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Packers show they are scoring on 45.3% of their drives whereas 10% of drives end with a turnover. The Packers offensive per drive averages are 10.7 drives per game with an average of 5.8 plays, 35 yards, starting field position on the Packers Own 32.0 yard line, and average 2.48 points per drive. When it comes to Red Zone efficiency, the Packers have scored 33 red zone TD’s on 58 attempts which is 26% higher and 26.3% higher respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Packers

The Packers defense has allowed 287 points so far this year which is 10.6% less than the league average while creating 26 turnovers for an average of 1.9 turnovers per game which is 58.3% more than the league average.  The Packers rush defense is giving up 105 rush yards per game to go along with 12 rushing TD’s which is respectively 11.8% lower and 10.4% lower than rush defense league averages. The pass defense for the Packers is allowing 215.4 pass yards per game, 19 passing TD’s, and 14 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 0.9% above, 6.4% above, 38.6% above league averages respectively for pass defense. 

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Packers

  • Packers OT Jordan Morgan is out for the rest of the season due to his recurring right shoulder injury, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports.
  • Packers RB MarShawn Lloyd is listed as Out for this week’s but Packers coach Matt LaFleur said Thursday that he hasn’t shut the door on the idea of Lloyd (appendix) playing again this season, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers’ official site reports.
  • Packers S Javon Bullard is listed as questionable for this week’s game and the latest update is Bullard (ankle) has not participated in practice so far this week, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports.
  • Packers TE Luke Musgrave (ankle) is still on Injured Reserve and may not play in this week’s game as he has been limited at practice, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers’ official site reports.
  • Packers LB Quay (ankle) is still on Injured Reserve and may not play in this week’s game as he has been limited at practice, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports.

The Packers have 7 players on their injury report which is 56.8% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 55.9% less than the Saints.

Player Props

  • Tucker Kraft has recorded 26+ receiving yards in his last 8 games
  • Josh Jacobs has recorded 106+ rushing and receiving yards in his last 5 games as favorites
  • Jordan Love has recorded 258+ passing yards in his last 10 home appearances

Mindy’s Pick: Packers -14.0

Overall comparison of the offenses in this match-up shows that the Packers have the advantage in 18 of 24 offensive statistics compared to the Saints offense and that was without all the lost offense due to injuries.  Then the overall defensive stats analysis indicates that the Packers are better in 21 of 26 defensive categories compared to the Saints defense.  Then the overall comparison of team efficiency numbers have the Saints ranked #19 while the Packers are ranked #5 in this week’s ranking list.  The Saints are 6-8-0 ATS this season overall and cover at only 42.9% with a MOV of -0.2 points while the Packers this year are 8-6-0 ATS overall this year and cover at 57.1% with a MOV of 6.6 points.  The pick for this match-up is the Packers on the Spread at -14.0 with a variance of 3.6 points.

 

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!