Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction 1/5/25 NFL

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction 12/22/24 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Tennessee Titans Line: 3.5
Indianapolis Colts Line: -3.5
Total: 41.5
TV: CBS

 

On Sunday 12/22 the Tennessee Titans will take on the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.  This game features a match-up of two AFC South teams.  The AFC South is the #8 ranked conference in the NFL with a 37.5% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 3-11 Titans are ranked #4 in the AFC South and the 6-8 Colts are ranked #2.

Last Week’s Re-Cap

Last week the Titans lost against the Bengals 27 to 37 in which they allowed the Bengals to gain a total of 370 yards of offense. The Titans were outscored by 10 points but managed to gain 4 more yards than the Bengals even while having 2 more turnovers.

Last week the Colts lost against the Broncos 13 to 31 while allowing the Broncos to gain 193 yards of total offense. The Colts were outscored by 18 even without gaining the Broncos by 117 yards but they had 2 more turnovers against the Broncos.

Can the Titans Win on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

The Titans carousel is turning again and will go with Mason Rudolph this week who has a record of 1-2 as starting quarterback this season. Rudolph is ranked #38 for QB’s this week and last I checked there are only 32 teams so that isn’t great.  He has completed 97 passes on 154 attempts and has averaged 203 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63% with 6 TD’s and 5 INT’s. His QBR is 9% below the league average and he has 0 fourth quarter comebacks and 1 game winning drives this season.

The Titans running back Tony Pollard is the #6 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 70.1 yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush attempt while scoring 5 TD’s and having 2 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 48.7% which is 3% less than the league average for this statistic.

The Titans tight end 1 Chig Okonkwo is the #94 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 2.7 receptions per game while averaging 9.4 yards per reception to go along with 2 TD’s and 2 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 73.1% which is 3.5% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 51.9% is 7% less than the league average for these statistics.

Wide receiver 1 for the Titans is Calvin Ridley who is ranked #48 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3.8 receptions per game with a 14.7 yards per catch average to go along with 3 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a catch success rate of 51% which is 18.1% below league average and a receiving success rate of 41.3% which is 19.3% less than the league average for wide receivers in this statistical category.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Titans

The Titans offense has scored 254 points this season which is 20.9% less than the NFL average and have 29 turnovers which is an average of 2.1 turnovers per game. The Titans offensive per drive statistics show that 30% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 16.9% of drives end with a turnover. The Titans average 11.4 offensive drives per game and they average 5.5 plays, 26.2 yards, starting field position on their Own 30.1 yard line, and result in 1.58 points per drive. We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Titans have scored 20 red zone TD’s on 38 red zone opportunities which is 23.6% lower and 17.2% lower than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Titans

The defense for Titans has allowed 379 points in 2024 which is 18.1% more than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 16 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Titans is allowing 115.2 rush yards per game and 16 rushing TD’s which is 3.2% lower and 19.4% higher than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Titans pass defense is allowing 182.2 passing yards per game, 23 TD’s, and 10 INT’s which compared to league averages are 16.2% above, 13.3% below, 1% below league averages respectively for passing defense. A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Titans defense blitzes at 20.2% with a QB hurry rate of 5.5%, a QB knockdown rate of 7.3% and a QB pressure rate of 17.6%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Titans

  • Titans LB Kenneth Murray Jr. (hamstring) will be a game-time decision for Sunday’s matchup against the Colts, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.
  • Titans LB Luke Gifford (concussion) will miss Sunday’s game against the Colts, Jim Wyatt of the Titans’ official site reports.
  • Titans PK Nick Folk (abdomen) is listed as questionable and Coach Brian Callahan said Friday that Folk will be a game-time decision for Sunday’s game against the Colts, Turron Davenport of ESPN.com reports.
  • Titans WR Tyler Boyd (foot) is listed as questionable didn’t practice most of this week.
  • Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (ankle) is listed as questionable didn’t practice so far this week.
  • Titans RB Tony Pollard is listed as questionable didn’t practice so far this week.

There are 20 players on the Titans injury report for this week which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries and is 64.9% less than the Colts.

