Northern Illinois vs Fresno State Prediction 12/23/2024
| What: | Famous Idaho Potato Bowl |
| When: | Monday, December 23, 2024 at 2:30 EST/11:30 PST |
| Where: | Albertsons Stadium (FieldTurf Blue), Boise, Idaho |
| Northern Illinois vs Fresno State Line: | NIU -3 |
| Total: | 39.5 |
| TV: | ESPN |
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State Prediction
Northern Illinois (7-5, 4-4 in MAC) meets Fresno State (6-6, 4-3 in MWC) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on The Blue of Albertson Stadium in Boise, Idaho on Monday afternoon. In their last 5 games, the Huskies fell to Ball State by 2 (25-23), beat Western Michigan by 14 (42-28) and Akron by 13 (29-16), lost to MAC runners-up Miami of Ohio by 11 (20-9), and then beat Central Michigan by 8 in their Regular Season finale (24-16). In their last 5 games, the Bulldogs went 2-3, beating San José State by 23 (33-10), losing to Hawai’i by 1 (21-20) and Air Force by 8 (36-38), besting Colorado State by 6 (28-22), and then losing at new Big Ten members UCLA by 7 in their last Regular Season game (20-13).
Northern Illinois Seeks 2nd Straight Bowl Win
Northern Illinois (5-.6-1 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U) hasn’t been that great in its past Bowl games, going just 5-10 and losing 7 straight before beating Arkansas State by 2 in the Camellia Bowl last year (21-19). The Huskies (-148 Moneyline) are the small Favorites here on the sacred Smurf Turf where the Weather won’t be so bad (44° to 47°). NIU is sort of an enigma, a team that could upset Notre Dame in South Bend earlier this year but also lose to lowly Balosttate (3-9). The Huskies are led by QB Ethan Hampton (1,600 Passing yards), RB Gavin Williams (741 Rushing yards), and WR Trayvon Rudolph (392 Receiving yards). NIU has many guys on several er Portal, including QB Hampton (signed with Wake Forest), WR Rudolph (not on the Depth Chart), starting S Santana Banner (signed with Missouri), starting DT Skyler Gill-Howard (signed with Texas Tech), and starting DE Jalonnie Williams (not on the Depth Chart), among others. QB Josh Holst (411 Passing yards, 0 TD, 1 Interception) will reportedly get the start with Jalen Macon (50 Passing yards) serving as the backup.
Northern Illinois Betting Trends
- Northern Illinois is 0-3-0 ATS in its last 3 games overall
- The Huskies were just 1-4-1 ATS at Home this season (covered ATS WIU)
- NIU has allowed 20 points or less in its last 3 games (18, 20, 18)
- The Under is 2-0-0 in the Huskies last 2Huskies’NIU is 7-4 ATS in the First Quarter last 11 games (+1.95 Units,15% ROI)
Fresno State Has Many in Transfer Portal, Like NIU
Fresno State (6-5-1 ATS, 5-7-0 O/U) will be led by Interim Head Coach Tim Skipper after hiring Matt Entz as its new Head Coach. Like NIU, the Bulldogs (+124 Moneyline) have several guysseveralnsfer Portal, including starting QB Mikey Keane (2,892 Passing yards), WR Mac Dalena (Declared for NFL Draft, not on Depth Chart), WR Jalen Moss as well as 4 starters from the defense. Joshua Wood or Jayden Mandal could start at QB. This game is yet another glaring example of why the Transfer Portal should open after the Bowl games have been played. Fresno State (+124 Moneyline) has played some good teams including defending national champions Michigan in the season opener, Washington State, and UNLV but won’t be as potent without all of these starters on the blue turf in Boise on Monday afternoon. This is one of the lowest Totals of all the Bowls.
Fresno State Betting Trends
- Fresno State is just 2-0-0 ATS in its last 2 games
- The Bulldogs are 5-0 on First Half Moneyline L5 (+6.00 Units, 52% ROI)
- The Under in the last 6 Fresno State games is 4-2
- Fresno State is 1-3 SU in its last 4 games
- These two teams also played in the 2010 Humanitarian Bowl
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State Prediction
These two have met once before, in the 2010 Humanitarian Bowl where Northern Illinois rolled to a 40-17 victory despite the Bulldogs winning the Time of Possession battle (35:53 to 24:07). The Huskies easily covered the small 1.5-point Spread as the game’s Favorites. It went Over the closing Total (56.5) by the hair on my chinny-chin-chin (0.5 point) on a Fresno StpointsD with 5:31 left. Like the Myrtle Beach Bowl earlier in the day, neither team has much incentive to win here and will be playing with a shadow squad of the actual players who helped them own this Bowl berth. This Northern Illinois vs Fresno State NCAAF pick will lean slightly to the Over in the Totals market with the Weather decent, the turf friendly, and neither defense caring as much as they should about winning and preventing these backup QBs from scoring points. There are much better games to bet on honestly than these two on Monday. This Total has been steadily beaten down from its opening 42.5 as the Transfer Portal names came out for both schools.