San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins 12/22/24

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction 12/22/24 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction

Game Time: 4:25 PM EST
San Francisco 49ers Line: 1.0
Miami Dolphins Line: -1.0
Total: 44.5
TV: CBS

 

On Sunday 12/22 the San Francisco 49ers will take on the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 72.9°F with 9.2 mph wind and 9% chance of rain.  This game features a match-up of the NFC West vs AFC East.  The NFC West is the #3 ranked conference in the NFL with a 51.8% winning percentage while the AFC East is the #6 ranked conference with a winning percentage of 42.9%.  The 6-8 49ers are ranked #4 in the NFC West and the 6-8 Dolphins are ranked #2 in the AFC East.

Last Week’s Re-Cap

The 49ers lost to the Rams 6 to 12 last week and allowed the Rams to gain a total of 302 yards of offense but were only outscored by 6 even though the 49ers were outgained by 111 yards.

Last week the Dolphins lost against the Texans 12 to 20 even though they only allowed the Texans to gain 181 yards of total offense. The Dolphins were outscored by 8 even with outgaining the Texans by 43 yards but having 3 more turnovers than the Texans does not help you win.

What can the 49ers do to stay in the playoff race in this game against the Dolphins this Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

The 49ers Brock Purdy is only 6-7 as starting QB this year and is getting a little taste of how bad the struggle can be to win games in the NFL for the first time in his short career.  Purdy is ranked #15 for QB’s this week and has completed 247 passes on 380 attempts for an average of 244.2 yards per game and a completion percentage of 65% with 15 TD’s and 9 INT’s. His QBR is 11.1% above the league average and he has 1 fourth quarter comeback and 1 game winning drive this season.

The 49ers running back Isaac Guerendo is the #55 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 27.2 yards per game and 5.2 yards per rush attempt while scoring 4 TD’s and having 3 fumbles. Guerendo has been listed as questionable all week and the latest update from the 49ers is that they are not expecting to have Guerendo (due to hamstring) available for Sunday’s game against the Dolphins, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.

The 49ers tight end 1 George Kittle is the #30 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 5 receptions per game while averaging 14.4 yards per reception to go along with 8 TD’s for the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 81.1% which is 14.8% above league average for tight ends and his receiving success rate of 70.3% is 25.9% more than the league average.

Wide receiver 1 for the 49ers is Deebo Samuel Sr. who is ranked #72 for WR\TE’s this week.  He averages 3.3 receptions per game with a 13.2 yards per catch average with 1 TD’s and 1 for the season. When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he has a receiving success rate of 36.6% which is 28.5% less than the league average for wide receivers in this statistical category.

Listed as WR2 is the 49ers Jauan Jennings but he really has outshined the other highly touted wide receivers from the 49ers this season.  He is ranked as the #31 WR\TE’s and he is averaging 4.9 receptions per game, 13.6 yards per catch, and has 6 TD’s on the season. Advanced receiving stats show him as having a catch success rate of 67.8% which is 6.3% above league average along with a receiving success rate of 55.2% which is 4.8% more than the league average a very good for a WR2’s in this stat metric.

Overall Offense Analysis for the 49ers

The 49ers offense has scored 314 points this season which is 2.2% less than the NFL average and have 21 turnovers which is an average of 1.5 turnovers per game. The 49ers offensive per drive statistics have 42.4% of their drives ending in either a score or 12.5% of drives ending a turnover. The 49ers average 10.3 offensive drives per game, average 6 plays, 35.4 yards, starting field position on their Own 29.6 yard line, and result in 2.1 points per drive. When it come to the all important Red Zone efficiency, the 49ers have scored 27 red zone TD’s on 51 red zone opportunities which is 3.1% higher and 11.1% higher than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the 49ers

The defense for 49ers has not been the dominant defense of the past and has allowed 320 points in 2024 which is 0.3% less than the NFL average and have caused 17 turnovers which is an average of 1.2 turnovers per game. The rush defense for the 49ers is allowing 117.8 rush yards per game and 19 rushing TD’s which is 1.1% lower and 41.8% higher than league averages respectively for rush defense and is one of the big reasons why the defense is allowing more points this year . The 49ers pass defense has remained above average allowing 181 passing yards per game, 17 TD’s, and 11 INT’s which compared to league averages are 16.7% above, 16.3% above, 8.9% above league averages respectively for passing defense categories. 

Significant Injury Report Updates for the 49ers

  • 49ers DE Nick Bosa is listed as questionable for this week’s game with a oblique/hip injury  and was a non-participant at the 49ers’ practice most of the week.
  • 49ers RB Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) in not expected to be available for Sunday’s game against the Dolphins, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
  • 49ers S Malik Mustapha is listed as questionable for this week’s game with an injury to his chest and he has been a limited participant practice.
  • 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw is listed as questionable for this week’s with an achilles/knee issue and was listed as a limited practice participant this week.