Player Props:

  • Calvin Ridley has recorded 63+ receiving yards in his last 5 road games
  • Tyler Boyd has recorded 34+ receiving yards in his last 5 games
  • Tony Pollard has recorded 91+ rushing yards in each of his previous appearances vs the Colts

Can the Colts Win on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

The Colts will go with Anthony Richardson who has a record of 5-5 as starting quarterback and is ranked #32 on the QB Rankings for this week.  He has completed 119 passes on 253 attempts and has averaged 168.3 yards per game with a completion percentage of 47% with 7 TD’s and 11 INT’s. His QBR is 21.4% below the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks and 3 game winning drives this season.

The Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is the #14 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 82.8 yards per game and 4.4 yards per rush attempt to go along with 5 TD’s and 4 fumbles. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 39.4% which is 21.5% less than the league average for this statistic.

The Colts tight end 1 Mo Alie-Cox is the #241 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 0.8 receptions per game while averaging 12 yards per reception to go along with 1 TD’s and 0 fumbles for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 61.1% which is 13.5% below league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 61.1% is 9.4% more than the league average for these statistics.

For the Colts at wide receiver 1 is Michael Pittman Jr. who is ranked #50 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 4 catches per game and 11.7 yards per reception to go with 2 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 59.1% which is 5.1% below league average combined with a receiving success rate of 46.6% which is 8.9% less than the wide receiver league averages.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Colts

The offense for the Colts has scored 280 points so far this year which is 12.8% less than the NFL average and they have 25 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.8 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Colts show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 33.5% of their drives whereas 15.8% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Colts offensive per drive averages are 11.3 drives per game with an average of 5.4 plays, 27.5 yards, starting field position on the Colts Own 28.5 yard line, and average 1.74 points per drive. When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Colts have scored 22 red zone TD’s on 41 attempts which is 16% lower and 10.7% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Colts

The Colts defense has allowed 329 points so far this year which is 2.5% more than the league average for points allowed while creating 21 turnovers for an average of 1.5 turnovers per game which is 25% more than the rest of the league. The Colts rush defense is giving up 141.6 rush yards per game to go along with 14 rushing TD’s which is respectively 18.9% higher and 4.5% higher than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Colts is allowing 224.4 pass yards per game, 20 passing TD’s, and 12 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 3.2% below, 1.5% above, 18.8% above league averages respectively for pass defense. The Colts advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 18.4%, QB hurry rate of 8.9%, QB knockdown rate of 8.1% and QB pressure rate of 22.5%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Colts

  • Colts WR Alec Pierce (concussion) won’t play Sunday against the Titans, Amanda Foster of the Colts’ official site reports.
  • Colts LB E.J. Speed (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Titans, Nate Atkins of The Indianapolis Star reports.
  • Colts WR Ashton Dulin is listed as questionable for this week’s game and was a limited participant in practice.
  • Colts PK Matt Gay is listed as questionable for this week’s game as of 3 days ago.  The latest update is Gay (neck) did not participate in Thursday’s practice.
  • Colts TE Mo Alie-Cox (hip) is listed as questionable for this week’s game and has not practiced this week.
  • Colts CB JuJu Brents (knee) has been designated for return from injured reserve.

The Colts have 17 players on their injury report which is 5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 64.9% more than the Titans.

Player Props:

  • Jonathan Taylor has recorded 91+rushing yards in his last 5 appearances
  • Michael Pittmann Jr. has recorded 63+ receiving yards in his last 3 home games
  • Michael Pittmann Jr. has scored a touchdown in his last 3 games vs the Titans

Mindy’s Pick: Under 41.5

Analysis of overall, offense, defense, and special teams efficiencies show the Titans having the advantage in literally 0 of the 8 efficiencies and rankings categories available.  Overall team efficiency stats have the Titans ranked #28 while the Colts come in ranked #23 in this week’s ranking list.  The Over\Under in the Colts games are 6-7-1 and the under has come in 53.9% of the time with a +/- of -0.9 points.  Mason Rudolph might add a spark to the Titans, but they are still not good, and the Colts Richardson has trouble with accuracy and misses open receivers.  The makes the best bet for this match-up is on the total and is the Under 41.5 points.  My score projections for the total of this game is 38.11 so this pick has a variance of 3.39 points.

 

If you enjoyed this article, check out my Rams vs Jets Prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/21/los-angeles-rams-vs-new-york-jets-prediction-12-22-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!