New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction 1/5/25 NFL

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders Prediction 12/22/24 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders Prediction

Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
Philadelphia Eagles Line: -3.5
Washington Commanders Line: 3.5
Total: 45.5
Game Time: 1:00 PM EST

 

On Sunday 12/22 the Philadelphia Eagles will take on the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland. The forecast for Sunday is for a temp of 29 °F with 8.1 mph wind and 0 % chance of rain. This game features a match-up of two NFC East teams.  The NFC East is the #3 ranked conference in the NFL with a 51.8% Win-Loss percentage as a conference.  The 12-2 Eagles are ranked #1 in the NFC East and the 9-5 Commanders are ranked #2.

Last Week’s Re-Cap

Last week the Eagles defeated the Steelers 27 to 13 and only allowed the Steelers to gain a total of 163 yards of offense. The Eagles picked up the win by 14 while out gaining the Steelers by 238 yards but did have 1 more turnover that the Steelers.

Last week the Commanders got the victory against the Saints 20 to 19 and allowed the Saints to gain 245 yards of total offense in that game. The Commanders won by 1 while out gaining the Saints by 81 yards but overall, this was a letdown for the Commanders who should be able to dominate a very injured Saints team.

Can the Eagles Win on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

Eagle QB Jalen Hurts is ranked #20 for QB’s this week and he has completed 247 passes on 357 attempts and for an average of 206.6 yards per game and a completion percentage of 69.2% along with 18 TD’s and 5 INT’s. His QBR is 11.4% above the league average and he has 3 fourth quarter comebacks and 4 game winning drives this season.

The Eagles were thankful to have the New York Giants decide to pay Daniel Jones instead of Saquon Barkley and I’m sure Saquon feels the same right about now.  Go ahead and keep those paper bags on your heads Giants fans!!  Saquon Barkley is the #1 ranked RB this week and he is averaging 120.6 yards per game and 5.9 yards per rush attempt while scoring 11. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 54.7% which is 9% more than the league average for this statistic.

The Eagles tight end 1 Grant Calcaterra is the #175 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 1.5 receptions per game while averaging 12.1 yards per reception to go along with 1 TD’s on the season. The advanced receiving stats put his catch success rate at 87.5% which is 23.9% above league average for tight ends but keep in mind this is a small sample size.

Wide receiver 1 for the Eagles is A.J. Brown has been listed as questionable all week on the Eagles injury report but he has said he will play this Sunday.  Brown is ranked #35 for WR\TE’s this week and averages 5.1 receptions per game with a 16.9 yards per catch average and 5 TD’s on the season.  When it comes to the advanced receiving stats, he’s catch success rate of 72.7% which is 16.7% above league average and receiving success rate of 67.5% which is 31.9% more than the NFL average for wide receivers puts him definitely in the top-tier of wide receivers.

The Eagles also have DeVonta Smith as WR2 and he is ranked as the #38 WR\TE’s this week to compliment Brown.  He averages 5.1 receptions per game with a 11.8 yards per catch average with 6 TD’s on the year. Advanced receiving stats also above league averages with a catch success rate 18.7% above league average and a receiving success rate 13% more than the league average.

Overall Offense Analysis for the Eagles

The Eagles offense has scored 369 points this season which is 15% more than the NFL average and have 13 turnovers which is an average of 0.9 turnovers per game. The Eagles offensive per drive statistics show that 43% of their drives end in either a FG or touchdown while 7.4% of drives end with a turnover. The Eagles average 10.6 offensive drives per game and they average 6.3 plays, 35.1 yards, starting field position on their Own 30.9 yard line, and result in 2.47 points per drive. We all know the importance of Red Zone efficiency and the Eagles have scored 32 red zone TD’s on 55 red zone opportunities which is 22.2% higher and 19.8% higher than league averages respectively.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Eagles

The Eagles defense has allowed 247 points this year which is 23.1% less than the NFL average for points allowed while causing 16 turnovers which is an average of 1.1 turnovers per game which is 8.3% less than the league average. The rush defense for the Eagles is giving up 102.2 rush yards per game and 9 rushing TD’s which is 14.2% lower and 32.8% lower than league averages respectively for rush defense stats. The Eagles pass defense is allowing 173.4 passing yards per game, 15 TD’s, and 8 INT’s which compared to league averages are 20.2% above, 26.1% above, 20.8% below league averages respectively for passing defense. A look into the advanced team defense stats show that the Eagles defense blitzes at 17.9% with a QB hurry rate of 4.3%, a QB knockdown rate of 8.3% and a QB pressure rate of 19.1%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Eagles

  • Eagles WR A.J. Brown (knee) is listed as questionable for this week’s game, but he said Friday that he’ll play Sunday at Washington, per Andrew DiCecco of InsideTheBirds.com.
  • Eagles G Landon Dickerson is listed as questionable for this week’s game and was a limited participant in practice Thursday, though his injury was labeled as knee/rest.
  • Eagles DE Bryce Huff (wrist)  was designated for return to practice from its injured reserve list on Wednesday.

There are 10 players on the Eagles injury report for this week which is 38.2% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries and is 67.8% less than the Commanders.

Player Props

  • AJ Brown has recorded 66+ receiving yards in each of the Eagles last 5 road games
  • Jalen Hurts has recorded 214+ passing yards in his last 7 games vs the Commanders
  • Saquon Barkley has recorded 124+ rushing yards in each of the last 3 NFC games

Can the Commanders Win on Sunday?