There are 20 players on the 49ers injury report for this week which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries.

Prop Picks:

  • George Kittle has recorded 57+ receiving yards in his last 9 games
  • Brock Purdy has recorded 255+ passing yards in his last 5 games
  • Deebo Samuel has recorded 54+ receiving yards in his last 4 games vs the AFC

What Dolphins team will show up this Sunday against the 49ers?

Skill Position Impact 

The Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is 5-5 as starting quarterback this season and is #21 on the QB Rankings this week.  He has completed 269 passes on 365 attempts while averaging 265.2 yards per game with a completion percentage of 73.7% and 18 TD’s and 7 INT’s. His QBR is 4.3% above the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks and 2 game winning drives this season.

The Dolphins running back De’Von Achane is the #23 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 45.8 yards per game and 3.9 yards per rush attempt to go along with 4 TD’s and 1 fumble. He has not been the game changer he was last year and the Dolphins have definitely missed that dynamic.

The Dolphins tight end 1 Jonnu Smith has exploded on the scene and is the #19 ranked TE\WR this week and is averaging 5 receptions per game while averaging 10.6 yards per reception to go along with 6 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 78.7% which is 11.4% above league average for tight ends and a receiving success rate of 65.2% is 16.8% more than the league averages for these statistics.

For the Dolphins at wide receiver 1 is Tyreek Hill who is ranked #23 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 4.8 catches per game and 12 yards per reception to go with 5 TD’s on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate which is 3.4% above league averages and a  receiving success rate 4.3% less than the wide receiver league averages is not what Tyreek or the Dolphins were looking for this year.  

Overall Offense Analysis for the Dolphins

The offense for the Dolphins has scored 276 points so far this year which is 14% less than the NFL average and they have 17 turnovers on offense for an average of 1.2 turnovers per game. For this offense with the speed and athleticism of the Dolphins, this is far below what they would have set as goals for this season.  The Dolphins offensive per drive averages are 10.4 drives per game for an average of 6.3 plays, 30.7 yards, starting field position on the Dolphins Own 29.5 yard line, and an average of 1.92 points per drive. When winning comes down to the smallest details of execution, the Dolphins’ Red Zone efficiency will leave the Dolphins scratching their heads as they have scored 25 red zone TD’s on 43 attempts which is 4.5% lower and 6.3% lower respectively than NFL red zone averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Dolphins

The Dolphins defense has allowed 312 points this year which is 2.8% less than the league average while creating 12 turnovers for an average of 0.9 turnovers per game which is 25% less than the league average. The Dolphins rush defense is giving up 103.6 rush yards per game to go along with 12 rushing TD’s which is respectively 13% lower and 10.4% lower than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Dolphins is allowing 205 pass yards per game, 16 passing TD’s, and 7 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 5.7% above, 21.2% above, 30.7% below league averages respectively for pass defense. 

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Dolphins

  • Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is listed as questionable for this week’s game due to a hip issue and has remained limited at practice this week, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.
  • Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle (knee) will be listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game against the 49ers, Travis Wingfield of the Dolphins’ official site reports.
  • Dolphins WR Grant DuBose (head) is on Injured Reserve and has returned home after spending multiple days in a Houston-area hospital following last Sunday’s injury against the Texans, Dan Rorabaugh of The Palm Beach Post reports.
  • Dolphins WR Dee Eskridge (knee) will be doubtful for Sunday’s game against the 49ers, Travis Wingfield of the Dolphins’ official site reports.

The Dolphins have 20 players on their injury report which is 23.5% more than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week.

Prop Picks:

  • Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 288+ passing yards in his last 3 home games
  • Jonnu Smith has scored a touchdown in his last 4 games
  • De’Von Achane has scored a touchdown in his last 4 home games

Mindy’s Pick: 49ers +1

To say the advantages in this game are slight is an understatement.  With score projections that have a variance of .38 for the Moneyline pick, 1.44 for the Spread pick, and .66 for the Total, this is the ultimate definition of a “pick-em”.  Overall comparison of the offenses in this match-up shows that the 49ers have the have the advantage in 17 of 26 offensive statistics compared to the Dolphins offense.   Overall defensive stat comparison shows that the 49ers have the advantage in 15of 25 defensive categories compared to the Dolphins.  Analysis of overall, offense, defense, and special teams efficiencies, shows the 49ers have the advantage in 6 out of 8 efficiencies and rankings.  The pick for this match-up is the 49ers on the Spread at +1 but with a tight variance of 1.38 points.

 

If you enjoyed this article, make sure you check out my Buccaneers vs Cowboys Prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/22/tampa-bay-buccaneers-vs-dallas-cowboys-prediction-12-22-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!