Skill Position Impact 

The Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels has led the Commanders to a record of 9-5 so far this season which is a big improvement over last year.  Daniels is ranked #17 on the QB Rankings this week and he has completed 277 passes on 393 attempts and has averaged 217.5 yards per game with an outstanding completion percentage of 70.5% with 17 TD’s and 6 INT’s. His QBR is 15.5% above the league average and he has 2 fourth quarter comebacks and 2 game winning drives this season.

The Commanders RB1 is Brian Robinson Jr. who is the #24 ranked RB this week and is averaging 64.1 yards per game and 4.4 yards per rush attempt to go along with 8 TD’s. He has an advanced rushing success rate of 51.6% which is 2.8% more than the league average for this statistic.

The Commanders tight end 1 Zach Ertz is the #42 ranked TE\WR this week and he is averaging 3.9 receptions per game while averaging 9.7 yards per reception to go along with 4 TD’s and 1 fumble for the season. The advanced receiving stats put receiving success rate of 59.7% is 6.9% more than the league average for these statistics.

For the Commanders at WR1 is the reliable as always Terry McLaurin who is ranked #22 for all WR\TE’s this week in the NFL.  He averages 4.9 catches per game and 14.3 yards per reception to go with 11 TD’s and 1 fumble on the season. The advanced receiving stats show he has a catch success rate of 73.9% which is 18.7% above league average and has a receiving success rate of 62% which is 21.1% more than the wide receiver league averages.   

Overall Offense Analysis for the Commanders

The offense for the Commanders has scored 396 points so far this year which is 23.4% more than the NFL average and they have 9 turnovers on offense for an average of 0.6 turnovers per game. The offense per drive stats for the Commanders show they are scoring a FG or touchdown in 51.7% of their drives whereas 5.6% of drives end with a fumble or interception. The Commanders offensive per drive averages are 10.2 drives per game with an average of 6.6 plays, 36.5 yards, starting field position on the Commanders Own 31.9 yard line, and average 2.73 points per drive. When it comes to winning in the NFL, Red Zone efficiency is critical, and the Commanders have scored 35 red zone TD’s on 58 attempts which is 33.7% higher and 26.3% higher respectively than the NFL averages.

Overall Defense Analysis for the Commanders

The Commanders defense has allowed 315 points so far this year while creating 14 turnovers for an average of 1 turnovers per game which is 16.7% less than the rest of the league. The Commanders rush defense is giving up 132.1 rush yards per game to go along with 13 rushing TD’s which is respectively 11% higher and 3% lower than rush defense averages across the league. The pass defense for the Commanders is allowing 189.6 pass yards per game, 23 passing TD’s, and 5 INT’s which if compared to league averages is 12.8% above, 13.3% below, 50.5% below league averages respectively. The Commanders advanced team metrics have the defense blitzing at 29.6%, QB hurry rate of 7.8%, QB knockdown rate of 9.3% and QB pressure rate of 23.5%.

Significant Injury Report Updates for the Commanders

  • Commanders DT Jonathan Allen is on Injured Reserve and has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against Philadelphia, Nicki Jhabvala of The Washington Post reports.
  • Commanders S Jeremy Chinn is listed as questionable for this week’s game due to a concussion and was a limited participant in practice.
  • Commanders TE Zach Ertz (concussion) was listed as questionable this but did practice on a limited basis.
  • Commanders WR Luke McCaffrey is listed as questionable for this week’s game.
  • Commanders RB Kazmeir Allen (ankle) was placed on the Commanders practice squad injured list Tuesday.

The Commanders have 15 players on their injury report which is 7.4% less than the NFL average of 16.19 injuries for this week and is 67.8% more than the Eagles.

Player Props

  • Terry McLauren has recorded 73+ receiving yards in his last 6 home games
  • Jayden Daniels has recorded 202+ passing yards in his last 4 home games
  • Brian Robinson has recorded 63+ rushing yards in his last 6 games

Mindy’s Pick: Over 45.5

Overall team efficiency stats have the Eagles ranked #4 while the Commanders come in ranked #9 in this week’s ranking list.  The Commanders know they don’t have the defense to hold the Eagles to a low scoring game so look for the Commanders to push the ball up the field and try to out-score the Eagles.  The Over is 9-5-0 in the Commanders games this year and covers at 64.3% with a +/- of 4.8 points.  The best bet for this match-up is on the total and is the Over 45.5 points.  My score projections for the total of this game is 53.33 so this pick has a comfortable variance of 7.83 points.

 

If you enjoyed this article check out my Cardinals vs Panthers Prediction here: https://www.tonyspicks.com/2024/12/21/arizona-cardinals-vs-carolina-panthers-prediction-12-22-24-nfl-pick/

 

About Mindy: 

Mindy has been in the business of picking winners for over 30 years.  Her analytical mind has given her the insight to find the edges over Vegas in all the major sports.  This is her 4th year at Tony’s Picks and loves to give out her Data Driven Picks.  If you love Mindy’s free picks make sure you check out the link to her profile page here, to get her very best picks every day.  Mindy has been crushing the books this NFL season and is 26-3 on her Moneyline predictions this year!!!  Let’s get some wins!